monday1929

Accounting Rule Changes Creating False Rally in Financials

No, he trades reality, not theory. The inevitable suspension of MTM, probably done under a different name, WILL cause the Delusional to bid up the bank stocks, and WILL create another shorting opportunity. The denial of reality is over, my friend. The New Great Depression will toughen us all up, mentally and Physically. Think how few 1930's era oldtimers were taken in by this latest series of MANIAS- Real Estate and Internet. They learned the lessons the hard way, just as you youngsters will earn your stripes.
Interestingly, people in their teens and Twenties are way ahead of us Boomers in seeing how illusery was the "wealth" of the past 2 decades- it really was just DEBT, not "liquidity" that fueled the whole will-o-wisp.
But those at the Top sure will keep those bonuses!


On Mar 15 12:19 PM vreporter wrote:

> "Without doubt, since fully-informed investors form only a small
> proportion of the capital markets, the spin and hype surrounding
> the “inherent evils” of the mark-to-market rule and Level 3 measurements
> could well take bank shares significantly higher this week."
>
> You must be very smart to be that far ahead of the market! Are you
> a comedian?

Accounting Rule Changes Creating False Rally in Financials

Fine, suspend Reality for a bit longer. But the losses, still not revealed for National Security reasons, are in the multi-Trillions. TIME, this time, will not paper over the losses with an Inflationary tailwind, as in times past. This Short does not want to see our Country lose stature, but my warnings were mocked by the same people who now think eliminating MTM will solve this problem.
How about listening to some of the few people who correctly (yes, we were early in most cases)laid out the EXACT events now happening. The ones who are telling you that "restoring the system" to the unstable bubble, or propping up home prices, is NOT what we should be trying to do. Yes, we should be trying to reduce foreclosures and make sure our fellow Americans are not hungry. We should not bail-out Criminal Bankers, Politicians from Both parties and useless, corrupt "regulators".


On Mar 15 03:07 PM User 366653 wrote:

> Some of the comments here are missing the only point that matters:
>
>
> If a change to mark-to-market has a positive psychological impact
> on the market, it is a good idea. Period. We are way beyond the point
> where ideological differences matter. What we need now is to take
> steps to insure that our financial system survives this crisis, and
> that investors regain confidence. If we have to suspend some rules
> in order to do this - then let's do it. Let's face it - this isn't
> an exercise in theoretical finance - it's the REAL WORLD!
>
> I for one would rather see our economy recover, and listen to the
> critics complain about how we "kicked the can down the road", than
> to watch a complete collapse of our system, and listen to the purists
> tell us that we should be proud that we stayed true to our principals,
> and, By God, we should be able to recover within ten or twenty years.
>
>
> For all you opponents of kicking the can down the road, remember
> - what we're talking about with these "toxic assets" is not much
> different than maintaining a margin account with your broker. <br/>
>
> Suppose you have a $100,000 account, and you margin it out to purchase
> $200,000 worth of stock. Friday, you get a margin call from your
> broker, (who happens to be your brother in law) who tells you that
> you have a $3,000 shortfall. He tells you the money is due now, but,
> because you're married to his sister, he'll stall the margin department
> til monday. He just "kicked the can down the road". If, on Monday,
> the market is flat or lower, you have to cover the call, probably
> by selling some of your favorite stocks at a five year low. If the
> market goes up enough to cover the call, you're saved. If the market
> continues to improve, you have a chance to recover some or all of
> your losses. Your brother in law just kicked the can down the road
> and saved your @#$@.
>
> I submit that "kicking the can down the road", risking collapse of
> our economy at some future date, beats the hell out of destroying
> our economy today.

Accounting Rule Changes Creating False Rally in Financials

Having done very well shorting Bankrupt banks like Citi, I have no problem loading up on shares at $1.00-$1.50, under the assumption that America will cheer the delusional removal of Mark-Of-Market. Many Shorts have tried to warn the Deluded of the very problems now occuring, to no avail. We are opposed to naked and abusive shorting, the suspension of the up-tick rule and elimination of Glass-Steagal(which was done at the behest of OPTIMISTS who thought it was an outdated rule from those unsophisticated Depression era reformists).
There may be some justification for suspending MTM, but anyone who thinks THAT is the cause of the coming Depression should get a job with Mr. Forbes, the Treasury Dept. or as Robert Rubenron's house boy.


On Mar 15 04:07 AM jeandit75 wrote:

> Keep shorting XLF my friend, I'll buy your supply of sotcks. You
> have to understand that a temporary end to the M2M will stop the
> bleeding of banks. It means they can stop marking assets down and
> don't need capital injections anymore. It will stabilize the system
> for awhile. It will help them breathe and move to start doing business
> again. The real economy needs the banks to function well. Theses
> shares are currently climbing a wall of worry. What is interesting
> for me is people like you are still not believers. Once you start
> to understand the benefits of the change of those crazy accounting
> rules, people like me will have made a ton of money buying banks.
> Now, this does not mean that it is the end of the problems for banks.
> The credit outlook remains gloomy. But at least, banks will now have
> some flexibility to adjust to the environment instead of having to
> beg for capital from the government. For that simple reason, bank
> and insurance shares are due for a massive bear market rally.

How GE Compares to Other Banks

Technical analysis is a tool, not magic. Long term charts gave one the perspective to see that the Dow could easily fall 30-80% from its peak. I love having those with your beliefs on the other side of my trades.


On Feb 18 09:57 PM bigtime99 wrote:

> Unfortunately, technical analysis is bunk.

Financials Getting Slaughtered

If those shorts are wrong, or even mos-timed, they will be slaughtered. Do you object to free-markets? Would you like to ban all selling?


On Feb 18 10:23 AM Landman wrote:

> Hedge Funds and Institutional Investors are using Triple Bear Short
> ETF's to pound financial companies into the ground.

Financials Getting Slaughtered

Yeah, an accounting change that turns zeros into hundred dollar bills.


On Feb 18 08:13 AM eddie6442 wrote:

> It's becoming more apparent every day that some very powerful people
> want the US economy to crater. When all it would take are a few "emergency"
> accounting &amp; regulation changes to alleviate the downward spiral
> to "catastrophe, anyone with half a brain can figure this out! <br/>It's
> logic 101 : If A, then B.............
>
> SIMPLE!!!!!!!!
>
> IMHO

Government Risk Rises: Credit Markets Face Structural Collapse

I have long stated that ANY fiduciary who invests other peoples' money in the Banks or other entities with undisclosed level three derivative exposure will be legally liable for negligence. My own and others exposure of the Trillions in hidden off-book losses will form the basis for such law-suits.
No fund should hold Citi, JPM or any other criminal bank. Their mis-deeds are now apparent to all.
Andrew Coumo MUST launch a RICIO prosecution of these banks if he is to maintain any credibility or hopes of political advancement.

Government Risk Rises: Credit Markets Face Structural Collapse

We have HAD a Systemic collapse. We have NOT seen all the ramifications of that collapse. Yet.


On Jan 26 08:18 AM RiskTrade wrote:

> The reason some traders have bought protection on the US Sovereign
> is not because they expect the US to default but because they think
> things could get worse and spreads will widen thereby allowing them
> to close their position at wider spread levels. If the U.S were to
> run in to trouble with its budget deficit we would more likely see
> a downgrade rather then an outright default/ or debt restructure.
> Downgrades are not credit events and so the CDS is unlikely to be
> triggered.
> Honestly, if the US were to default the rest of the world would be
> in far more problems as they are dependent upon u.s consumers, and
> investors.
>
> Yields on treasuries will no doubt rise, and the u.s dollar will
> at some point fall, and markets will take a while to recover but
> we are not in danger of a systemic collapse.

Government Bailouts Multiply as Paulson Prepares to Leave Washington

It is good to see that Fascism is the term being used to describe this looting of the economy. Mussolini himmself said that "corporatism" was the better term- the melding of Big business and Government. The well connected/bribe paying few get the benefits.

GE's Dividend Assertion is Dangerous

Delusional buying has done much more damage than short sellers ever could. If shorts are wrong they lose money. Does anyone understand that?


On Nov 14 10:03 AM Gem wrote:

> I was not surprised by the final disclosure that you hold a short
> position in GE, as I was intellectually disgusted when reading the
> obviously biased "analysis" of the GE situation.
> You are a prime example of why short selling needs to be regulated.