monday1929

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Interesting- why do you think that?


On Feb 13 07:17 AM morph366 wrote:

> Agree with many of your points and I reached the following conclusion
> in my own commentary today.
> The fact that the volume kicked in on the SPY yesterday before there
> was a real testing of the January 20th low suggests that there is
> still more of a trading range mindset prevailing at present rather
> than a concerted effort to properly test the possibilities of a new
> overall leg down.
>
> Contrary to some people’s intuition I suspect that the reluctance
> to aggressively probe for evidence of game changing buying support
> at lower lows at this stage is actually an overall negative in the
> longer term outlook for US equities.
>

Friday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

How about 250 in the S&P?


On Feb 13 05:47 AM Daniel Herkes wrote:

> The bottom will be about 7500. I hope.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

The largest credit bubble in all history has burst, it will lead to the biggest bust. Nothing is certain, but is it any worse than Paulson saying, one year ago, "This is the strongest world economy I've seen in my lifetime" ?
Deluded optimism Works in America, Realism makes you a freak, and a target of the SEC (ie. shorts attacked for pointing out what turned out to be the truth)


On Dec 17 08:46 AM The Simple Accountant wrote:

> Inevitability of a great depression is a non sequitur, given the
> analysis in the article. The evidence is troubling, indeed, but inevitability
> is a extraordinary claim which should not be made lightly.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

But everything looked just perfect to almost everybody 10 months ago. The Depression is just everyone opening their eyes to a Ponzi scheme of epic proportions. No "catalyst" is needed, just a change of mood by the public. See "socionomics" (not socio-economics_)


On Dec 17 08:32 PM CautiousInvestor wrote:

> The above is an interesting article, offering fresh insight into
> the role that CDS have had in spurring lending and growth and the
> implications of repriced credit insurance. To suggest, though, that
> the present price and/or availability of CDS is the singular reason
> for a prospective depression is grossly over simplifying the horrendously
> complex economic problems the world is facing. And while many developments
> have led us to where we are today, the significance of the housing
> bubble.....in all of its dimensions... and its ongoing aftermath
> must be included in any discussion of today's financial Armageddon.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

I agree with most of your comments. But when "debt is lowered across the board", as it will be, willingly (consumers/companies pulling back) or unwillingly (by default/bankruptcy)tha... IS Deflation and just what will cause a Great Depression.
And WHY are these people not in Jail??


On Dec 18 07:56 AM smurphny wrote:

> The idea that failure of institutions who took unclear and extraordinary
> risks will cause a depression is questionable. The "bubble" has obviously
> been the level of risk, the assessments of which became pure fiction.
> Sound financial basics were ignored and no one from government (SEC)
> was even trying to watch. We are all waiting to hear just WHO was
> involved in the neglect of duty in this organization which is funded
> by tax dollars to do, well...nothing. If government should be involved
> at all right now, it should be to regulate the orderly dissolution
> of both sides of this CDS folly. Debt needs to be permanently lowered
> across the board, in all sectors of the financial world, from credit
> cards, corporate paper, to interbank loans. Debt needs to be strictly
> regulated by very clear rules and issued only with minimal risk,
> collateralized with sound assets. We need to go back to this old,
> sound mentality of debt and remove highly speculative bets from the
> debt world. Our government should be arranging the transitions/bankruptci...
> of the AIGs, FNMs, and future insolvent financial companies, complete
> with the firing of ALL persons involved in the policy-making decisions,
> not their refunding with my tax dollars. Entities like Moody's, Fitch,
> and S&P should be closed down immediately for malfeasance (since
> no credit is being issued at present anyway), cleaned of all people
> who willingly went along with or actively promoted fraud, and executive
> offices filled with some of the people who quit these companies because
> they saw the fraud going on. WHY ARE THE EXECS. OF THESE COMPANIES
> STILL WALKING THE STREETS??? Confidence is the issue right now and
> no confidence will be restored until the rot is thoroughly removed
> from the wood, perp walks highlighted during prime time, and a clear
> new direction adopted. This is NOT happening at present and if it
> does not happen, as more shoes start to drop, the BEST outcome may
> be a depression.

Great Depression Not Imminent, But Inevitable

Yes, it will all be contained. Subprime is only 1/10 of 1/100 of 1/1000 of the houing market and the Fed can lower rates to 1% and the Treasury can re-assure the market and immigrants will buy houses and derivatives will spread the risk around so no one company can ever be damaged and if worst comes to worst we can work for GM making $60.00 per hour until our e-bay business takes off. And the SEC will come down hard on those horrible short sellers who question our collective delusions.


On Dec 17 07:49 AM Maya_ wrote:

> Silly article. One has to acknowledge that derivatives have serious
> destructive potential. But policy response is likely to contain the
> damage. As far as whether "no insurance" will cause a great depression;
> I wonder why the great depression ever got over; after all derivatives
> in its present day form are a very recent phenomenon.

Thursday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

The fact that there is still debate as to whether or not we will have a Recession (a formally normal part of the business cycle) After the collapse of the biggest credit bubble in history, and after the disintegration and insolvency of most major banks, tells of a complacency which will only be removed by a Major Depression.
The Bulls should hope for a recession. The Fed is not an all powerful Santa Claus: remember the "free markets" the elites used to pay homage to? That's before the criminal banks became beggars.