arawak

Oil Will Peak at $150-200 - Barron's Interview

It defies credibility to suggest $75 oil in 20 years. Most major fields are projected to go into decline in the next TEN years. We have not made any finds like Ghawar which means there is going to be LESS supply despite a larger population and economic growth in the BRIC countries.

People, there are two definitions of peak oil and both are happening.

Definition 1 - Geology - Peak oil in terms of falling global production. We are at a plateau right now and it seems unlikely we'll be able to ramp up like we have in the past.

Definition 2 - Economics - Even if production can achieve some year-over-year gains, demand outpaces production growth which essentially translates to supply being constricted on a year-over-year basis.

Definition 2 is happening right now and definition 1 is a looming reality. Remember- OPEC and all others don't exactly have the most transparent accounting. They self-report their oil reserves which is what determines their production quota.