ICouldBeWrong's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/169845/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-287521 287521

]]> Tue, 21 Oct 2008 23:05:21 -0400

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/100620-golden-age-for-japanese-financials-ahead-barron-s?source=feed#comment-286219 286219
More coverage of Japanese equities with minimal foreign exposure would be appreciated.
]]> Mon, 20 Oct 2008 09:48:08 -0400
More coverage of Japanese equities with minimal foreign exposure would be appreciated.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-285486 285486
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$XAL:$GOLD&p=D&am...
75% profit in 10 days.

Actually I'm very ignorant about airlines. I'm just researching their hedge positions now.

I must try to be more humble, stay flexible. Time to take profit or not? Something surprising is always around the corner. 12 hours until the currency markets open.
]]> Sun, 19 Oct 2008 04:49:53 -0400
stockcharts.com/h-sc/u...=$XAL:$GOLD&p=D&am...
75% profit in 10 days.

Actually I'm very ignorant about airlines. I'm just researching their hedge positions now.

I must try to be more humble, stay flexible. Time to take profit or not? Something surprising is always around the corner. 12 hours until the currency markets open.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/99720-gold-silver-ratio-tops-80-to-1?source=feed#comment-281922 281922
There are a few reasons I did this. See my previous comments for details.

And please don't misunderstand I think gold is a good long term investment. But either A) the stock market holds above its 2002 lows and now isn't a good time to buy gold as fear levels have already maxed out, or B) the stock market falls below 2002 lows and we're all in big trouble and you might be better off buying long life food and a gun instead of gold.

I think A) is the most probable outcome by far.
]]> Tue, 14 Oct 2008 05:43:45 -0400
There are a few reasons I did this. See my previous comments for details.

And please don't misunderstand I think gold is a good long term investment. But either A) the stock market holds above its 2002 lows and now isn't a good time to buy gold as fear levels have already maxed out, or B) the stock market falls below 2002 lows and we're all in big trouble and you might be better off buying long life food and a gun instead of gold.

I think A) is the most probable outcome by far.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-277510 277510
I guess it's time to start rotating out of the Yen and into a short gold / long airlines position now.
]]> Thu, 09 Oct 2008 03:26:50 -0400
I guess it's time to start rotating out of the Yen and into a short gold / long airlines position now.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-276619 276619
"and get ready for a big '87 style finale crash when the markets open again Wednesday New York time"

Well maybe not now, have to wait and see.
]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 08:19:12 -0400
"and get ready for a big '87 style finale crash when the markets open again Wednesday New York time"

Well maybe not now, have to wait and see.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-276461 276461
It's like someone getting a credit card and living off large cash advances. Until the limit is reached cash is freely available and inflation is high. But when the limit is reached (now) cash becomes extremely scarce. So USD will continue to rocket higher against most currencies, the JPY being perhaps the sole exception.

Now the Japanese are very wealthy (unlike the Japanese govt which is in debt), and are invested all over the world. They aren't reliant on commodity exports or in truth even manufactured products they are simply wealthy. So a worldwide depression and falling commodity prices won't hurt them so bad, in fact it will help them relative to other countries. Additionally as foreign markets go down (and get ready for a big '87 style finale crash when the markets open again Wednesday New York time) the Japanese will repatriate their wealth out of foreign currencies back into Yen.

There are many other factors too, Yen carry trade unwinding, Japanese interest rates at rock bottom, see also Jim "everyone should own some Yen" Rogers.

So a crash is relatively good for the Japanese. (And you can work out other things like during the big crash coming this week, gold may rise but afterwards it will fall like other commodities have been as panic subsides and the USD stays surprisingly strong).

Can anyone see any risk to say going short the AUD/JPY pair? Currency controls? Anything else? The daily interest is a high that's the only downside I can see, wait until USD/JPY breaks 100 any day/hour now. Then the Yen will really soar.

www.reuters.com/articl...

]]> Wed, 08 Oct 2008 00:04:13 -0400
It's like someone getting a credit card and living off large cash advances. Until the limit is reached cash is freely available and inflation is high. But when the limit is reached (now) cash becomes extremely scarce. So USD will continue to rocket higher against most currencies, the JPY being perhaps the sole exception.

Now the Japanese are very wealthy (unlike the Japanese govt which is in debt), and are invested all over the world. They aren't reliant on commodity exports or in truth even manufactured products they are simply wealthy. So a worldwide depression and falling commodity prices won't hurt them so bad, in fact it will help them relative to other countries. Additionally as foreign markets go down (and get ready for a big '87 style finale crash when the markets open again Wednesday New York time) the Japanese will repatriate their wealth out of foreign currencies back into Yen.

There are many other factors too, Yen carry trade unwinding, Japanese interest rates at rock bottom, see also Jim "everyone should own some Yen" Rogers.

So a crash is relatively good for the Japanese. (And you can work out other things like during the big crash coming this week, gold may rise but afterwards it will fall like other commodities have been as panic subsides and the USD stays surprisingly strong).

Can anyone see any risk to say going short the AUD/JPY pair? Currency controls? Anything else? The daily interest is a high that's the only downside I can see, wait until USD/JPY breaks 100 any day/hour now. Then the Yen will really soar.

www.reuters.com/articl...

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/98928-japanese-yen-etf-stands-tall-amid-global-carnage?source=feed#comment-276152 276152
I moved out of hard assets and into the Yen when I realized Bernanke isn't monetizing the debt, and that the debt won't be monetized until the administration is changed if ever (which is very bullish for US dollar).
]]> Tue, 07 Oct 2008 16:43:06 -0400
I moved out of hard assets and into the Yen when I realized Bernanke isn't monetizing the debt, and that the debt won't be monetized until the administration is changed if ever (which is very bullish for US dollar).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/95587-financials-leading-general-market-again?source=feed#comment-255534 255534
Anyway I agree that financials are leading the market again, but XLF is now leading the market down, not up!
]]> Tue, 16 Sep 2008 00:20:26 -0400
Anyway I agree that financials are leading the market again, but XLF is now leading the market down, not up!
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/94392-metals-manipulation-or-simply-deleveraging?source=feed#comment-248226 248226
Thanks for the great 321gold.com website.
]]> Mon, 08 Sep 2008 10:04:03 -0400
Thanks for the great 321gold.com website.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91764-crude-oil-at-bearish-extremes?source=feed#comment-238136 238136
Long crude I'm ok with, and I wouldn't be surprised if oil keeps on outperforming gold, (I think this makes sense if we've reached peak oil). But I think there are better shorting opportunities than gold, especially now after the steep fall in gold (1033/770~=733/550). I prefer to short XLF, the equities bear market leader, Historically gold has correlated with commodities, and commodities have correlated with oil. Oil up, will drag gold up.

I'm not sure about using the COT reports, personally I've never been able to reliably profit from them.
]]> Mon, 25 Aug 2008 01:34:22 -0400
Long crude I'm ok with, and I wouldn't be surprised if oil keeps on outperforming gold, (I think this makes sense if we've reached peak oil). But I think there are better shorting opportunities than gold, especially now after the steep fall in gold (1033/770~=733/550). I prefer to short XLF, the equities bear market leader, Historically gold has correlated with commodities, and commodities have correlated with oil. Oil up, will drag gold up.

I'm not sure about using the COT reports, personally I've never been able to reliably profit from them.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91115-time-to-cover-those-housing-shorts?source=feed#comment-231754 231754
John: I don't think Cam is calling a bottom in real estate, because under the homebuilders chart he writes 'Warning: I am not calling a real estate bottom!', and later writes 'Meredith Whitney, who correctly called the credit and housing crisis, is also forecasting further downside in housing because of tightening credit conditions:'.

Instead Cam appears to be calling the beginning of a bottoming process in homebuilders.
]]> Sat, 16 Aug 2008 04:39:36 -0400
John: I don't think Cam is calling a bottom in real estate, because under the homebuilders chart he writes 'Warning: I am not calling a real estate bottom!', and later writes 'Meredith Whitney, who correctly called the credit and housing crisis, is also forecasting further downside in housing because of tightening credit conditions:'.

Instead Cam appears to be calling the beginning of a bottoming process in homebuilders.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/90003-getting-more-constructive-on-crude-oil?source=feed#comment-226649 226649
I also wonder if the recent period of global warming is entirely natural, was possibly caused by solar activity and will give way to a global cooling period some time in the next decade.

People who are skeptical of peak oil should read Hubbert's 1956 paper nuclear energy and the fossil fuels (google for it). Honestly it's simply a question of when not if.

But even though I believe in peak oil, and worry about resource wars I'm not a doomer. I believe where this is a will there is a way and we will not only solve our energy crisis but eventually (no pain no gain) move forward to a future of cheap and abundant energy. (See my previous comments on Polywell fusion here on seeking alpha).

Regarding trading. On Friday I went short S&P500 futures, short XLF, long gold, silver, oil futures.

Especially the oil futures were risky, and there's every possibility I was too early. But this invasion of Georgia by Russia this weekend might help my case. And I can't buy this US dollar rally, the real resistance is 78-80 on the dollar index, the housing market is still going down, and bad surprises keep on coming out of the financials.

The xlf broke down on Thursday out of a month long linear uptrend, retraced on Friday but couldn't break through resistance from the break down. S&P500 now at 50 day moving average resistance, at round number resistance (1300), at triple top resistance (1290-1300), and is in a month long bearish rising wedge formation.

Maybe I'm wrong I'm trading light position sizes with carefully chosen stops.
]]> Sat, 09 Aug 2008 06:09:20 -0400
I also wonder if the recent period of global warming is entirely natural, was possibly caused by solar activity and will give way to a global cooling period some time in the next decade.

People who are skeptical of peak oil should read Hubbert's 1956 paper nuclear energy and the fossil fuels (google for it). Honestly it's simply a question of when not if.

But even though I believe in peak oil, and worry about resource wars I'm not a doomer. I believe where this is a will there is a way and we will not only solve our energy crisis but eventually (no pain no gain) move forward to a future of cheap and abundant energy. (See my previous comments on Polywell fusion here on seeking alpha).

Regarding trading. On Friday I went short S&P500 futures, short XLF, long gold, silver, oil futures.

Especially the oil futures were risky, and there's every possibility I was too early. But this invasion of Georgia by Russia this weekend might help my case. And I can't buy this US dollar rally, the real resistance is 78-80 on the dollar index, the housing market is still going down, and bad surprises keep on coming out of the financials.

The xlf broke down on Thursday out of a month long linear uptrend, retraced on Friday but couldn't break through resistance from the break down. S&P500 now at 50 day moving average resistance, at round number resistance (1300), at triple top resistance (1290-1300), and is in a month long bearish rising wedge formation.

Maybe I'm wrong I'm trading light position sizes with carefully chosen stops.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87337-gold-buy-signal-approaching?source=feed#comment-217142 217142
Jake2: Personally I like zealllc.com. Their Long Valuation Waves series is excellent, also Real Rates and Gold is good, amongst many others.

But I differ from zealllc.com in that I consider deflation to be a more serious threat than them.
]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 06:26:10 -0400
Jake2: Personally I like zealllc.com. Their Long Valuation Waves series is excellent, also Real Rates and Gold is good, amongst many others.

But I differ from zealllc.com in that I consider deflation to be a more serious threat than them.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87337-gold-buy-signal-approaching?source=feed#comment-216210 216210
Can you provide any links to allow verification of this statement?
]]> Mon, 28 Jul 2008 04:25:31 -0400
Can you provide any links to allow verification of this statement?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86582-a-glut-of-petroleum-products?source=feed#comment-212941 212941
]]> Thu, 24 Jul 2008 00:51:59 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86423-wednesday-outlook-commodities-emerging-markets?source=feed#comment-212258 212258
I plead guilty by the way. Went short S&P500 at 1259 got squeezed out at 1271. Sold all my Yen, have to totally regroup and rethink.

It was an exciting day, great battle.
]]> Wed, 23 Jul 2008 09:24:39 -0400
I plead guilty by the way. Went short S&P500 at 1259 got squeezed out at 1271. Sold all my Yen, have to totally regroup and rethink.

It was an exciting day, great battle.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85781-notes-on-a-schizophrenic-market-week?source=feed#comment-209634 209634 Ames: Please keep posting, I'm following your comments.

Personally the last 6 weeks have been very good to me. Going short the S&P500 at 1400 and then covering at 1210-1220. (See my previous comments). The equity markets recent action seems quite logical to me and not schizophrenic at all.

I did lose a little on my commodities trades, and broke even on my currency trades, but big gains in my equity shorts have resulted in another 0 being added to my day trading account.

Maybe, maybe, crude will rally back up to $136ish, I'm not sure. But over the coming months I expect commodities, the S&P500 and global equity markets in general to sell off in tandem. Which is actually what I was expecting several months ago, seems I was a little early on commodities.

Long Yen. Short Equities.
]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 04:58:34 -0400 Ames: Please keep posting, I'm following your comments.

Personally the last 6 weeks have been very good to me. Going short the S&P500 at 1400 and then covering at 1210-1220. (See my previous comments). The equity markets recent action seems quite logical to me and not schizophrenic at all.

I did lose a little on my commodities trades, and broke even on my currency trades, but big gains in my equity shorts have resulted in another 0 being added to my day trading account.

Maybe, maybe, crude will rally back up to $136ish, I'm not sure. But over the coming months I expect commodities, the S&P500 and global equity markets in general to sell off in tandem. Which is actually what I was expecting several months ago, seems I was a little early on commodities.

Long Yen. Short Equities.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85784-are-commodities-reversing-or-consolidating?source=feed#comment-209625 209625 www.zealllc.com/2008/c.... I would recommend using the CCI for long term charts instead.

This is similar to the VIX/VXO issue I mentioned in my last post. This is basic stuff guys, don't you care about the money you manage? Please at least know how your indexes are computed!

dieuwer: I agree with you that Dow/Gold ratio is likely to return to 1. But the way I compute it the CRB:SPX ratio is at a two week low not a 10 year low, maybe you need to check your chart. (And as I just said for charts more than 3 years old you should use the CCI not the CRB).

Personally I'm very bearish on equities, and have turned bearish/neutral on commodities in the medium (2 year) term. I own some commodities for the long term but are expecting to lose money on them in the next 2 years.

I believe we are beginning to see substantial demand destruction in energy. Global stock markets have been going down now for about 12 months, that should be long enough to start to flow through into reduced demand for commodities.

Long Yen. Short Equities.
]]> Sun, 20 Jul 2008 02:47:07 -0400 www.zealllc.com/2008/c.... I would recommend using the CCI for long term charts instead.

This is similar to the VIX/VXO issue I mentioned in my last post. This is basic stuff guys, don't you care about the money you manage? Please at least know how your indexes are computed!

dieuwer: I agree with you that Dow/Gold ratio is likely to return to 1. But the way I compute it the CRB:SPX ratio is at a two week low not a 10 year low, maybe you need to check your chart. (And as I just said for charts more than 3 years old you should use the CCI not the CRB).

Personally I'm very bearish on equities, and have turned bearish/neutral on commodities in the medium (2 year) term. I own some commodities for the long term but are expecting to lose money on them in the next 2 years.

I believe we are beginning to see substantial demand destruction in energy. Global stock markets have been going down now for about 12 months, that should be long enough to start to flow through into reduced demand for commodities.

Long Yen. Short Equities.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85091-volatility-and-sentiment-today-doesn-t-matter?source=feed#comment-207000 207000
Small loss in commodities (due solely to crude). Breaking even on Yen. Big profits shorting S&P500. Time for a short break.
]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 12:56:20 -0400
Small loss in commodities (due solely to crude). Breaking even on Yen. Big profits shorting S&P500. Time for a short break.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85091-volatility-and-sentiment-today-doesn-t-matter?source=feed#comment-206569 206569
I also find the vixandmore website interesting and only found it by accident myself a few days ago. Another thing I found interesting (alarming really) is that the methodology used to compute the VIX itself has changed, so it's no longer the VIX its something different now. The old (REAL!!!) vix has now been renamed to VXO on stockcharts.com.

Good article about that here:
zealllc.com/2008/vxosp...
]]> Wed, 16 Jul 2008 00:08:23 -0400
I also find the vixandmore website interesting and only found it by accident myself a few days ago. Another thing I found interesting (alarming really) is that the methodology used to compute the VIX itself has changed, so it's no longer the VIX its something different now. The old (REAL!!!) vix has now been renamed to VXO on stockcharts.com.

Good article about that here:
zealllc.com/2008/vxosp...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84998-why-are-oil-prices-so-high-gold-solves-the-riddle?source=feed#comment-205974 205974 ]]> Tue, 15 Jul 2008 10:47:27 -0400 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84704-who-s-to-blame-for-indymac-s-failure?source=feed#comment-204097 204097
He definitely didn't break the Bank Of England in '92 or cause the Asian currency crisis. Those things were going to happen with or without him, he just profited from the trend. If you are going to blame him for that you might as well hate anyway who has invested in a market or has funds in a pension plan.

He also appears to have done a lot of good for the world. e.g. Donating money for photocopiers in the former Soviet Union to help people spread information and communicate. He also has funded many artistic and scientific organizations, in the former Soviet Union, South Africa, and even Burma I believe. I find it hard to see that as a bad thing.

He does strictly separate business and philanthropy. He invested heavily in Russia during the beginning of the collapse in an attempt to stabilize the region and help it rebuild, that turned out badly and he lost money. So now he strictly separates business and charity, I can't say I blame him for it.

The reason he doesn't like Bush is because he thinks bush is leading the US towards fascism. He wants to make sure free speech and the rule of law is protected in the USA.

Personally I wish he would have funded Ron Paul rather than the Democrats, but as I said I don't agree with his politics.

Finally let me end with something slightly critical about Soros. The Quantum fund (best performing hedge fund over a 30year period IIRC) was founded by Soros and Jim Rogers. Soros is no dummy and he was very generous in describing how the global financial system works and how to run a hedge fund in his books. (Thanks George!). But Rogers left to do his own thing, and given the superior returns made by Rogers compared to Soros over the last 10 years I have to consider Rogers the better investor.
]]> Sun, 13 Jul 2008 07:27:51 -0400
He definitely didn't break the Bank Of England in '92 or cause the Asian currency crisis. Those things were going to happen with or without him, he just profited from the trend. If you are going to blame him for that you might as well hate anyway who has invested in a market or has funds in a pension plan.

He also appears to have done a lot of good for the world. e.g. Donating money for photocopiers in the former Soviet Union to help people spread information and communicate. He also has funded many artistic and scientific organizations, in the former Soviet Union, South Africa, and even Burma I believe. I find it hard to see that as a bad thing.

He does strictly separate business and philanthropy. He invested heavily in Russia during the beginning of the collapse in an attempt to stabilize the region and help it rebuild, that turned out badly and he lost money. So now he strictly separates business and charity, I can't say I blame him for it.

The reason he doesn't like Bush is because he thinks bush is leading the US towards fascism. He wants to make sure free speech and the rule of law is protected in the USA.

Personally I wish he would have funded Ron Paul rather than the Democrats, but as I said I don't agree with his politics.

Finally let me end with something slightly critical about Soros. The Quantum fund (best performing hedge fund over a 30year period IIRC) was founded by Soros and Jim Rogers. Soros is no dummy and he was very generous in describing how the global financial system works and how to run a hedge fund in his books. (Thanks George!). But Rogers left to do his own thing, and given the superior returns made by Rogers compared to Soros over the last 10 years I have to consider Rogers the better investor.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/84626-how-low-can-this-market-go-the-40-percent-solution?source=feed#comment-203566 203566
On the one hand crude has clearly gone parabolic. On the other hand other commodities like Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is trading at a similar price to 1980 in nominal terms, that is without adjusting for inflation.

I guess I will hold for now, or maybe accumulate a little more precious metals and OJ.
]]> Sat, 12 Jul 2008 07:12:14 -0400
On the one hand crude has clearly gone parabolic. On the other hand other commodities like Frozen Concentrated Orange Juice is trading at a similar price to 1980 in nominal terms, that is without adjusting for inflation.

I guess I will hold for now, or maybe accumulate a little more precious metals and OJ.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83959-the-after-hours-oil-scam?source=feed#comment-200363 200363
Honestly sometimes I'm tempted to sell at noon Chinese time and buy at noon New York time myself.
]]> Tue, 08 Jul 2008 00:58:38 -0400
Honestly sometimes I'm tempted to sell at noon Chinese time and buy at noon New York time myself.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83707-commodities-are-taken-to-the-woodshed-what-s-the-game-plan?source=feed#comment-198347 198347
Long commodities. Short equities. Long Yen.
]]> Fri, 04 Jul 2008 00:08:39 -0400
Long commodities. Short equities. Long Yen.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83229-going-new-school-about-indexing?source=feed#comment-196937 196937
In the long run (40 years). I'm an optimist on the economy. I agree with Warren Buffet that index funds make sense for most people. I think we will solve our energy problems (via Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactors, sorry to use the f word), and the USA could even led colonization of the galaxy this century.

In the more immediate future (2-5 years) I'm very pessimistic. Both the credit crisis and energy crisis are real problems that aren't going to dissapear overnight. So I'm mainly in cash (AUD as that's were I happen to reside. I actually expect the AUD to fall in the short term, but at least interest rates are 7%ish, which is ok, and going up. And Japanese Yen JPY, for a carry trade play, as Jim Rogers says 'everyone should own some yen').

Being in cash I need an inflation hedge. So I'm also buying some commodities, even oil. Yeah oil is going to crash I agree, the question is will it go to 150ish and crash back down to 100ish, or will it go to 200ish and crash back down to 130ish. I'm beginning to think we are going to 200. (So really correct rather than crash)

I'm also still short the S&P500 and selected stocks. That's about it.

Please allow me to give a few links regarding the Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactor. If you are feeling down about energy prices this stuff could really cheer you up.
video.google.com/video...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
]]> Tue, 01 Jul 2008 23:30:48 -0400
In the long run (40 years). I'm an optimist on the economy. I agree with Warren Buffet that index funds make sense for most people. I think we will solve our energy problems (via Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactors, sorry to use the f word), and the USA could even led colonization of the galaxy this century.

In the more immediate future (2-5 years) I'm very pessimistic. Both the credit crisis and energy crisis are real problems that aren't going to dissapear overnight. So I'm mainly in cash (AUD as that's were I happen to reside. I actually expect the AUD to fall in the short term, but at least interest rates are 7%ish, which is ok, and going up. And Japanese Yen JPY, for a carry trade play, as Jim Rogers says 'everyone should own some yen').

Being in cash I need an inflation hedge. So I'm also buying some commodities, even oil. Yeah oil is going to crash I agree, the question is will it go to 150ish and crash back down to 100ish, or will it go to 200ish and crash back down to 130ish. I'm beginning to think we are going to 200. (So really correct rather than crash)

I'm also still short the S&P500 and selected stocks. That's about it.

Please allow me to give a few links regarding the Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactor. If you are feeling down about energy prices this stuff could really cheer you up.
video.google.com/video...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83021-sometimes-a-bear-is-just-a-bear?source=feed#comment-195025 195025
What if oil has broken out of the trading range between 130-140 a barrel and is heading higher? What if it hits $150 a barrel this week, then I think we will see fear.
]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:46:30 -0400
What if oil has broken out of the trading range between 130-140 a barrel and is heading higher? What if it hits $150 a barrel this week, then I think we will see fear.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83021-sometimes-a-bear-is-just-a-bear?source=feed#comment-195017 195017
Having said that if the market rallies to 1290-1310 on Monday morning New York time I will consider that a reasonably good opportunity to short more. If such a rally occurs on Monday, and we continue to repeat the 2000-2003 bear then we should hit 1150 before we hit 1400, (in fact we shouldn't see 1400 again for several years).

But that's assuming we continue to rhyme with the 2000-2003 bear. A better risk/reward opportunity is to wait until the S&P500 rallies to say within 5% of the 200dma (with a stop set say 12% above the 200dma). The 200dma should provide strong resistance, but this setup could take several months to occur (about 3 months if we rhyme with the last bear, and at about where we are now ~1300) and hence will require more patience.

Another note, I would like to hedge every short position with a long position. (e.g. to hedge against hyper-inflation) so I might go long some more commodities.
]]> Sun, 29 Jun 2008 04:14:26 -0400
Having said that if the market rallies to 1290-1310 on Monday morning New York time I will consider that a reasonably good opportunity to short more. If such a rally occurs on Monday, and we continue to repeat the 2000-2003 bear then we should hit 1150 before we hit 1400, (in fact we shouldn't see 1400 again for several years).

But that's assuming we continue to rhyme with the 2000-2003 bear. A better risk/reward opportunity is to wait until the S&P500 rallies to say within 5% of the 200dma (with a stop set say 12% above the 200dma). The 200dma should provide strong resistance, but this setup could take several months to occur (about 3 months if we rhyme with the last bear, and at about where we are now ~1300) and hence will require more patience.

Another note, I would like to hedge every short position with a long position. (e.g. to hedge against hyper-inflation) so I might go long some more commodities.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/83022-vix-is-complacent-despite-new-2008-dow-low?source=feed#comment-194621 194621
I guess most equity market participants (S&P500 at least) are expecting the market to find a floor near the 52 week lows. If that doesn't happen, and the S&P500 breaks down to new lows (as I expect), then risk aversion could spike, quickly sending world equity markets much lower, fast.

I would be very cautious about using oscillators currently. In a trending market oscillators will give exactly the wrong signal as a breakdown/breakout occurs. This is not a good time to depend on short term reversion to the mean!
]]> Sat, 28 Jun 2008 05:32:15 -0400
I guess most equity market participants (S&P500 at least) are expecting the market to find a floor near the 52 week lows. If that doesn't happen, and the S&P500 breaks down to new lows (as I expect), then risk aversion could spike, quickly sending world equity markets much lower, fast.

I would be very cautious about using oscillators currently. In a trending market oscillators will give exactly the wrong signal as a breakdown/breakout occurs. This is not a good time to depend on short term reversion to the mean!
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