JKC1967

18 Comments

    • ON: Mon Oct 6th 17:26 PM
      Commented on:
      After Coming Rate Cuts, Some Appealing Short ETFs
      There are two very good Bear Market mutual funds as well. These are: 1) Prudent Bear Fund (BEARX). This one shorts some indexes and individual stocks, and also keeps around 15-20% of their money in precious metals stocks; 2) Leuthold's "Grizzly Short" fund (GRZZX), which uses a quantitative methodology to choose its shorts. These actually own short stock positions, not just derivatives. Keep in mind, once you are already have a short position, you can keep it, no one forces you to sell. Of the two, GRZZX has by far had the better year, in fact, I own quite a bit of it and I'd have been sunk with out it!
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 16:24 PM
      Commented on:
      Some True Safe Havens Are Still (Surprisingly) Undervalued
      Mark - I've been reading your articles for some time now and really enjoy your eclectic insights into different markets, especially palladium. As for your attachment to SWC and PAL, you may well end up very rich down the road, with your faith well rewarded (and well deserved). However, near to medium-term, I've got to agree with bod investor that in a deflationary environment everything falls and cash is king. I personally have moved a decent chunk of my portfolio into reverse index and BEAR market funds to hedge my equity funds. That move is saving me now. Then again, in 5 years Mark may be retired in the Caribbean due to his Palladium investments while I'm still schlepping my sorry butt into work every day!
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    • ON: Fri Oct 3rd 16:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Calling an Intermediate Bottom
      Roy P. - You've posted Buy KOOL comments at the bottom of several articles today. Assume you're veerrry Long that stock.....?
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    • ON: Fri Aug 1st 17:47 PM
      Commented on:
      Web Stats: Hillary Supporters Not Yet on Board With Obama
      Agree with whidbey - this guy is really smart, gives a great speech, but at the end of the day is really an extreme liberal. What scares me is the combination of Obama + DEM dominated Congress - yikes!
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    • ON: Tue Jul 22nd 16:52 PM
      Commented on:
      Financials: How - And When - We Reached the Bottom
      Is it possible to see merit in both Tom's case and DSB's? I think so. There is no diubt by traditional metrics banks are extremely undervalued, but it is impossible to leave out the general macroeconomic environment. If the Gov't end-up taking over/guaranteeing FNM and FRE, if housing continues to drop for for the next couple years, if the general process of deleveraging and defaults extends more broadly into other types of debt like auto and credit card loans, if the FED has to raise interest rates due to inflation....doesn't mean all of these things will happen, but any analysis of banking securities that does not take these risks into account seems flawed. Would love to hear Tom respond to DSB at some point....
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    • ON: Fri Jul 11th 16:52 PM
      Commented on:
      How Low Can This Market Go? The 40 Percent Solution
      Dent is Harry Dent. His theories essentially revolve around demographics, tying stock market performance to demographics, and he does predict a major crash and depression as the Baby Boomers start to retire in large masses (around 2010). HOWEVER, he has also written books called "The Next Great Bubble Boom: How to Profit from the Greatest Boom in History: 2006-2010." Below is a summary from Amazon of his predictions of how this decade would end. As you can see, ole Harry was probably a wee bit off the mark! Just goes to show the importance of being diversified across asset classes, instead of listening to every two-bit "expert" out there!


      ----------------------...
      The Dow hitting 40,000 by the end of the decade

      The Nasdaq advancing at least ten times from its October 2001 lows to around 13,500, and potentially as high as 20,000 by 2009

      Another strong advance in stocks in 2005, with a significant correction into around September/October 2006

      The Great Boom resurging into its final and strongest stage in 2007, and even more fully in 2008, lasting until late 2009 to early 2010
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    • ON: Mon Jun 23rd 17:40 PM
      Commented on:
      The (Non) Crash of 2008
      This author may be in the Jeremy Grantham school of thought, with a prediction of a slow, grinding decline. Grantham predicts a 40% drop in the S&P 500 over the next couple years as the credit cris drags on until 2010. On the other hand, I think Abby Joseph Cohen's last prediction was for the S&P to be at 1675 by year's end. Really, who can truly predict what will happen in the future in financial markets, for every argument for X, there is a counter- argument for Y. All an investor can truly do in this kind of environment is stay diversified across currencies and asset classes, US stocks, international, emerging/frontier, Big & Small, Bonds, TIPS, commodities, real estate, and perhaps managed futures. Maybe even a little bit in something that non-correlated to the overall financial markets, like a Life Settlement Fund. I think people who are certain of one type of future or another in this kind of environment are full of it!
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    • ON: Fri May 30th 18:05 PM
      Commented on:
      ETFs, Commodities and Dubai
      I have been to Dubai three times, and can confirm this issue of cheap labor being used and frequently exploited. What needs to be understood about Dubai though is that its already largely diversified its economy out of oil (the vast majority of oil in the UAE is in its sister Emirate Abu Dhabi). Dubai is unadalterated capitalism in its purest form (no income tax for expats either!), and the economic and financial framework put in place by its Government is just brilliant.
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    • ON: Thu May 22nd 16:14 PM
      Commented on:
      Commodity ETFs as Proxies for Private Money
      Mike from ETF Securities: You guys are definitely the most innovative folks in the industry, no doubt. Index Universe has also mentioned you guys quite a bit. However, I believe us US citizens can only buy your shares on the LSE (or other Euro exchange) in a
      tax-free retirement account. There are some fairly onerous US tax implications for buying certain kinds of funds - so-called "PFIC Rules" - which make it best to hold many foreign funds and securites in a tax advantaged account like an IRA. I am not 100% sure that ETFs qualify as PFICs, but if they do, its not advisable to hold them in a taxable account.
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    • ON: Wed May 21st 18:49 PM
      Commented on:
      Geopolitical Risks to the Market
      I am increasingly inclined to think we will hit Iran before Bush leaves Office. And, even if we do not, I wouldn't be shocked to see the Israelis try it on their own. Israel knows that if the next President is Obama, which seems like the direction the winds are blowing this year, the liklihood of getting US support drop quite a bit.
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    • ON: Wed May 21st 18:38 PM
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil: While Washington Sleeps...
      For anyone interested, John Maudlin had a very good piece on his site re: peak oil a couple of days ago. Makes for some scary reading:

      www.investorsinsight.c...
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    • ON: Wed May 21st 18:29 PM
      Commented on:
      Peak Oil: While Washington Sleeps...
      Very nice article. I checked out your comprehensive plan referenced at the end of this piece, and I think it makes a great deal of sense. Essentially, it combines things Democrats might call for - alternative energy, higher fuel standards etc. - with things the Republicans push like drilling in ANWR and offshore (Note: Have read a number of pieces that state that its really stupid not to drill offshore due to environmental reasons, since the technology has advanced so dramatically). This idea of windfall profits taxes on the oil companies is just stupid, stupid, stupid, pure pandering. The fact of the matter is that no one in our political class has the courage to tell the American people the truth, i.e. that high oil and gas prices are hear to stay, and that we had best start looking for solutions. Instead, we have dumb, provincial morons like Iowa Senator Chuck Grassley who insists on continuing subsidies for corn-based ethanol while keeping punitive tariffs on the much more energy efficient sugar cane version of it from Brazil. This is what passes for an energy policy in the Washington, DC area, very depressing....
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    • ON: Wed May 21st 18:18 PM
      Commented on:
      T. Boone Pickens Remains a Fervent Oil Bull
      Brain Power in Use - Good write-up! People who believe that the oil companies are somehow at fault here are morons. Yes, they are benefiting, but who cares. The real factors involved in determining the price of oil have precious little to do with Exxon-Mobil or Chevron - its first and foremost, supply and demand (esp., big increases in demand), increasing control by state-owned oil companies and Governments, OPEC, plus overregulation domestically. None of this has anything to do with XOM, they are just the beneficiaries of trends beyond their control. Besides, did anyone want to help them when Oil was $10/barrel back in '98?! Of course not. Fact is, we are now in an age of resource scarcity, and Americans may some day look back at $3.75/gallon gas and think those were the days....
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    • ON: Wed Apr 23rd 16:06 PM
      Commented on:
      Craig Israelsen: Commodities Provide Good Diversification
      One other question/comment: Have their ever been any studies done re: allocation to pure commodities, versus allocation to a sector equity index? Do the sector equity indexes capture the same effect as the pure commodities?
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    • ON: Wed Apr 23rd 15:53 PM
      Commented on:
      Craig Israelsen: Commodities Provide Good Diversification
      Excellent summary Tim. I actually read the same article over HAI a couple days ago (you're right, its a GREAT site), and you're article summarizes it nicely as well. You're six asset portfolio, minus the cash, is what I have in my son's 529 account for college, and reading this really made me think how great it'd be if 529 plan I am in added commodities as an investment!
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