connorport

A-Power Energy Misses Analyst Estimates: A Buying Opportunity?

Maybe you should have kept your position and done a little more research. Blogging here will not encourage me or anyone else to liquidate. Im bring investors in that are looking for long term growth which will happen here keeping things stable for the moment. When the Texas deal gets signed which will be soon you may look for a pullback, hitting about $22 and pulling back to just above $20. You might want to strattle and hedge some upward movement as well, maybe so Mar 20's or 22.50 calls.


On Dec 06 01:32 PM Ecomike wrote:

> Disclosure: I sold my position in APWR recently, and went short via
> PUTs.
>
> Did you all notice that it lost money this quarter on a GAAP basis!
> Be sure and read that quarterly report more closely folks. Those
> are non-GAAP earnings they reported, not GAAP earnings. Once the
> recent news of all the huge deals wears off, and the markets correct
> down (in 3-6 weeks?), this stock might get blown by the wind and
> hot air back to $10-$12/share. Right now is the time to be on the
> sidelines waiting for it to bottom, before buying. It lost 50% of
> its value this summer after the last bad earnings report.
>
> Also, I was very concerned at the lack of upward expectations of
> revenues for next year by the CEO, 10% increase?, where (or when)
> are all those billion dollar deals?

A-Power Energy Misses Analyst Estimates: A Buying Opportunity?

Let em short it! When shorts try to cover we will get a huge run up that will be more dramatic than without them. The Texas deal will now be a justifyable deal now that the announcement of American jobs have been established. As far as i read that was the only issue and it has been sowed shut.


On Dec 07 07:23 AM wind4me wrote:

> do the MATH of the coming quarters and what do you get ????
>
> a RISING ROCKET for the next NINE straight quarters
>
> www.Wind4me.com
>
> My Estimates are posted for public viewing and ""WHO""' had 140 Million
> for 4th quarter and 91 million for 3rd Quarter estimates???? Wall
> Street had 115 and 112 million, NOT EVEN CLOSE!
>
> and WHAT did Wall street GUIDE UP TO ??? answer :: 135 million<br/>wonder
> WHERE they got that number from ????

A-Power Energy Misses Analyst Estimates: A Buying Opportunity?

Let em short it! When shorts try to cover we will get a huge run up that will be more dramatic than without them. The Texas deal will now be a justifyable deal now that the announcement of American jobs have been established. As far as i read that was the only issue and it has been sowed shut.


On Dec 07 07:23 AM wind4me wrote:

> do the MATH of the coming quarters and what do you get ????
>
> a RISING ROCKET for the next NINE straight quarters
>
> www.Wind4me.com
>
> My Estimates are posted for public viewing and ""WHO""' had 140 Million
> for 4th quarter and 91 million for 3rd Quarter estimates???? Wall
> Street had 115 and 112 million, NOT EVEN CLOSE!
>
> and WHAT did Wall street GUIDE UP TO ??? answer :: 135 million<br/>wonder
> WHERE they got that number from ????

A-Power: A Powerful Stock for an Option Trade

You wrote before that APWR would see a gap fill at $4.60. What is your stance on that opinion today. What bucks the system and is there too much strength here to now fill that gap?

China's Green Stimulus: A-Power, First Solar May Get Big Chunk

Current report from Reuters shows there are 4,647,760 shares shorted which represents over 21% of float. If earnings comes in thursday better than expected then we can expect these shares to help drive the price higher that much quicker. A good earnings and increased guidance may push the stock to the low to mid 20's soon.

China's Green Stimulus: A-Power, First Solar May Get Big Chunk

Technicals haven't even caught up to the wind sector yet much less APWR. The unknown is whats driving the stock right now. After the next 3-4 quarters a more definable chart will make it easier to price APWR. Look to see continuing raised guidances that will push its price upwards of $30 by early next year if the multiples don't double themselves. Progressive growth could push the multiples to 30-40 times earnings in the green tech sector.


On Nov 27 01:28 PM Alphameister wrote:

> Also long APWR and SNRY (for the same reasons articulated above by
> connorport). The strength in APWR was amazing today given that the
> stock is overextended technically and FXI was down 4.5%. I took
> some profits above 18, though APWR remains a major position. Looks
> like big money is starting to pour into APWR with visions of much
> higher prices.

China's Green Stimulus: A-Power, First Solar May Get Big Chunk

As the author here said i think the next "Googles" will be coming from the green tech sector. We are probably looking at a 10+ year ride so there is plenty of time to get in. Researching and buying into the right ones will be the key as many will be overrun by the "Googles" just like the search engines sector had.

China's Green Stimulus: A-Power, First Solar May Get Big Chunk

Thats a piece of the puzzle but not the only sectors that will be targeted. Problem with solar is that they will not doubt grow dramatically but will also experience more competitive bids on the large contracts they are bidding. This sector will have to grow three fold to stay ahead. Wind technology no undoubtedly leaves a smaller footprint and generates a lot more energy. Competitiveness will be there for wind but startup for wind manufacturing plants and businesses if far more costly which will keep established businesses stronger and push more startups in the solar business further driving down the price of panels. Right now you can go on line and purchase all the parts and equipment needed to build you own solar panels at home. I would invest in the solar businesses that go after stimulus and stay vendor neutral such as SNRY but would be wary of solar manufactures. Just my opinion. Not an expert in wind or solar but i am long in APWR and SNRY.


On Nov 27 10:27 AM gebby wrote:

> solar is one of the very few industry groups with high probability
> of growth in business and earnings. buy this group

Wednesday Options Recap

Im with you! I've started buying APWR at $3.50. It has catapulted to the biggest winner in the folio so far. We shall compare notes after earnings and see where we are.


On Nov 25 04:44 PM wind4me wrote:

> does anyone ""INVEST"" anymore ?? (APWR) has the best story and
> the best return potential of anything out there given the 3.5 BILLION
> in future 2010 booked contracts for Nat Gas plants, LNG, and Wind
> Power..........when are folks going to wake up to the potential of
> APWR for the end of 2011 timeframe ? I almost enjoy nobody following
> APWR like I do cause one cannot find more information than my website
> on APWR
>
> www.Wind4me.com
>
> enjoy 2011 revenues and eps for APWR !

A-Power: Boundless Energy Demand in China Gives It a Boost

That would be 2010 adjusted earnings not 2011. I've got 2011 at near $3 X 20

A-Power: Boundless Energy Demand in China Gives It a Boost

My figures are come to by using $2.20 annual adjusted 2011 earnings at today's multiple. So i too think i am being conservative. Anything can happen from day to day but i think we see the greentech stocks trading at higher multiples as they scoop up the global stimulous.


On Nov 24 08:57 PM wind4me wrote:

> these are my ''public''' comments on being conservative for APWR,
> given the 1.5 billion Texas Wind farm and the 1.5 billion macau island
> LNG plant and the 2400MW nat gas for Macau island for another one
> billion, U could easily be looking at 3.5 BILLION in revs over next
> 3 years for a 320 million market cap run rate!
>
> (APWR) is going to be a 2010 ROCKET!

A-Power: Boundless Energy Demand in China Gives It a Boost

We obviously don't know about a lot in north and south america. I would assume they wouldn't pour the money in a new plant in the US just to supply one project. The only downside to my theory is share dilution which fully diluted would only put out about 200million shares which is an acceptable number by any standards in the market today. Other than that I think we are looking a the "first solar" of wind turbine manufacturers.


On Nov 24 08:59 PM wind4me wrote:

>
> I agree 100% , given the potential of APWR and how many MOU's we
> know about, how many do we NOT know about ??
>
> On Nov 24 04:04 PM connorport wrote:

A-Power: Boundless Energy Demand in China Gives It a Boost

I think we will see the stock in the mid 40's to mid 50's in 2010 using adjusted earnings at today multiples. These greentechs may break the cycle and trade and two time todays mutiples and we may get surprised. Either way im Long.

A-Power: Boundless Energy Demand in China Gives It a Boost

I hope you are wrong and your targets are way underestimated but i like the sound of those numbers. Cramer gave this stock a "no comment" I guess he will comment when it hits $30


On Nov 24 02:47 PM wind4me wrote:

> try and figure out the West Texas 1.5 Billion Wind Farm and a 2.5
> Billion LNG and 2400 MW nat gas plant on Macau Island in China???
>
>
> APWR at $20 is very underpriced going forward, my 2010 target is
> $38, my 2011 is $58
>
> www.Wind4me.com

China's Solar Industry Outshines the U.S.

About 4 million shares are shorted. This is great news right before earnings. Good earnings with short covering may just drive the stock to $16-$17. If you are positive about the stock as i am.