bearfund

AmEx Misses: The Bear Trap Thickens

Marvin, oh my. Keynesianism and Monetarism, you say. Yes, that's the ticket. Hang on a sec while I increase the size of my short position in Treasuries even farther... done. Now, what were you saying again?

America is broke. Get it through your head. All that's left is to decide whether to inflate away the remaining wealth of the few solvent citizens for the sake of the profligate many or to watch asset prices collapse as the market gets its head out and returns valuations to reasonable levels. In neither case will the nation's total wealth or economic capacity increase. Doesn't matter to me; I'm going to profit either way. How about you?

Financial-Dip Buyers Forget To Ask What's Next

Sentiment, sector rotation, and squeezes. Those are all that matter. Earnings? If the market is determined to go up, it will. If it is determined to go down, it will. There's always something in an earnings call that can be spun whichever way the wind is blowing. Just remember, we've seen this movie before.

Barron's Goes Bullish on Banks, Again

There are only a handful of really good banks out there, WFC and USB among them. But those are not the companies available below book and 8x earnings. In fact both are expensive again. They were good buys at 21 on Tuesday but the upside is gone now. As we've seen time and again, once Buffett is in a name you can forget making any money investing in it; investors make all their money when they buy and "Buffett stocks" are always expensive. The best we get now are a few great trading opportunities like we had last week.

As for the rest of the banks, go ahead and take this "once in a generation" opportunity. Be sure to get the certificates and frame them; that stuff might fetch a decent price on eBay later on.

Big Ben's Credit Card Moves: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

There is nothing I can use to predict the future price of V, so there's no way to formulate an exit strategy. Its price is decoupled from its value and there are no technical indicators; it's a new issue and the chart is parabolic. That's not trading, it's gambling. If you need the returns and are comfortable with that, so be it. Good luck to you.

Big Ben's Credit Card Moves: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

No, Visa is not a credit card issuer. But V trades at 40x earnings and it pays no dividend. That's an automatic fail here at the bearfund. If you want to bet on number 23, go ahead. The casino is over there. V is neither a sound investment nor a reasonable trade; you are doing nothing but betting on the greater fool. I'll give you $15 a share for it; that's a bit above its liquidation value but I'm willing to take a bit of risk that it'll someday pay a dividend.

No position on V. I don't trade the untradeable.