punk_ash's Comments

Smart Guys on Wall Street: The Trillin Theory

Thu, 15 Oct 2009 00:05:40 -0400

what do you expect an engineer to do when you have your boss's boss's boss's boss's boss is a moron with an MBA. When engineers are looked down upon and morons with who do the deciding are revered.

The Government Sponsored Bubble

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:27:40 -0400

sadly, civilizations know of no other way to grow economically, other than by increasing the money supply. For happy days to come back, the money supply must start increasing again...

Is Bond Market Betting Rising Oil Prices Will Check Inflation?

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:12:23 -0400

probably its just the traders shifting money between fixed income and equities.

Why the Yen Is About to Devalue

Wed, 14 Oct 2009 05:11:22 -0400

countries will keep devaluing their fiats to compete for trade, and they will all lose value. I have never heard anyone say this, but may be the best buy right now is a material asset with long term use, as in car or machinery. Most real assets will lose value too.

U.S. Still the World's Largest Manufacturer

Tue, 13 Oct 2009 03:41:28 -0400

Its bad, but its not all that bad. We still are the biggest producer of food. We still have the largest store of water and a ton of resources and lots of usable land.

What we need is to get people away from computer screens and acting to real work. That will not happen.

Asset Reflation Does Not Signal Recovery for U.S.'s Collapsed Economy

Tue, 06 Oct 2009 07:14:12 -0400

on one hand you talk about asset reflation as in Gold and then you say we are heading for hyperinflation.

Ugly Jobs Report Puts a Dent in V-Shaped Recovery Scenario

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 06:26:28 -0400

Why do you post same large paragraph on all articles. It is irritating.

On Oct 04 10:04 AM Mad Hedge Fund Trader wrote:

> More than a dent! For the last six months there has been a great
> big whopping contradiction in the markets. The stock market has been
> discounting a return to the “Roaring Twenties,” while the bond market
> has been anticipating another “Great Depression.” After yesterday’s
> publication of the Labor Department’s September nonfarm payroll number
> showing the loss of another 263,000 jobs, it looks like the bond
> market now has the upper hand. This takes the unemployment rate up
> 0.1% to 9.8%, and total job losses for this recession to 7 million.
> The really disturbing aspect of this number is that 57,000 teachers
> were fired, as states chop budgets to the bone. This is really eating
> our seed corn by the bushel full. Of course, I have been banging
> pots and pans, setting off distress flares, and yanking the fire
> alarm, trying to alert readers that this kind of disappointment was
> coming (click here for “Risk Reversals Can Be Such a Bitch” and here
> for “Stocks Offer No Value”). Shares have dropped 5% from last week’s
> peak, as the bond market soared, the ten year yield reaching nosebleed
> territory of 3.05%. The dollar maintained its flight to safety status,
> which to me is one of the great ironies of all time. It’s like that
> reprobate, alcoholic uncle with the bad teeth, who, when your car
> breaks down in the middle of a downpour in a bad neighborhood, will
> always let you crash on his sofa. Let’s call him your Uncle Sam.
> You have to hand it to PIMCO’s inveterate card counter, Bill Gross,
> who says this is all about transitioning to a “new” normal of 1%-2%
> real GDP growth. That’s why he was loading the boat with bond yields
> at 4%, a “ballsey” move at the time, which now smells like roses.
> I guess that’s why they call him the “Bond King.”

Will This Economy Ever Create Job Growth?

Mon, 05 Oct 2009 02:49:16 -0400

Yes, most public companies were once startups. But they focused on American Ingenuity and innovation and not stock options. I was a telecom engineer, and few care about work anymore, its stock options, cash them and run to Bahamas for a vacation or just retire.

On Oct 04 12:29 PM Old Trader wrote:

> punk_ash,
>
> That's probably the narrowest definition of a start up I've ever
> heard! If you're talking about the internet bubble, you're correct,
> for the most part, but any publicly traded company was once a "start
> up" (not too mention all of the privately owned companies).

Will This Economy Ever Create Job Growth?

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:46:52 -0400

That was the intent of the start ups. But those start ups turned into hit and run operation. Launch a start up, get some revenue going, sell equity, insiders sell and run. Bag holders trade with each other trying to pinch pennies, while brokers making money on them, the product never showed up. I am glad we have no more start ups popping up.

On Oct 04 08:34 AM User 353732 wrote:

> Jobs, that matter to the middle class, are created by start ups(by
> definition a start must hire at least 1 or 2 people), small businesses
> and useful innovation that creates new supply which creates its own
> demand which generates new revenues and hence, income and jobs.

>
> The current Regime is manifestly hostile to start ups(entrepreneurs
> are punished and good risk taking is penalized while criminal bubble
> making with tax payer money is glorified); small businesses are financially
> suffocated (systematic and persistent credit starvation and increasingly
> vindictive regulations); useful innovation is stifled(by an addiction,
> to the stultifying status quo of failed business models, incompetent
> managements, ruinous organizational practices and strategically moribund
> industrial and financial corporations ).
>
> This triple hostility ensures that the Structural or Embedded unemployment/underempl...
> rate in the economy will be substantially greater than has been the
> American experience until 2009. Never have so few destroyed so much
> job creating POTENTIAL for so many, so quickly, in American economic
> history.

Will This Economy Ever Create Job Growth?

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 09:44:31 -0400

America has been a place where the best minds innovate and get paid well and support lots of service jobs.

But those jobs are going away since the current generation is only qualified in Law, MBA, marketing, acting, dancing.

Recession Is Over; Depression Has Just Begun

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 05:41:14 -0400

No we will not get the same depression of the 1930s, at least I hope not. We will get a bunch of W W W W and followed by L.

Emerging Markets on a Tear: Avoid the Indian Stampede

Sun, 04 Oct 2009 00:09:00 -0400

there are ponzi schemes all over the world and India is no exception.

Is India a Benchmark Bet on the Global Economy?

Sat, 03 Oct 2009 15:37:28 -0400

I am visiting India. I feel that living in US is cheaper than living in India. There is too much inflation. There is so much demand for the real estate that the bubble may not burst for decades.

If every one in India gets to the standard of life as the west, Earth will start shining like the Sun with all the heat produced from the fossil fuels.

One thing just keeps working for India is the population and the pyramid as in more young people than the old, other than that, the whole environment is just bad.

China and India: Canaries in the Coal Mine?

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:40:53 -0400

I am writing from India and no one cares about exports. There is so much internal consumption like there is no tomorrow.

Alan Greenspan Has Learned Nothing

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 16:26:57 -0400

Steve Jobs is a genius. Greenspan is some guy who was in the right place at the right time.

Markets Are Starting to Roll Over

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 13:03:28 -0400

there were plenty of posts like these from march until August. One down day and we got these posts again. This is a bear market rally and only the best traders will be able to get out in time. Most of us are better served if we do not play.

How the Recession Is Changing Retirement

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 04:16:15 -0400

There is no low cost country. China and India are not much lower cost than US when it comes to state of the art health care and consumer goods. The difference is in things like real estate taxes and the cost of services.

On Sep 30 03:47 AM Roger Knights wrote:

> Retirement to a low-cost country abroad is an option many are exercising.

How the Recession Is Changing Retirement

Wed, 30 Sep 2009 03:50:58 -0400

common sense works in most cases. Eat less, and you will get less diseases and try and stay the heck away from the medicines if possible.

Greenspan: Another Financial Crisis Is Inevitable

Fri, 11 Sep 2009 04:03:49 -0400

what he is saying is that human nature causes bubbles, and that he is not at fault. Whatever easy money Gspan

Professional Investors Do Not Believe Economy Will Double Dip by 2010

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 14:55:01 -0400

If money supply was all that was needed to stimulate the economy, Argentina (a huge economy in early 20th century) would not have any problems.

China Urges Citizens to Buy Gold and Silver

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 02:12:20 -0400

I like Jeff's articles, but you make a good point.h

On Sep 04 01:31 PM dshark wrote:

> Yeah your article is not to self serving coming from a guys who has
> an interest in selling gold. No bias what so ever! Who would ever
> take what you have to say about gold as serious? Also the dollar
> should be at a value "somewhere not far above zero". Sounds like
> you have a complex because your country is stuck being a pint sized
> half brother to one of the greatest countries in the world!
>
> Push your gold agenda somewhere else.
>
> SHARK

The Myth of a Jobless Recovery

Tue, 08 Sep 2009 02:00:27 -0400

Jobs will come back quickly if only the health care costs could become sane.

Gold Is Still the Opportunity of a Lifetime

Mon, 07 Sep 2009 14:26:47 -0400

I am a regular reader of SA and yes, most of the articles are fluff, but there are many fine articles as well. It is not fair to say that all articles are fluff. If you spend enough time here (months and years), you will be able to better take away useful information from this site.

On Sep 07 01:54 PM NUCLEAR1929 wrote:

> I am sorry you are loser and lost some $ since 2008, you are double
> loser because you write on SA for free, SA never paid here any so
> called publisher, for them you are a pipe channel to connect visitors
> with advertisers. Only freaks write for free, you must be really
> sick just like anybody else to work for free for uncle sam SA.
Now
> go complain to SA and report abuse pussycat.

Fisher Price Deflation

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 02:48:33 -0400

I have a feeling that the doctors will now order 2 times the number of tests for all patients who are insured, to make up for all the revenues from those who cannot afford. That means more radiation in our bodies.

On Sep 05 11:06 AM PastTense wrote:

> So no one else is getting these "deflationary" 10% health insurance
> premium increases?

A Hard Look at Private Sector Jobs

Sun, 06 Sep 2009 02:42:35 -0400

The root causes of all problems are 2: Health care costs and real estate taxes. The health care costs need to go down by 75%, yes, that is right, 75% before we can be competitive again. Get rid of pensions. Then handle the real estate taxes, which almost double the mortgage amount. Schools have to be funded by the state and the parents. These pensions of the dozens of millions of retirees is just not sustainable. They might still collect all those nominal pensions, but not in real terms.

If we handle these 2 issues, the companies will be more eager to hire here rather than outsourcing, and people will have more money and be able to hold onto their homes.

Fund Manager Jim Chanos Warned Geithner, Brown of Impending Financial Crisis

Fri, 04 Sep 2009 00:16:52 -0400

there are pundits warning about something every 2 minutes, so, people will not start chasing the problem. Sooner or later, some randomly selected pundit will be correct. Then he will brag. I predicted this crisis in 2000, hey I am right too, do I also get the prize.

Having said that, and having worked in corporates for long times, I know, how these warnings are dealt with. The only thing that counts is the December sales, and the bonus.

Scary Drop in Velocity of Money: Is Deflation Knocking?

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 23:27:16 -0400

Unless the Feds are printing many more Trillions of dollars, we will not see inflation. The money that we all thought was funny money and all based on credit. Any money being earned right now is being hoarded. Most are buying only what they have to. The new money is not chasing anything.

This housing mess would have been long taken care of if it were not for the real estate taxes.

The Deflation of the American Dream

Thu, 03 Sep 2009 23:11:22 -0400

There will never be job creation in US unless health care is fixed for good. What is wring with health care is that there are too many leaches sucking on it. Seniors expect to be taken care of with a very expensive medicare, which is fair, but there are hundreds on thousands of lawyers living off of health care, doctors and nurses and dentists and pharmacists making insane amounts of money. Where will all this money come from? Things will only get worse when no one is willing to fund out deficits and much worse when the dollar falls (if it does) and even more worse when these baby boomers start retiring.

The Nature of This Recovery

Wed, 02 Sep 2009 22:09:29 -0400

these will be many such rallies and they will be there for one reason alone, that we suck in the retail investors each time. Ultimately, the retail investors will stop playing the game since this game will cost them their hard earned savings. Then, the bottom will be in and we will be in a new bull market.

Is a Crash Impending?

Tue, 01 Sep 2009 23:43:30 -0400

There will be a time for buying the real assets, but it is not now. We are still in a deflationary phase.

On Sep 01 10:57 AM Albert Ling wrote:

> Yes, we should all sell our stocks, except:
>
> BENJAMIN SHALOM BERNANKE WANTS EQUITY HOLDERS TO GET RICH AND CASH/DEBT
> HOLDERS TO GET POOR
>
> So buy oil buy gold buy quality stocks, miner stocks, ag. stocks,
> etc.
> These are FAKE green shoots, the economy will tank, but so will the
> USD. Make money from the depression and buy real assets.