dn4911

DryShips and the Oil Rush

Why would DRYS / GE buy OCR at current levels? Instead buy the drill ships and just let OCR manage them.

Diana Shipping: Prime Rebound Candidate

Sorry I reversed the 2009 PE numbers. I project DSX 2009 PE to be 9.8 v. 6.5 for PRGN.

I should add that I have made a lot of money off DSX in the past, in fact still own a few shares and have had a nice run up last few weeks, but based on the current valuations I would put money in DRYS, PRGN, GNK, SBLK or NM before DSX.

Diana Shipping: Prime Rebound Candidate

I disagree with a number of the conclusions the author has made.
1. DSX's latest fixtures have been spot, not time charters.
2. THere are better dry bulk shippers that follow the DSX strategy of long term charters.

For example, look at Paragon. PRGN.

Metric PRGN DSX
08 PE 6.1 9.0
Yld 11% 8.8%
09 PE 9.8 6.5 (this is the one that concerns me most about dsx)
Fleet age 7.5 4.2
NAV/Price 1.53 1.02 (adjusted for mkt value of fleet)
08%DivPayout 66.6% 79.5%
09 %DivPayout 71% 86%
Debt/EV .89 .10
08 EV/EBITDA 3.8 7.4
09 EV/EBITDA 7 8.5

So while the author is correct about the low debt and young fleet, DSX earnings per share and dividends are less that PRGN and DSX pays out more of its earnings as a percent of income.

Starbulk is another one that is better than DSX.