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crl1603

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  • The Coal Market Will Rebound In The Long Term [View article]
    coal prices are not low, still quite high for historic norms. imho only the china build out temporarily boosted coal prices, so why people think they should move higher is a mystery. maybe india uses a little more and we use slightly less in the west.
    but i'm not sure i understand why people think prices will be higher in 16 17 or 18, any thoughts would be appreciated.
    having said that i went long BTU at 5.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alpha Natural Resources gets NYSE warning over continued listing [View news story]
    probably we will get a reverse split, usually means a target for shorts inmo.
    Apr 18, 2015. 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Chesapeake Energy Is A Buy For The Long Term [View article]
    problem is there level of debt.
    Apr 12, 2015. 09:19 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are There Any Potential Upsides In Store For Alpha Natural Resources? [View article]
    stock ticker you say you are hoping for coal prices to get back to normal, but they have, go back in history and you will find the higher prices coal enjoyed a few years ago was the result of china's massive build out, that is unlikely to be repeated. plus supply has increased. the current prices are normal.
    ANR has to much debt and is not a low cost producer, not a good combo.
    Apr 8, 2015. 07:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Don't Count It Out Just Yet [View article]
    as steep and as quick, no, but i knew enough after a comment that investor relations made to me , after they bought bry , i asked them what if oil goes down with the higher price you paid for bry ,how will you pay down the debt the reply was not much of a concern, as will attempt to keep on making accretive acquisitions. i thought that sounded very optimistic so i sold in the 30's i'd bought low.
    it just seemed that oil when you increase production would behave the same as nat gas had price wise. i can't short as i do all my investment using an ira roll over.
    but i did buy memp when it crashed because of it's great hedges till 2018 at much lower prices than it is now.
    but the upstream models really concern me because they seem as a group to do their forward planning based on optimistic assumptions, and they don't have the luxury of doing a secondary to get out of trouble, since they pay distributions. not sure that using the usual format of 50% stock 50% debt for acquisitions is good , they can always lower a distribution.
    Apr 2, 2015. 11:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Don't Count It Out Just Yet [View article]
    achilles, i don't understand why you thinks this puts existing shareholders in a stronger position, they have to pay interest on the preferred and the notes, once a company reaches a certain debt ratio almost always existing shareholders are screwed, the idea that they can magically find an acquisition so good that they can pay down the debt on top of paying interest on their debt is a long shot at best.
    the upstream mlp model appears to be broken because in the end these companies always take on too much debt based on the idea they can grow their way out.
    the idea that nobody could have forseen the drop in oil is incorrect. first coal then nat gas then ngl's and then oil. the tendency is to assume that the commodity you are in is different , it will buck the trend is almost always wrong it's supply and demand.
    imho take linn's purchase of bry the idea after their first offer was going to be rejected because their stock price had fallen due to a law suit , that it was okay to massively increase the offer , and take on huge debt in the process , presumably on the basis that energy prices will not go down is not the wisest.
    i'm guessing the only way the upstream mlp's will work in the future is move to a flexible distribution. perhaps not as sexy but at least they won't incur an ever increasing debt load when their coverage ratio slips below 1, that surely is insanity.
    Apr 2, 2015. 06:22 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting Petroleum - Rock-Solid Liquidity, 100% Upside [View article]
    i expect it's rather optimistic to expect a large increase, it's very hard to make a serious dent in their debt.
    Apr 2, 2015. 02:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America: Debunking The Merrill Lynch Myth [View article]
    i think BCS is a much better bet than BAC imho.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy- 50-100% Upside When The Turnaround Comes [View article]
    why would an XOM buy t hole company when it could just buy pieces of it without inheriting the debt.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Gets No Love, Except From An Insider [View article]
    hi sarfaraz, remember CHK has had a history of insider buying, so far that has not worked out well for investors, true Dunham seems to be better suited to run CHK than A.M imho, but prior to the drop he was also the beneficiary of rising oil prices at COP.
    Apr 2, 2015. 10:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy- 50-100% Upside When The Turnaround Comes [View article]
    tim your comment about CHK being an attractive take over target, i really doubt that with all it's debt ,much more likely they receive offers for various fields they own. why take on their debt?
    Apr 1, 2015. 08:30 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America - Recent Sell-Off Creates Ideal Entry Point For Long-Term Investors [View article]
    tim have you noticed how normalized earnings assumptions keep getting ratcheted down, which is not surprising, since in the 80"S banks traded at much lower multiples then they expanded the areas they played in, became sexy and their multiples expanded. i suspect their multiples are in the process of contracting again. it's also i suspect naive to expect that legal issues will be over in 15, 16 or 17.
    on top of that it's a lot harder for banks to make money now, and i don't think it's yet cheap based on 15 and 16 expectations, i'd be surprised if it met those forecasts.
    Mar 26, 2015. 08:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some Straight Talk On Linn Energy's Finances [View article]
    very good article, the chances are they will be pro active and cut the distribution again, as you say with this much debt there are really no good options.
    Mar 25, 2015. 04:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Linn Energy Needs $85 WTI [View article]
    great article, line was pro active in being i think the first to cut it's distribution i expect it will cut again quite soon , better to cut now before they have too.
    Mar 25, 2015. 08:49 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 50% Reduction In Distributions Appears More Sustainable [View article]
    sadly not linn's, who felt they could always grow their way out of high debt, i remember calling IR when they announced they were going to increase their offer for BRY, which was i believe a high cost producer anyway, and suggesting that in the event of a decline in oil prices this acquisition would be disastrous and being told that was an unlikely scenario. fortunately the idea that a high debt was not important convinced me to sell.
    Mar 24, 2015. 05:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
240 Comments
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