JKC1967

Four Reasons We're Headed Even Higher

One thing about this author Jason Schwartz. Last summer, with oil at something like $140, he wrote an article entited "Oil is Going to $30". Dude got so many nasty comments, it was ugly. Sure enough, six months later, oil had bottomed out right around...you guessed it....$30. So, when this man writes something, it pays to listen. Now, I personally think this is a speculative rally built on sand, but if this guy thinks otherwise, its enough to make me take a long hard look at his arguments. Lots of people write out of their ass on this site, but this guy has a track record!

Q209 Hedge Fund Portfolio Tracking

This is a great site. I would love to see info on Israel Englander's Millennium Fund added to to your coverage!

Also, Altima in the Uk would be interesting as well. Especially interested in Millennium

Eight Reasons Bank of America Is Going to $20

One thing about this writer Jason Schwartz: In summer of 2008 when oil was still above $100 and the news was totally "demise of the dollar," Jason wrote an article here on SA essentially saying "Oil is Going to $30 and Dollar to Strengthen Dramatically" (or something like that). He said he was Long USO and UUP. Of course, about 50 people jumped in and ripped him to shreds, but I guess Jason kind of got the last laugh on that one! Point is, every once in awhile, a good contrarian analysis can help us see things from a different perspective. I have no idea if Jason is correct in his BAC comments here, but I hope he keeps writing to express out of the box views.

Making Money With Fannie and Freddie: Bank of Ozarks' Conference Call

Great article - Bill Gross in his outlook for 2009 said the best strategy is to "shake hands with the Government, buy what they are guaranteeing, and try to get there first" (I'm paraphrasing here). Sounds like these guys at Ozark did excactly that, I wish my fund manager had thought of it, believe me.

The Banker's Dilemma

This is one of the best articles I have read on SA for quite some time, it really summarizes the macroeconomic situation well. What I like is the emphasis on the Velocity of money in analyzing deflation. As I understand it, John is saying that it does not matter how much money is created by the FED, if it just sits in the "warehouses" due to fear/deleveraging, deflation persists. It makes me think about how some ofthis is psychological in a sense, and that fear can be a self-reinforcing cycle that is difficult to break. Great work John!

Market Prices: The Great Chasm

Thanks Carl - very interesting info on the 3- 10 Rule. I would think that in terms of making new highs, 2017 even seems a bit optimistic, I'd have guessed more along the lines of 2020 at the earliest, although I am no real estate expert. One other thing I wonder - with many ofthe baby boomers turning moving into old age during the 2010-2020 framework, wouldn't many of them be selling and trading down, thereby creating further headwinds for real estate price appreciation to struggle against?

After Coming Rate Cuts, Some Appealing Short ETFs

There are two very good Bear Market mutual funds as well. These are: 1) Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX). This one shorts some indexes and individual stocks, and also keeps around 15-20% of their money in precious metals stocks; 2) Leuthold's "Grizzly Short" fund (GRZZX), which uses a quantitative methodology to choose its shorts. These actually own short stock positions, not just derivatives. Keep in mind, once you are already have a short position, you can keep it, no one forces you to sell. Of the two, GRZZX has by far had the better year, in fact, I own quite a bit of it and I'd have been sunk with out it!

Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued

Mark - I've been reading your articles for some time now and really enjoy your eclectic insights into different markets, especially palladium. As for your attachment to SWC and PAL, you may well end up very rich down the road, with your faith well rewarded (and well deserved). However, near to medium-term, I've got to agree with bod investor that in a deflationary environment everything falls and cash is king. I personally have moved a decent chunk of my portfolio into reverse index and BEAR market funds to hedge my equity funds. That move is saving me now. Then again, in 5 years Mark may be retired in the Caribbean due to his Palladium investments while I'm still schlepping my sorry butt into work every day!

Calling an Intermediate Bottom

Roy P. - You've posted Buy KOOL comments at the bottom of several articles today. Assume you're veerrry Long that stock.....?

Web Stats: Hillary Supporters Not Yet on Board With Obama

Agree with whidbey - this guy is really smart, gives a great speech, but at the end of the day is really an extreme liberal. What scares me is the combination of Obama + DEM dominated Congress - yikes!

Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom

Is it possible to see merit in both Tom's case and DSB's? I think so. There is no diubt by traditional metrics banks are extremely undervalued, but it is impossible to leave out the general macroeconomic environment. If the Gov't end-up taking over/guaranteeing FNM and FRE, if housing continues to drop for for the next couple years, if the general process of deleveraging and defaults extends more broadly into other types of debt like auto and credit card loans, if the FED has to raise interest rates due to inflation....doesn't mean all of these things will happen, but any analysis of banking securities that does not take these risks into account seems flawed. Would love to hear Tom respond to DSB at some point....

How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution

Dent is Harry Dent. His theories essentially revolve around demographics, tying stock market performance to demographics, and he does predict a major crash and depression as the Baby Boomers start to retire in large masses (around 2010). HOWEVER, he has also written books called "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010." Below is a summary from Amazon of his predictions of how this decade would end. As you can see, ole Harry was probably a wee bit off the mark! Just goes to show the importance of being diversified across asset classes, instead of listening to every two-bit "expert" out there!


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The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade

The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009

Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006

The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010

The (Non) Crash of 2008

This author may be in the Jeremy Grantham school of thought, with a prediction of a slow, grinding decline. Grantham predicts a 40% drop in the S&P 500 over the next couple years as the credit cris drags on until 2010. On the other hand, I think Abby Joseph Cohen's last prediction was for the S&P to be at 1675 by year's end. Really, who can truly predict what will happen in the future in financial markets, for every argument for X, there is a counter- argument for Y. All an investor can truly do in this kind of environment is stay diversified across currencies and asset classes, US stocks, international, emerging/frontier, Big & Small, Bonds, TIPS, commodities, real estate, and perhaps managed futures. Maybe even a little bit in something that non-correlated to the overall financial markets, like a Life Settlement Fund. I think people who are certain of one type of future or another in this kind of environment are full of it!

ETFs, Commodities and Dubai

I have been to Dubai three times, and can confirm this issue of cheap labor being used and frequently exploited. What needs to be understood about Dubai though is that its already largely diversified its economy out of oil (the vast majority of oil in the UAE is in its sister Emirate Abu Dhabi). Dubai is unadalterated capitalism in its purest form (no income tax for expats either!), and the economic and financial framework put in place by its Government is just brilliant.

Commodity ETFs as Proxies for Private Money

Mike from ETF Securities: You guys are definitely the most innovative folks in the industry, no doubt. Index Universe has also mentioned you guys quite a bit. However, I believe us US citizens can only buy your shares on the LSE (or other Euro exchange) in a
tax-free retirement account. There are some fairly onerous US tax implications for buying certain kinds of funds - so-called "PFIC Rules" - which make it best to hold many foreign funds and securites in a tax advantaged account like an IRA. I am not 100% sure that ETFs qualify as PFICs, but if they do, its not advisable to hold them in a taxable account.