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market flaneur

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  • Why The Shiller P/E Is Useless [View article]
    "Remember that any index is simply a collection of individual securities, and analytical techniques that produce meaningless results for individual securities will produce similarly meaningless result for a collection of those securities."

    I have no strongly held opinions about Shiller P/E, though I am inclined to agree that the Shiller P/E is useless for individual securities.

    But being useless for individual securities does not necessarily mean Shiller P/E is useless for a large collection of those securities. A large collection of securities behaves quite differently from any one of its individual components, most obviously in terms of volatility, average returns, etc. Hence also measures like alpha, beta, etc.

    Shiller P/E might in fact be useless for a large collection of securities, but it would require some proof beyond demonstrating its uselessness for any individual security.

    If I were the author's editor, I would suggest the author drop this second point to focus on the first, third, and "bonus" points.
    Nov 3, 2014. 10:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Evaluation Of My Position In Textainer Group Holdings: Sell, Hold, Or Add? [View article]
    Robin, thank you for the article. Earlier this year TGH announced that some of its 2014 dividends might be classified as return of capital. Does that impact your analysis in any way? Or is this just an accounting/tax issue?

    From TGH's investor relations website:
    Aug 13, 2014. 12:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10 Stocks To Buy Now: Be Cautious - But Don't Panic: Part 2 [View article]
    Buyandhold... did you hold all those stocks through the market crash and reinvest dividends? If so, you should be doing quite well...

    That's how we knew it was a panic crash... The bad, the ugly, the ugly-bad, *and* the good, the great were *all* sold together.
    May 18, 2014. 03:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kinder Morgan says it will meet or exceed 2014 financial expectations [View news story]
    In short: KMI will have greater dividend growth than KMP or KMR. Lower yield now, greater growth: KMI. Higher yield now, lower growth: KMP/KMR.

    Not sure why Kinder buys KMI over KMP/KMR.

    Maybe someday the KMP (the limited partner) will buy out or merge with KMI (the general partner) and Kinder wants to be on the seller's side.

    KMI is a C-corp with dividends on a Form 1099-B.
    KMP is a MLP with income distributions on a Schedule K-1.
    KMR is KMP with unit distributions instead of income, thereby avoiding a Schedule K-1. (Selling some or all of the position will trigger reporting on a 1099-B.)

    That's my understanding, anyway.
    Mar 14, 2014. 01:50 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3M: Is This Dividend Champion Attractive At Current Levels? [View article]
    What kind of margin rate are you paying? (And at which brokerage?) Or is your margin requirement being met with cash?
    Feb 4, 2014. 08:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment