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Why a Revamped Housing Plan Should Be Government's First Priority

You've got to be kidding me. You're agreeing with a proposal from the homebuilders??? The homebuilders CAUSED this mess!

The homebuilders overbuilt, causing this housing glut (and crash). Yes, easy access to credit fueled the mania, but the homebuilders still were to ones who built the darn homes! They could have scaled back construction several years ago when plenty of people were warning that a housing bubble was forming. But no, the homebuilders kept building anyway.

Now the homebuilders want to the gov't to "save the housing market"??

Again: are you kidding me?

Hank Paulson: Leading Us to the Next Bull, Soon

I agree with much of what you say, but your belief that the housing market will bottom as quickly as 2009 is unlikely, in my opinion. Past housing slumps lasted at least 4 years, and our latest housing boom is on an order of magnitude much higher than anything we've ever seen. What makes you believe that housing could bottom so quickly, relative to historical peaks/bottoms?

Banks Are Bearish, or Hedging, Financials and Real Estate

Wait a second. Your article states that the institutions' holdings were as of the end of first quarter 2008. Yet you also point out the May highs. How can you be sure that the banks did not pare down their holdings of SKF and SRS between the end of March of mid May?

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

You'll need to click in the 5-year chart on that link to see my point.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Not all parabolic charts result in a crash. See: www.bloomberg.com/apps...

NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing

The Boomer Baby argument is tired. It's the same argument that the homebuilders used to convince themselves and their investors to build -- as it turned out -- too many homes. Judging by the stock prices over all the homebuilders, the Boomer Babies aren't going to save the housing market.

NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing

Rental market to heat up? I don't see it. Maybe temporarily, as rental properties are converted to condos in some cities. But all the extra inventory will ultimately lead to a softening rental market as many of the new condos are converted back into rentals.

Please explain why you see the rental market heating up.

St. Joe Should Climb 25% - Barron's

Why are some of its holdings sitting "on its balance sheet at below-market-value prices"? Who determines what "market value" is?

REITs: An Update

I believe much of what propelled REITs since January was the absolutely unexpectedly massive rate cuts by the Fed. That changed the game completely. Now REITs's yields actually look attractive. My concern with holding a position in SRS is that rates are not likely to rise in the near term, so REITs would have to report serious earnings disappointments in the near term for SRS to perform.

REITs: An Update

Toro, you've owned SRS for a while now. Do you realize the nasty value decay that holding an ultrashort hands you? I only realized this after watching SRS for several months. As you wait for REITs to finally admit weakness (at least by their stock prices), your SRS holdings fall in value even if IYR is flat over time.

I think you're right: REIT stocks will ultimately correct. But while you wait to be proven right, your SRS falls further. Maybe shorting IYR is the smarter play -- but there are obvious risks doing that as well.

Vacancies Soar in Commercial Real Estate Bust

You're over-hyping that stats to suit your thesis. Vacancies rising from 13% to 13.6% is far from "soaring" -- yet.

Yes, there will be weakness in CRE. The forecasted 19% vacancy rate by 2009 would not be surprising.

UltraShort Real Estate ETF: The Only Safe Haven for Commercial REITs

John the Bear,

Mortgage REITs like RAS make up a small portion of IYR and SRS. For SRS to really move up, equity REITs need to show weakness.

Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up

The link is not copying correctly. Just compare the 3-month charts of SKF and XLF.

Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up

Last link didn't work right. Try this one. You may need to copy and paste it.

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...

Ultra and Inverse ETFs: The Downside of Doubling Up

The math is a little tricky, but Ultra Short ETF's certainly do show price erosion over time. It's easier to look at a chart to show how this works.

Here's a perfect example. Note that the chart shows that when the lines cross, the intersections occur at lower levels over time. If it were true that ultrashorts provided a true 2:1 return, then the intersections on these charts should always occur at the 0% line.

finance.yahoo.com/q/bc...