ICouldBeWrong

Going New-School About Indexing

I also have been enjoying this column and could become a regular reader.

In the long run (40 years). I'm an optimist on the economy. I agree with Warren Buffet that index funds make sense for most people. I think we will solve our energy problems (via Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactors, sorry to use the f word), and the USA could even led colonization of the galaxy this century.

In the more immediate future (2-5 years) I'm very pessimistic. Both the credit crisis and energy crisis are real problems that aren't going to dissapear overnight. So I'm mainly in cash (AUD as that's were I happen to reside. I actually expect the AUD to fall in the short term, but at least interest rates are 7%ish, which is ok, and going up. And Japanese Yen JPY, for a carry trade play, as Jim Rogers says 'everyone should own some yen').

Being in cash I need an inflation hedge. So I'm also buying some commodities, even oil. Yeah oil is going to crash I agree, the question is will it go to 150ish and crash back down to 100ish, or will it go to 200ish and crash back down to 130ish. I'm beginning to think we are going to 200. (So really correct rather than crash)

I'm also still short the S&P500 and selected stocks. That's about it.

Please allow me to give a few links regarding the Farnsworth/Bussard fusion reactor. If you are feeling down about energy prices this stuff could really cheer you up.
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