bearfund

Nightmares on ETN Street: When Issuers Go Bust

The really remarkable thing is that there are gold and silver ETNs. The price action there should be fascinating.

Watching the Lehman Fireworks

buyitcheap, Could be. As I said, I wouldn't buy the common; it's too easy to pay $5 and get 50 cents a week later. As for TBT, I'm not just sticking with it, I'm growing it. There's a near-term triple top, a 5-year double top, a broad 15-year rising wedge, and 50-year resistance. Then there are the fundamentals, which make those horrid technicals look downright bullish. There are even two ways to win with this trade: things get better and the fear bid dries up, or things get worse and supply explodes on more government bailouts. The only way to lose in this trade is to allow oneself to be stopped out.

Watching the Lehman Fireworks

If Wall Street pariah BSC got a lifeline of any description at all, it's safe to say LEH will get a sweet deal. Would I buy the common? Nope. But I'd be happy to buy their paper. There is zero chance this company will fold. If it can't operate, someone will buy it if the New York Fed has to lend them the whole purchase price at 0% and insure them against all losses.

Options Trader: Friday Outlook

First you write:

In other words "We don’t care if there is no actual demand for the oil, we’re still going to drive prices to the moon!"

Then later, in a response, you write:

Also, no one is saying we shouldn't open up to more drilling but certainly you can't believe that asking the Saudis to pump more oil is a bad idea. We need the oil now.

Let's see, there's no demand (high prices are caused by speculators, not supply and demand) but we are desperate for oil. Which is it, then? I guess you mean what people usually mean, that Americans are desperate for *cheap* oil, because they are wasteful and inefficient and never learned their lessons from the last 3 times this happened. Begging the Arabs, drilling in Alaska, and upgrading refineries are all temporary solutions to a permanent problem. The solution is to consume less, period.