paulibloom's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/169411/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/92608-the-inverse-fannie-freddie-correlation-indicator?source=feed#comment-238963 238963 Mon, 25 Aug 2008 23:15:36 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81110-mbia-and-ambac-monoline-malaise?source=feed#comment-185682 185682 Sat, 14 Jun 2008 21:22:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76989-book-review-david-einhorn-s-fooling-some-of-the-people-all-of-the-time?source=feed#comment-183797 183797 Wed, 11 Jun 2008 21:28:31 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79606-the-gdp-on-the-eve-of-recession-then-and-maybe-now?source=feed#comment-177689 177689 Sun, 01 Jun 2008 21:29:23 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/79441-evaluating-a-negative-view-on-american-capital-strategies?source=feed#comment-177008 177008
We should not expect that the buyers are stupid, they are smart aggressive firms looking to make a solid return as well. A large measure of the middle-market buyout business is what can you do with the company after you have acquired it, via cost reductions and importantly bolt-on acquisitions. ACAS has done a good job of just that. My bet is that they have a number of companies in their portfolio where they feel they can realize substantial gains, based upon their detailed knowledge of the market. This is why they were so emphatic about what their spillover taxable income will be into 2009. They made a point of putting it in their annual report. Again to be clear if we had perfect knowledge, then the stock would not be priced where it is. The overall business climate appears to indicate they have a good chance of success.

Lastly, the commentary from many other BDCs is reasonably consistent with their views on pricing and activity.]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 17:19:57 -0400
We should not expect that the buyers are stupid, they are smart aggressive firms looking to make a solid return as well. A large measure of the middle-market buyout business is what can you do with the company after you have acquired it, via cost reductions and importantly bolt-on acquisitions. ACAS has done a good job of just that. My bet is that they have a number of companies in their portfolio where they feel they can realize substantial gains, based upon their detailed knowledge of the market. This is why they were so emphatic about what their spillover taxable income will be into 2009. They made a point of putting it in their annual report. Again to be clear if we had perfect knowledge, then the stock would not be priced where it is. The overall business climate appears to indicate they have a good chance of success.

Lastly, the commentary from many other BDCs is reasonably consistent with their views on pricing and activity.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79441-evaluating-a-negative-view-on-american-capital-strategies?source=feed#comment-176576 176576
Along these lines the really important statistic is the assets on non-accrual, as that figure impacts dividends and cash flow. The shorts never discuss this, as it is in reasonable shape. I will tell you from other investments, that the assets on non-accrual is the key discussion factor for CSE, NRF, AHR, KFN, all best in class financial companies.

The shorts rely on the inexperience of retail investors. In addition, I believe most institutional analysts are focused on short term trading and really do not know how to make money or build wealth(I was an analyst for over 20 years and interacted with many many analysts).

The short argument is long in the tooth. The economy is improving, debt market liquidity is improving, and transactional volume will start to increase. With many marginal players, not able to get financing, this is increasingly a big boys game.

ACAS is focused on turning part of their portfolio into cash and gains. As the recent analyst day presentations, indicate, the company likely has numerous candidates that it has nurtured for years that can now be sold for substantial gains to rational buyers. If this goal is achieved, ACAS will enter 2009 with even better visibility on the dividend and an increasing NOI. While all this is going on the Company has the earnings backlog and ongoing earnings power, to make this a very reasonable risk reward scenario.

The shorts should be nervous -if ACAS announces another big capital gain, their whole thesis is sunk. This is why they replay such weak old stuff. Can you imagine a whole article on SPL which has been discussed for months.

I was an investor in ALD during the BLX situation, which was a much larger issue for ALD. After all was said and done, the dividend was increased, as well as the visibility. In a normal world, you would think that would stop the discussion. But it rattles on, over things that do not make real economic sense for the dividend.]]> Fri, 30 May 2008 08:49:11 -0400
Along these lines the really important statistic is the assets on non-accrual, as that figure impacts dividends and cash flow. The shorts never discuss this, as it is in reasonable shape. I will tell you from other investments, that the assets on non-accrual is the key discussion factor for CSE, NRF, AHR, KFN, all best in class financial companies.

The shorts rely on the inexperience of retail investors. In addition, I believe most institutional analysts are focused on short term trading and really do not know how to make money or build wealth(I was an analyst for over 20 years and interacted with many many analysts).

The short argument is long in the tooth. The economy is improving, debt market liquidity is improving, and transactional volume will start to increase. With many marginal players, not able to get financing, this is increasingly a big boys game.

ACAS is focused on turning part of their portfolio into cash and gains. As the recent analyst day presentations, indicate, the company likely has numerous candidates that it has nurtured for years that can now be sold for substantial gains to rational buyers. If this goal is achieved, ACAS will enter 2009 with even better visibility on the dividend and an increasing NOI. While all this is going on the Company has the earnings backlog and ongoing earnings power, to make this a very reasonable risk reward scenario.

The shorts should be nervous -if ACAS announces another big capital gain, their whole thesis is sunk. This is why they replay such weak old stuff. Can you imagine a whole article on SPL which has been discussed for months.

I was an investor in ALD during the BLX situation, which was a much larger issue for ALD. After all was said and done, the dividend was increased, as well as the visibility. In a normal world, you would think that would stop the discussion. But it rattles on, over things that do not make real economic sense for the dividend.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/77833-stock-market-moves-into-critical-testing-zone?source=feed#comment-170295 170295 Mon, 19 May 2008 23:40:19 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75838-u-s-economy-is-expanding-not-receding?source=feed#comment-163085 163085 Tue, 06 May 2008 22:32:30 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75369-payroll-numbers-beat-expectations-but-trend-may-be-temporary?source=feed#comment-161249 161249 Sat, 03 May 2008 17:41:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75396-thinking-in-themes-what-color-are-your-markets?source=feed#comment-160972 160972 Fri, 02 May 2008 19:54:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70197-some-key-observations-on-kkr-financial?source=feed#comment-153475 153475 Sat, 19 Apr 2008 17:00:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70197-some-key-observations-on-kkr-financial?source=feed#comment-151954 151954 Wed, 16 Apr 2008 21:04:55 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70197-some-key-observations-on-kkr-financial?source=feed#comment-151952 151952 Wed, 16 Apr 2008 20:55:34 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70573-collapse-of-the-bric-trade?source=feed#comment-134389 134389
Shows how the obvious will kill you

Do not own any shares but so many negative comments on home builders- a study in those learning about the market the hard way]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:30:44 -0400
Shows how the obvious will kill you

Do not own any shares but so many negative comments on home builders- a study in those learning about the market the hard way]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70488-the-recession-has-arrived-how-long-will-it-stay?source=feed#comment-134360 134360 ]]> Mon, 31 Mar 2008 20:55:57 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70197-some-key-observations-on-kkr-financial?source=feed#comment-132906 132906 Fri, 28 Mar 2008 09:12:32 -0400