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17 Comments

    • Hank Paulson: Leading Us to the Next Bull, Soon [view article]
      I agree with much of what you say, but your belief that the housing market will bottom as quickly as 2009 is unlikely, in my opinion. Past housing slumps lasted at least 4 years, and our latest housing boom is on an order of magnitude much higher than anything we've ever seen. What makes you believe that housing could bottom so quickly, relative to historical peaks/bottoms? Sep 18 09:22 AM
    • Banks Are Bearish, or Hedging, Financials and Real Estate [view article]
      Wait a second. Your article states that the institutions' holdings were as of the end of first quarter 2008. Yet you also point out the May highs. How can you be sure that the banks did not pare down their holdings of SKF and SRS between the end of March of mid May? Jul 03 11:03 AM
    • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One [view article]
      You'll need to click in the 5-year chart on that link to see my point. May 24 12:24 AM
    • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One [view article]
      Not all parabolic charts result in a crash. See: www.bloomberg.com/apps... May 24 12:23 AM
    • NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing [view article]
      The Boomer Baby argument is tired. It's the same argument that the homebuilders used to convince themselves and their investors to build -- as it turned out -- too many homes. Judging by the stock prices over all the homebuilders, the Boomer Babies aren't going to save the housing market. May 13 10:04 AM
    • NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing [view article]
      Rental market to heat up? I don't see it. Maybe temporarily, as rental properties are converted to condos in some cities. But all the extra inventory will ultimately lead to a softening rental market as many of the new condos are converted back into rentals.

      Please explain why you see the rental market heating up.       May 13 10:02 AM
    • St. Joe Should Climb 25% - Barron's [view article]
      Why are some of its holdings sitting "on its balance sheet at below-market-value prices"? Who determines what "market value" is? Apr 27 09:57 PM
    • REITs: An Update [view article]
      I believe much of what propelled REITs since January was the absolutely unexpectedly massive rate cuts by the Fed. That changed the game completely. Now REITs's yields actually look attractive. My concern with holding a position in SRS is that rates are not likely to rise in the near term, so REITs would have to report serious earnings disappointments in the near term for SRS to perform. Apr 27 10:27 AM
    • REITs: An Update [view article]
      Toro, you've owned SRS for a while now. Do you realize the nasty value decay that holding an ultrashort hands you? I only realized this after watching SRS for several months. As you wait for REITs to finally admit weakness (at least by their stock prices), your SRS holdings fall in value even if IYR is flat over time.

      I think you're right: REIT stocks will ultimately correct. But while you wait to be proven right, your SRS falls further. Maybe shorting IYR is the smarter play -- but there are obvious risks doing that as well.       Apr 26 11:26 AM
    • Vacancies Soar in Commercial Real Estate Bust [view article]
      You're over-hyping that stats to suit your thesis. Vacancies rising from 13% to 13.6% is far from "soaring" -- yet.

      Yes, there will be weakness in CRE. The forecasted 19% vacancy rate by 2009 would not be surprising.       Apr 23 09:15 PM
    • UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs [view article]
      John the Bear,

      Mortgage REITs like RAS make up a small portion of IYR and SRS. For SRS to really move up, equity REITs need to show weakness.       Apr 15 11:41 AM
    • Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up [view article]
      The link is not copying correctly. Just compare the 3-month charts of SKF and XLF. Apr 13 09:53 PM
    • Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up [view article]
      Last link didn't work right. Try this one. You may need to copy and paste it.

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...
       Apr 13 09:52 PM
    • Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up [view article]
      The math is a little tricky, but Ultra Short ETF's certainly do show price erosion over time. It's easier to look at a chart to show how this works.

      Here's a perfect example. Note that the chart shows that when the lines cross, the intersections occur at lower levels over time. If it were true that ultrashorts provided a true 2:1 return, then the intersections on these charts should always occur at the 0% line.

      finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...
       Apr 13 09:48 PM
    • UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs [view article]
      While I agree that REITs are likely to drop in price, keep in mind that the preferred metric is Funds From Operations (FFO), not forward earnings. Granted, FFO is a metric created by the REIT industry, so maybe it's not a true measure of a REIT's financial health (anyone remember those late 90's upstart telecoms that were promoting their EBITDA instead of earnings?). But the fact is that FFO is what is used by the investment community to evaluate REITs. So an analysis of forward FFO might be more appropriate. Apr 13 10:17 AM
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