BioBlogger_

Tysabri Comes Out On Top At FDA Panel Meeting (BIIB, ELN)

I agree completely. With BIIB you have the diversified business plus you are not exposed to the lofty valuation of ELN.

Research Report Highlights Reality of Tysabri’s Prospects (ELN, BIIB)

If your going to criticize my analysis, then support your viewpoint. Justify why the market value of Tysabri is worth $8 billion. Here is a quick and dirty illustration of how I get to that figure. Assume 4x peak sales of $6b in 7 years. That's $24b of value in 2013. Discount for time using a rate of 15% per year gets you to $9b of current value. Obviously, one can debate the multiple I used and the discount rate, but the conclusion is the same: One has to assume this Tysabri becomes one of the biggest selling biotech drugs in history to justify a value of $8b. The numbers I used in my post are based on a discounted cashflow model that would take too much time to explain, but this simple example illustrates my point.

The Future of Tysabri: A Reader’s Perspective (ELN, BIIB, SRA)

Boswells,

One more thing. Thank you very much for your comment.

The Future of Tysabri: A Reader’s Perspective (ELN, BIIB, SRA)

Your point is well taken. I would not be surprised if Tysabri comes back on the market, but only as a salvage treatment. However, I believe you are wrong when you say that, "What it all boils down to is how much of a personal risk one is willing to once all the other options you've tried...fail." If you are an MS patient and develop PML and die or are disabled, your loved one are more than likely to sue the doctor and the company; therefore, it is not simply the patients decision. Moreover, the FDA is concerned about the potential fallout of allowing a drug with potentially fatal side effects without defining the risks. At this point, there are a lot of questions that need to be answered: Does monontherapy increase risk or is it only combo therapy? If only combo, how long does a washout period need be before giving Tysabri? What will be the monitoring procedure? There is no effective diagnostic test. Rather than trying to make a prediction about Tysabri's fate, what I am really trying to say is that the risk/reward in playing this from an investment perspective is not there. ELN is trading as though Tysabri has a 100% probably of getting back on the market with blockbuster revenue potential.