tl

Hank Paulson: Leading Us to the Next Bull, Soon

I agree with much of what you say, but your belief that the housing market will bottom as quickly as 2009 is unlikely, in my opinion. Past housing slumps lasted at least 4 years, and our latest housing boom is on an order of magnitude much higher than anything we've ever seen. What makes you believe that housing could bottom so quickly, relative to historical peaks/bottoms?

NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing

The Boomer Baby argument is tired. It's the same argument that the homebuilders used to convince themselves and their investors to build -- as it turned out -- too many homes. Judging by the stock prices over all the homebuilders, the Boomer Babies aren't going to save the housing market.

NAR's Lawrence Yun Continues to Mislead on Housing

Rental market to heat up? I don't see it. Maybe temporarily, as rental properties are converted to condos in some cities. But all the extra inventory will ultimately lead to a softening rental market as many of the new condos are converted back into rentals.

Please explain why you see the rental market heating up.

Vacancies Soar in Commercial Real Estate Bust

You're over-hyping that stats to suit your thesis. Vacancies rising from 13% to 13.6% is far from "soaring" -- yet.

Yes, there will be weakness in CRE. The forecasted 19% vacancy rate by 2009 would not be surprising.