Marek

Marek
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  • Bank Stock Prices And Higher Interest Rates: Lessons From Bank Of America 1974  [View article]
    Seems to me that once rates start rising, FED funds rates follow, not lead; so really the markets are in charge, right? I don't see how the FED keeps rates down if rates want to go up, except to catch them by blasting ahead of them, fast...maybe by buying up long term debt? Like trying to catch horses out of the barn. And as rates go up, so does the price of new federal government borrowing. But I confess I don't know what the actual historical data shows.
    Jun 22, 2015. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stock Prices And Higher Interest Rates: Lessons From Bank Of America 1974  [View article]
    That does seem to be a very critical question to look at if you can, the idea what happens in the smaller (maybe shorter too) environment of specific ranges of interest rates, and maybe as well the time frames they occur in and whether they transition to even higher rates or flatten out/turn down again. Are we really looking at one long period or several distinct ones that would depart from the main theme, is the question. Seems fairly reasonable to ask. Acknowledged your dependent variable in the end is bank stocks' prices, not their margins! What the bank prices actually do is all the more intriguing. It's a hard counter-intuitive leap to make, so also is anchoring by assuming all interest rate risks are hedged. I encourage you sincerely to do follow up on it and also make it known when you do. But as stand alone on the very long picture, enjoyed the articles!!
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer's Bold Offer To Williams  [View article]
    That 1099 div rather than a K-1 distr. format would make holding an attractive difference to some, me for one.
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer's Bold Offer To Williams  [View article]
    Also wondering in particular, wondering whether that ETP pipeline play is over-hyped, and the ETE CEO knows it and needs to move on with the acquisition game, or if his history suggests real solid business development, as opposed to some of the more fly by night artists we've sometimes seen in some of the other players.
    Jun 22, 2015. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energy Transfer's Bold Offer To Williams  [View article]
    Has everyone but me missed the obvious piece, early on, by SA breaking news, that WMB has immediately rejected the offer as about 35% or more too conservative and has done the strategic move of hiring two banks to analyze three distinct strategic choice possibilities? That rejection COMBINED WITH THE HIRING OF ADVISORS AND SAYING SO PUBLICLY was the reason for the market move up and staying up hiring the advisors now puts WMB enough in play to sustain that price for the time it takes to do the study. Making all that public locks WMB into a plateau for now after the immediate price move, now going forward there is no point in speculation while the banks analyze, because now all info is old news and going to be replaced by the banks analysis, which must be done because WMB made it public and making it a public notice makes the mgt. publicly committed as fiduciary responsibility, they now would be exposed if they did not follow it through. It's this market reaction alone that is sufficient to say: the bid may go up, but not down, meanwhile new analysis has to be done on more specific metrics than this article can talk about, because it is not a specific analysis of this security. The market adjusted immediately and with nothing to do until the company is analyzed anew and given to the board, really there is no point reading the article in the first place, right now it is more of a hold and that's the message, it's going neither up nor down. The current business plan is now also moot pending the new analysis by the advisors hired.

    But WPZ could well jump down further, it's been over-priced based on the bubble talk. No longer.

    So WMB is going to hold right here unless ETE quits the bid and drops it's buyout pursuit. The LP is what is now in limbo but it's also adjusted.

    All of which makes this whole article now premature and too undetailed to put to much use.

    But she's disclaimed any company-specific value anyway, saying she is doing this as a macro exercise. If you're doing a macro piece, don't you really want to be talking about the pipeline and oil/gas price topic realm anyway, and on the E&P vs. midstream level of topic, the 100,000 foot view so to speak, and talking about the industry level issues? And not so much spending time on a specific security.

    What this does tell me to look at is the history of this guy running ETE and what that says. Looking under the covers, is this an ongoing acquisition and gaming strategy, i.e. Aubrey McClendon and Tom Ward gamers? And is this really about that pipeline that ETP is doing to move product from North Dakota down through NE and IA to the pipeline it has in Illinois? Thanks.
    Jun 22, 2015. 03:51 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stock Prices And Higher Interest Rates: Lessons From History  [View article]
    Dampflok, If rates rise very slowly or similarly flatten out/plateau, i.e., rates going up but gradually not sharply for many years, then would banks and other such assets not eventually recover after an initial move down?
    Jun 19, 2015. 01:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stock Prices And Higher Interest Rates: Lessons From History  [View article]
    I wonder whether that would have anything to do with the anticipation that broad market PE ratios in general (perhaps thus dragging also those of the financial sector or the big banks at least) might contract with the anticipated effect...i.e., "anticipated," of interest rates going up being presumed to mean also that inflation goes up or margins squeezed, and so discounting the perceived cut in margins that goes with the presumed/anticipated increase in inflation to come. It's not the impact on profits, it the perception of institutional investors (big funds, pensions, etc.) buying the stocks, or of their own financial managers adjusting their future cash flow assumptions.

    Well, hate to wait when for the next installment, especially if this idea could be relevant but not included, it's intriguing! Thank you either way, DVD.
    Jun 18, 2015. 11:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Stock Prices And Higher Interest Rates: Lessons From History  [View article]
    Could the same idea about the correlation of rates to stocks be tested using V and MA as derivatives, or proxies, of banks? or I suppose these are different sorts of markets entirely?
    Jun 18, 2015. 07:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Convenience store chains eye retailer-drugstore partnership threat  [View news story]
    I think Clark has been smoking his sox again.
    By the way, does anyone but me think Couche-Tard's name sounds an awful lot like a really swanky cuss word? "Avec and en Guarde, you smelly armpit of a Couche-Tard!"
    Jun 18, 2015. 07:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza Inhaled Insulin: A Game Changer For Seniors With Diabetes  [View article]
    Really good idea and article, Robert!!
    May 23, 2015. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MannKind's Afrezza Inhaled Insulin: A Game Changer For Seniors With Diabetes  [View article]
    I'm sure it would be worth the very small effort if everyone hitting the like button also wrote a note to the head of the FDA and their insurance company board, and one to each of their congress people about Medicare approving and to the head of CMS. I'm going to, Medicare is coming up for me and I have one grand kid with T1. Sylvia Matthews Burwell is the head of HHS. U.S. Department of Health & Human Services
    200 Independence Avenue, S.W. Washington, D.C. 20201
    May 23, 2015. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCP Inc: An Undervalued Large-Cap Healthcare REIT, Yielding 5.7%  [View article]
    Spend a night in a manor care. Then spend a day. Then spend a day reading your state's inspection reports for Manorcare facilities. You might be surprised that somehow that model is supposed to be profitable over time. As the old story moral goes: You don't want to eat that pig all at once. The dividend rate is high for a reason...it fits the risk. And if that's not enough, on the day the market is up 200 points, HCP managed to lose almost 1.5%. Deep value, as an optimist might say; right.
    May 15, 2015. 01:15 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCP Inc: An Undervalued Large-Cap Healthcare REIT, Yielding 5.7%  [View article]
    Rose needs to spend a week in a ManorCare facility, any one of her own choosing. Too risky for my money.
    May 15, 2015. 01:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • HCP Inc: An Undervalued Large-Cap Healthcare REIT, Yielding 5.7%  [View article]
    Helps to have a perspective based on experience in the industry. I wouldn't touch anything having much to do with ManorCare. It's like buying tobacco; you may earn but you are contributing to, well, what big tobacco contributes to. Manor Care is the low end of the quality spectrum. The price drop is fair, I wouldn't put my enemies into one of those Manor Care places, nursing facilities that do LTC are on the way out in favor of home health solutions, they just don't know it yet (or maybe they do). The congregate care model and particularly the niche within it that Manor Care occupies is just out of date. The prospect of interest rate increases just adds to the stress. Whatever judgment HCP displayed in choosing ManorCare to take over in the first place does not suggest good things about this management, and that's actually the killer for me. Happy to look elsewhere.
    May 15, 2015. 12:47 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look At Energy Transfer Partners' Distributable Cash Flow As Of 1Q 2015  [View article]
    Andrew Doolittle: VERY interesting comment, thanks!

    Though coal is on the political outs and never will make it back, and of course "shoulds" don't and won't really make much impact either, every society has to have its scapegoats, and coal is a universal favorite for the honor.
    May 15, 2015. 12:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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