General Motors IPO: Baffled by the Negativity [View article]
Why the no-interest? Because the only sales are government-bought fleet sales. No one actually wants to buy one of their vehicles for their own, if they can afford to buy, they buy Ford, Honda, Toyota, Hyundai products. So it's fundamentals on revenue outlook that are putting out the bad vibes. Dead money at BEST.
4 Stocks Poised to Benefit as Investors Pile Into the Market [View article]
I was of the impression that insider selling to buying ratio has been building and has been massively, like a couple thousand to one, for a number of months. If they're selling and the individual investor is buying, and the individual investor has been buying bonds too, and housing prices haven't rebounded and individual income hasn't rebounded, and employment hasn't rebounded...who is left to do the buying? And this also means that the insiders are selling the shares that the individuals are buying.
So do you buy these discount brokers and short the market?
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
How can the dollar climb a wall of worry when there are so many of them and more being added, doesn't that dilution mean continued dropping of the price of the dollar?
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
Just where is this inflation to come from? Yes, commodities are super booming, denominated in dollars as they are. But so far, except for those commodities, whenever I go shopping, prices have dropped, not risen. Generally I can get a lower bid for my dollar...isn't that what they call deflation, when someone will undercut the bid for my trade?
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
If the jobs numbers are phony, as I believe they have been (something like a hundred consecutive weeks of job numbers being revised the week and month later, due to the original being from creative modeling...and more, including fudged birth-death adjustments too...and the unemployment numbers similarly fudged (when workers on unemployment for 99 weeks lose their benefits and so are no longer counted as unemployed, is it because they have a job? No...)....then who is doing the buying that creates revenues that order new inventory that creates profits that drive business investment that creates jobs that buy houses? Obviously the "P" in P/E is wonderful. What is the real "E"? Does the PE return to real life someday? Or is liquidity the substitute these days for actual consumer product and services revenues?
How can home prices materially go up if you don't know who owns the house you are buying? I wouldn't buy a house I couldn't prove the "owner" actually does own it, especially if the the notarization signature (s) was fraudulent ("robo" signing, anyone? Deed of trust lost in the securitization shuffle, anyone?)
Hate to repeat myself at this late date, so I'll just ref in my comments on the TIPS article today and see if any of it makes sense. That is, if any of you can put down your spears long enough. Thx
TIPS Signal That Fed Is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
So maybe hard asset prices, dollar denominated, go up because they are supported by devalued dollars and demand from emerging economies...everything else seemingly must fade and wait out the coming depression in end user demand in the West. Even stocks can be buoyed by deflating dollar "inflation", for a while, but in the end, if demand malaise sucks down future earnings growth more, PE ratios have to come in some day, don't they? Until spenders have more to spend and are willing to go into debt to accelerate it. And that happens when jobs come back. Jobs Jobs Jobs. Paying what they paid before, too, and confidence to spend against it and go into more debt, too.
And something else about demand: Once the long term appetite, addiction, for stuff is turned, how long does it take to become ebullient again? Or is the government going to buy up all forms of debt, indefinitely? Going to pay my credit card bill for me too? (Actually, I wouldn't put this administration past it, it's already bought or guaranteed so much bad paper and forgiven strategic defaulters, makes me wonder why I should keep paying my own mortgage...why not take over the whole economy?)
And something else: why would the Chinese go along? Every time the dollar goes down and their US bonds go up, they take a bath on the currency loss devaluation, maybe even a net loss. Why should they help cut their own throats to feed our megalomaniac Fed and Treasury? When we go down the mis-applied Keynsian myth that more debt and liquidity to broke end users somehow fuels end user demand (at least, at this stage of end user disaffection...even stupid consumers' stupidity may have its limits). Kind of mystified by that. Now who here really believes the Chinese are stupid? I don't.
Now so far, of course, up to now I've been wrong. Can't deny that.
TIPS Signal That Fed Is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
Any "inflation" we see will be a monetary phenomenon of devalued price to reflect to dilution of dollars. But it will not be enough to offset price decline arising from lower levels of DEMAND for goods and services...when there are no jobs there is no demand, and when there is no demand, prices accepted for goods and services bid lower, not higher, and the cycle won't change until the buyers of goods and services have more money and willingness to pay more...demand at this phase we are in does not respond to more cash, but to having more jobs. And forget the phony government statistics about employment and unemployment, they are phony phony phony. Monetary inflation by pumping in too much money does not make up for lack of demand by demanders needing a job first to be willing to commit to new purchases...period. We could have stag-flation return just like that. The Japanese market topped out at 38,000 twenty years ago. Where is it today?
How We Know That the Market Is Tired [View article]
Seems to me that seasonality didn't apply to this Sept and Oct. And it also seems that the function of a bull market is to take as few people along with it as possible, whilst the function of a bear is to take as many people down with it as possible...how many bulls to bears out there these days?
How We Know That the Market Is Tired [View article]
The Fed is pushing money in through permanent open market operations, pushing the stock market up up up...and these guys have no conscience, they can keep it up for another trillion or so...because they have no conscience. Meanwhile the employment statistics are bold faced lies. This can go on forever because there is no fundamental decency or truth anymore, and no motivation to return to it...every new lie and POMO push receives a reward, so more and more will come in. The "market" is a bunch of high frequency agents. A cheaper dollar can buoy up the market indefinitely, as the dollar dies the market and commodities, all denominated in cheaper dollars, move higher even when there is no demand. Does it ever end?
Bond Market Instability in a Liquidity Trap [View article]
If the US rates stay low while more liqudity keeps the value of the dollar low, while foreign demand for US goods stays tepid...what happens to that Japan carry trade the Japanese have been living off of? Would THAT hurt Japan?
General Motors IPO: Baffled by the Negativity [View article]
Today in Commodities: Safe Haven Trade [View article]
4 Stocks Poised to Benefit as Investors Pile Into the Market [View article]
So do you buy these discount brokers and short the market?
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
Why Future Asset Bubbles Can Be Expected [View article]
Home Prices: Falling Again [View article]
The Fireworks Are About to Start [View article]
seekingalpha.com/artic...
TIPS Signal That Fed Is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
And something else about demand: Once the long term appetite, addiction, for stuff is turned, how long does it take to become ebullient again? Or is the government going to buy up all forms of debt, indefinitely? Going to pay my credit card bill for me too? (Actually, I wouldn't put this administration past it, it's already bought or guaranteed so much bad paper and forgiven strategic defaulters, makes me wonder why I should keep paying my own mortgage...why not take over the whole economy?)
And something else: why would the Chinese go along? Every time the dollar goes down and their US bonds go up, they take a bath on the currency loss devaluation, maybe even a net loss. Why should they help cut their own throats to feed our megalomaniac Fed and Treasury? When we go down the mis-applied Keynsian myth that more debt and liquidity to broke end users somehow fuels end user demand (at least, at this stage of end user disaffection...even stupid consumers' stupidity may have its limits). Kind of mystified by that. Now who here really believes the Chinese are stupid? I don't.
Now so far, of course, up to now I've been wrong. Can't deny that.
TIPS Signal That Fed Is Stuck Between a Rock and a Hard Place [View article]
How We Know That the Market Is Tired [View article]
How We Know That the Market Is Tired [View article]
How We Know That the Market Is Tired [View article]
Bond Market Instability in a Liquidity Trap [View article]