ICouldBeWrong

Crude Oil at Bearish Extremes

I find this article interesting and is certainly food for thought. Personally I'm not trading heavily at the moment and are restricting myself to light positions only.

Long crude I'm ok with, and I wouldn't be surprised if oil keeps on outperforming gold, (I think this makes sense if we've reached peak oil). But I think there are better shorting opportunities than gold, especially now after the steep fall in gold (1033/770~=733/550). I prefer to short XLF, the equities bear market leader, Historically gold has correlated with commodities, and commodities have correlated with oil. Oil up, will drag gold up.

I'm not sure about using the COT reports, personally I've never been able to reliably profit from them.