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  • Oil Rebound Will Fuel A 'Rip Your Face Off' Rally In The Stock Market  [View article]
    Yes, that is a huge difference and thanks for noticing that. I was relying on "trusted news sources" for their interpretation of the data. With the economics of oil so complicated, fully understanding the information storm is difficult without a lot of expertise in the industry.
    Feb 9, 2016. 01:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rebound Will Fuel A 'Rip Your Face Off' Rally In The Stock Market  [View article]
    The question is...how much is a barrel of oil worth? How long is a piece of string?
    Marginal producers will be/are being cannibalized by the financially strong and the whole industry is in the process of adapting to much lower prices long term.
    It is much like agricultural production...the larger the farm, the lower the price to produce.
    The expected future price per barrel is probably less than $40 in a stable environment.
    Feb 8, 2016. 11:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Rebound Will Fuel A 'Rip Your Face Off' Rally In The Stock Market  [View article]
    Current data shows that oil production has dropped only about 0.1 % since the start of what is now a 70% decline in price/barrel 18 months ago. The Saudi plan to erode market share by price attrition is not working and all the producing nations are madly pumping the stuff to maintain income and their own share of the market. This is going to go on and on for quite some time because we are waiting for the somebody to blink and clearly, that is not going to happen near term.
    Many analysts are touting the "re-balancing" of the market by the second half of the year. Evidence currently available simply does not confirm that analysis. This is a new paradigm for the price of the commodity and adjustments are ongoing now in the painful process to accommodate that new reality. We may see short term rallies in the price, but they are just selling opportunities.
    The problem is the price @$90 to $100/barrel brought on huge amounts of debt fueled exploration and production that was not sustainable, which is evident in the current level of carnage in the high yield debt market that financed the production expansion. Any significant increase in price will bring on new production which will curtail the upward movement in price. Advances in technology mean that the cost per barrel to produce keeps falling, so more producers can live with lower prices.
    This is the new reality for the entire energy complex going forward.
    Feb 8, 2016. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on mREITs: Valuations too compelling  [View news story]
    Try using CEFconnect.com. You can get most information you need about any US traded CEF. Look at UNII, which is undistributed investment income, and look at the discount/premium to NAV as well as the portfolio and all the SEC docs.
    Jan 31, 2016. 03:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on mREITs: Valuations too compelling  [View news story]
    IOwn:

    "Obviously you have not thought through dividend investing"

    Well, it's unfortunate, but some people just never learn, do they?
    Jan 26, 2016. 07:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on mREITs: Valuations too compelling  [View news story]
    I think Mo El-Arian is correct in calling for a massive "day of reckoning" as a result of central bank monetary policy, esp the US FED.The bubble is just getting bigger, in much the same way as occurred during the Greenspan expansion of toxic mortgage bonds and the resulting real estate bubble: we all know the end result of that.
    Asset prices are in the process of resetting to more "normal' levels and what is happening to mReits is not just the yield curve problem, but also sentiment going against anything involving leveraged credit (witness the chaos in the junk bond market).
    The market is betting against the mReit model of leverage and rising interest rates. It is comparable to the energy sector at the moment....just not a place to be with investment $$ because the market is going against you.
    Jan 26, 2016. 03:01 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan on mREITs: Valuations too compelling  [View news story]
    And after the runup in prices for a couple of days, Goldman et al will come out with a negative analysis, short the sector and steal a few more $ from us.
    Jan 26, 2016. 11:31 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse reiterates its REIT favorites  [View news story]
    Very true, 2bears and thank you for reminding me of that! Kharma is earned somehow over time. I have been playing with scared money lately, and that is not good. Too reactive to swings in the market that are now the new reality.
    Jan 21, 2016. 09:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    The FED will find a way to prop it up!
    Jan 20, 2016. 05:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    Is that 1.45%?
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:52 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    Good point....whenever the bull market makes the cover of Time, it's time to sell. Interesting that Barron's magazine feature this week is the Bear Market, in caps. Must be time to buy....
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:39 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    I have found in my 35+ year career in the financial markets that most analysis is done after the fact, in the rear view mirror. Information is presented in such a way that the "facts" ("proven" with assistance from fancy graphs and spreadsheets all over the place) such as to to support the current sentiment, negative or positive.
    Everything is always going to get much, much worse when in a bear market situation (remember the daily dose of "double dip" recession narrative, or worse, depression during the 2008 crisis?), and much, much better in a bull market. With that in mind, best to just ignore it all and carry on. Some real bargains starting to happen out there as the sentiment deteriorates because it's just going to get much worse tomorrow, right?
    Really? Somewhere, I recall something Warren Buffet paraphrased from Benjamin Graham (or was it some other famous stock market guru)....
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:21 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beware When The Bulls Say 'This Time Is Different'  [View article]
    I have found in my 35+ year career in the financial markets that most analysis is done after the fact, in the rear view mirror. Information is presented in such a way that the "facts" ("proven" with assistance from fancy graphs and spreadsheets all over the place) such as to to support the current sentiment, negative or positive.
    Everything is always going to get much, much worse when in a bear market situation (remember the daily dose of "double dip" recession narrative, or worse, depression during the 2008 crisis?), and much, much better in a bull market. With that in mind, best to just ignore it all and carry on. Some real bargains starting to happen out there as the sentiment deteriorates because it's just going to get much worse tomorrow, right?
    Really? Somewhere, I recall something Warren Buffet paraphrased from Benjamin Graham (or was it some other famous stock market guru)....
    Jan 20, 2016. 03:21 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No boost for New Residential after buyback  [View news story]
    I truly hope that you are right. Bu just look at the close today for MORL...Huge volume to the downside (like most of the mReits). Really bad technicals....death cross happened a long time ago and it has been is steep decline ever since. Once te recalibration happens, might not be a note available to refi the thing. That spells doom.
    Jan 19, 2016. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No boost for New Residential after buyback  [View news story]
    Here's the equation of destruction going on in mReits:

    Oil price collapse + FED tightening + years of $$ chasing leveraged yield = junk bond sell off = seizing up of credit markets = failure of mReit business model (based on cheap, easy credit)
    Jan 19, 2016. 04:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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