woodhorb

Tech Giants Facing Dollar Daze

Google admits they increased US$ revenue on international operations due to favorable exchange rates; the FX gain gave them $60M extra revenue last quarter; but they also hedge their FX exposure to some extent to offset possible declines; most companies hedge their FX exposure to some extent; so it's difficult to forcast how much the FX changes will impact the bottom line. I am surprised though that none of the analysts have nudged down their Revenue and EPS forecasts to take account of potential FX declines over the next 12 months

Microsoft's Cashback Program is Working: 15% Uptick in June Searches

wow goog dropped from 61.8 to 61.5 and msft now has 9.2; much of that was people having a quick look see; most will revert back to goog as they realize it's mainly a gimmick not real massive savings; somethings under this scheme costs more despite the discount; mainly a short term diversion; no real threat to goog dominance

Re-valuing Google: Three Scenarios

I always thought that with discounted cash flows you used either the current and expected interest rate cost or your rae of return required to invest; if base rates are at 2%; OK histoprically low but still your 10.5% discount rate seems rather high; I took your $34.5 B revenue prediction for 2010 and your 40% EBITDA which gave me EPS for 2010 at $46 per share; then said OK it's a mature company growing at 6.5% a year with no new innovation (again your assumptions) so a PE of 15 gives me a value of $690 a share in 2 years time; that's a worthwhile return over the next 2 years using your bas case scenario; with their huge data storage vlume which can't be matched I expect competitors will struggle to disrupt GOOG from it's dominant position over the next 2 years; hence my long position at 1000 shares; would add more if I could afford it; there is always a downside risk but if GOOG delivers the profits each quarter or only misses by cents we will get to $700 in 2 years

A Google Bear's Take on Earnings

The title talks about earnings but then you switch to free cash flow? If GOOG profits only grow by 4% a quarter GOOG will meet analysts current estimates of $20 eps in 2008 and $24 eps in 2009; currently a forward PE ratio of just 22 which is not over the top by any means; GOOG management need to keep monitoring CAPEX and not do silly aquisitions but at $45 cash per share they have a lot more cash than most companies; agreed at some stage if youtube does not show promising monetization enough to justify the CAPEX expense you sell the business or close it down and move on

Watch for Google Apps, Salesforce to Integrate

That's why it makes sense to buy a few companies to boost the cororate sales side of the business and leave the tech side of things to the geeks

Leaving Google in No Man's Land

great timing; you sell and the stock goes up $20; only $25 short of your buy it back price

Google Paid Click Growth Sluggish in February; More Worries Emerge

Comscore also showed lower click through rates for GOOG in jan and feb 2007 and they had a blow out quarter; roll on April 17