ICouldBeWrong

Crude Oil at Bearish Extremes

I find this article interesting and is certainly food for thought. Personally I'm not trading heavily at the moment and are restricting myself to light positions only.

Long crude I'm ok with, and I wouldn't be surprised if oil keeps on outperforming gold, (I think this makes sense if we've reached peak oil). But I think there are better shorting opportunities than gold, especially now after the steep fall in gold (1033/770~=733/550). I prefer to short XLF, the equities bear market leader, Historically gold has correlated with commodities, and commodities have correlated with oil. Oil up, will drag gold up.

I'm not sure about using the COT reports, personally I've never been able to reliably profit from them.

Getting More Constructive on Crude Oil

Apart from the weird dates on the Heebner chart (anyone got a link to a correct chart?), very nice article. And Hui congrats on your timely $150 top call in oil, well done.

I also wonder if the recent period of global warming is entirely natural, was possibly caused by solar activity and will give way to a global cooling period some time in the next decade.

People who are skeptical of peak oil should read Hubbert's 1956 paper nuclear energy and the fossil fuels (google for it). Honestly it's simply a question of when not if.

But even though I believe in peak oil, and worry about resource wars I'm not a doomer. I believe where this is a will there is a way and we will not only solve our energy crisis but eventually (no pain no gain) move forward to a future of cheap and abundant energy. (See my previous comments on Polywell fusion here on seeking alpha).

Regarding trading. On Friday I went short S&P500 futures, short XLF, long gold, silver, oil futures.

Especially the oil futures were risky, and there's every possibility I was too early. But this invasion of Georgia by Russia this weekend might help my case. And I can't buy this US dollar rally, the real resistance is 78-80 on the dollar index, the housing market is still going down, and bad surprises keep on coming out of the financials.

The xlf broke down on Thursday out of a month long linear uptrend, retraced on Friday but couldn't break through resistance from the break down. S&P500 now at 50 day moving average resistance, at round number resistance (1300), at triple top resistance (1290-1300), and is in a month long bearish rising wedge formation.

Maybe I'm wrong I'm trading light position sizes with carefully chosen stops.

A Glut of Petroleum Products

dieuwer: No I didn't know that. What makes you say that? Any links?

Wednesday Outlook: Commodities, Emerging Markets

Great article.

I plead guilty by the way. Went short S&P500 at 1259 got squeezed out at 1271. Sold all my Yen, have to totally regroup and rethink.

It was an exciting day, great battle.

Why Are Oil Prices So High? Gold Solves the Riddle

Good article. Good comments.

The After Hours Oil Scam

StevenK exactly! If Mr Davis has detected a pattern in the market (manipulation of not) then why not profit from it?

Honestly sometimes I'm tempted to sell at noon Chinese time and buy at noon New York time myself.