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  • Superconductor Zenergy Raises £9.5M for U.S. Smart Grid Efforts [View article]
    Looks like Zenergy is a very small player here. American Superconductor mentioned above seems to be the a dominant one.
    Revenues comparison:
    Zenergy: this year revenue $2.7M, last revenue $355,000
    AMSC: this year (FY2009) estimate $225M, last year (~$185M)

    The following detailed analyst's slides shows the competitive landscape. (pretty long presentation, page 122 mentioned Zenergy)

    library.corporate-ir.n...
    May 05 14:04 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Breaking Down PowerShares' New Pure Play Wind ETF [View article]
    More than 80% of AMSC's order backlog is wind turbine components. The remaining business is HTS and power grid / transmission related products. If you are at all familiar with the wind industry, or if you ask anyone in this industry what are some of the urgent issues to be solved, one of the top ones is transmission: how to connect the wind farms to the grid. Another most frequent seen is probably how to regulate the power. These are the products AMSC is offering. For a more complete overview, see the presentation link below:

    library.corporate-ir.n...
    Jul 25 11:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Rio Tinto's "Great Wall": Will It Block BHP? [View article]
    Politics aside (I can really care less about some of the previous comments under brainwashed bias), I see investment opportunities instead, from these news. Rio Tinto is interesting. But the fact Aussie's having the coking coal shortage (due to recent rain, port problems, etc.), together with the depressed dollar, makes some of the US coal producer stocks VERY interesting. Best fit probably Alpha Natual Resources (ANR) which is in the best position to profit with its met coal reserves and operations. Met coal contract at Japanese steel makers recently increased to 3X its previous contract prices..
    Apr 16 03:04 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Goldman Sach's Upgrade Makes Coal Burn Brighter [View article]

    Agree. Coal stocks are good places to be in the foreseeable future. Here's some excerpt of an analysis on Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) that I thought was interesting. Can't find the link.

    ************* begin excerpt on ANR **************
    28 total tons is my total est 2009 based on q4 07 production of 7.5 mil tons

    We know for sure that 5 mil steam coal and 3.5 of met are priced at $70 and $100 for 2009
    My calculations assume that the remaining 2/3 of production will be priced at:
    $100 for steam coal
    $175 for met coal

    From ANR company presentation on their website.. cost of sales have been consistently just under $50 a ton for several years... my calcs assume a 10% rise in costs to $54 a ton

    5 x 70 + 3.5 x 100 + 11 x 90 + 8.5 x 175 = 350 + 350 + 990 + 1500 = 3.2 billion


    3.2 bill / 28 mil tons = $114 average sales price per ton..

    Costs at roughly $54/ton.. $60 margin per ton (Im assuming a 10% increase in costs based on CEO expectations)

    $60 profit per ton x 28 million tons = 1.68 billion in net income

    1.68 billion over 65 million = $25.85 earnings per share minus 33% taxes yield $17.32 eps

    $17.32 per share x PE 10 = $173 share price by mid 2009 or so

    ************* end of excerpt on ANR **************
    Mar 29 02:01 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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