SD CDL

The Cheap Oil Syndrome: 3 Stocks to Benefit

I agree with both mixter and only partially to Cousin A, gov't intervention on both sides, subsidies in the down times, windfall "stupid" taxes in the good times is bad and invokes the law of unitended consequences. Businesses don't pay taxes, people do...because it is passed on, that IS business.

Eric H's point is moot because the 3 trillion is off balance sheet, you did not pay for it with this year's filing of taxes, or the year before...or the year before. We opened another credit card in the US taxpayer's name so since it was all borrrowed and will never be paid back, we couldn't have used it because technically it was never there. I'll agree that if we're going borrow 3 trillion we should have put it to finding alternative energy. The problem is that gov't isn't the best group for it...i.e. ethanol and the devastation it has done to corn (consumers that is). We will all pay for the war with inflation, the stealth tax. We'll never pay off the national day in real dollars anyways, it will be inflated away or rendered worthless when we switch to a new currency (Amero?).

Maybe we shouldn't have constructed our entire society on cheap oil...doh!

The Cheap Oil Syndrome: 3 Stocks to Benefit

The Saudi's can't increase supply because they don't have it. This is the nasty secret that the Government doesn't want to tell the people...thinking they can fix the problem before it happens. Read Matt Simmons' book about Saudi oil and you'll see. They hide this because they don't want to spook the herd or incite hoarding and general chaos.

This nationalization of oil around the globe and war in Iraq(setting up a police station) are all chess board moves for later this century when resource conflict is open and regular. With billions wanting to live like America, shortages will ensue. Eventually a new source will overtake oil but the trillion dollar question is what...and is it in time.

Kind of bleak outlook but a gallon of oil is STILL cheaper than a gallon of milk and look at the backlash. It may be worth it buy a home close to work or a motorcycle with enough land to grow food for a family or two...just in case. Past returns do not guarantee future results.

Or we could breakthrough in sun or wind technology or something and forget the whole thing.

Gold Stocks: Too Much Speculative Risk for My Taste

Rereading his last paragraph...how is gold more volatile then any other asset class? Real Estate doubled or tripled, then crashed. Financials exploded...then went (Bear Sterns) bankrupt. ALL asset classes are volatile these days, just as a inflationary cycle predict...money sloshes around from asset to asset. You can predict the price of gold in two questions: What is world M3 growing by and will congress continue to spend us into oblivion.
Note: I also don't think gold will rise forever, but we're only in the 2 or 3rd inning people.

Gold Stocks: Too Much Speculative Risk for My Taste

You're missing a crucial factor of inflation and double digit M3 growth GLOBAL. The CPI is fiction, a Frankenstein of an index that systemically removes or modifies anything that goes up in price. Homes in this decade have been speculative, gold is in the early portion of a bull market. Bill Fleckenstein said it perfectly...in a social democracy...all roads leads to inflation. Inflate or Die!

Agree with structuring around peak oil but oil/gas will also rise with the inflationary cycle.

Gold is Money!

Energy, Inflation and Gold

Agree with the author and a few of the posters...
paultaut - great in pointing out what few mention about the commodities and the margain requirement...quick to attempt to attack gold when it makes a bull run but hands off on all other asset classes since in Greenspan's words, its too hard to identify on the way up.

midwest neighbor - we give our money to the Arabs because we want to drive our SUVs and trucks and want to plan society around cheap oil. That's like blaming a drug dealer for helping our addiction. Not sure what you mean about taking America down a peg or two but we've been overspending waaaaay to much and producing waaaay too little so in that sense, yes, we need to pull back...both individually and the Gub'ment. What is so unpatriotic about living with your means?

mkreisel - is ANWR enough? How many BPDs vs how much we consume...I think it won't even match yesterday's demand let alone tomorrow's. Numbers please

'Fedization': Bear's Rescue Presents a Major Moral Hazard

Good article, its amazing how the "answer" is right in front of us but never looked into. When I talked to coworkers about the housing bubble they back it up to the players but never past the banks to who gives them the money, the Fed. I am seeing a sea change, though, in the realization that Greenspan was a bubble blower and Bernanke will follow suit. I'm waiting to see how the Fed will attempt to deflect criticism while the dollar crashes... Gold is crying "BS!" to the central banks around the globe. Jim Rogers was right, Ben should dissolve the Fed and resign (in theory, in practice would be a little harder)

Why I Don't Own Commodities

Mark in SF,
Agree 100% that supply/demand is pushing it up but I think it is also the double whammy with accelerating M3 growth worldwide. Matt Simmon's "Twilight in the Desert" was a great book on the subject. So was "The Long Emergency" by John Knustler if you want to get a little more on the darker side.

Why I Don't Own Commodities

One item the writer and stockdude is ignoring is the MASSIVE amounts of INFLATION worldwide. M3 growth across the globe in major industrial countries are in the teens on the LOW side. Central banks around the world are pumping large amounts of cash which is why you have commodities rising vs. all currencies. It is not a 2 year cycle.

Stockdude's point about exploration is true in as much as they are looking for resources but NOT finding them. The Petrobas find is deep beneath the ocean and will require expensive if not undevelopled technology. Much pricier than the stick-a-straw-in-the-g... Saudi oil. The Canadian oils sands are a mining operation with a bpd of maybe 2-3 million max...the global demand will eat through that in a year.

We've had barely a handful of major oil field discoveries since the 60's and a vast majority of producing countries are in decline. The 21st century will be defined by the quest for resources, you have already witnessed it with two wars in Iraq.

Ignore commodities at your own risk.