orca

Gold Is Not in a Bull Market

Jon Nadler should realize that his remark about Saudi-Arabia taking in sand is the plain truth for dozens of years already. They have a lot of sand, but not of the right quality for building, so actually they have to import the stuff.
Regarding the rest of the article I will be brief. Someone who believes the FED wil start tightening aggresively I can not take seriously, sorry.

E*Trade's Brokerage Business Shouldn't Be Ignored

Whatever happened to my gall Cindy, this was the stock she climaxed on and on and on...

Are U.S. Home Foreclosures Caught in a Never Ending Vicious Cycle?

From the NYT, on building trust in the housing market: Mr. Borodinsky outlines what it takes to qualify for a mortgage and, if asked to do so, explains how to improve an individual credit score. (A sample tip: “Don’t max out on a credit card. If your limit is $10,000, and you have a $9,000 balance, transfer $4,000 to another credit card with a $10,0000 limit, and juggle those balances so the score improves.”)

IMHO this is the root cause of the problem, all that fancy juggling going on until this very day, instead of healthy measures by individuals. The whole experiment has become unstuck and even if housing-prices stabilise at some point that doesn't mean it will move back up. L-shape versus V-shape, and I am in the L camp. It isn't about housing anymore, it is about helathy levels of credit.

Inflation, Deflation, Whatever: People Buy Gold in Money Crises

My reason for being long fysical gold is that it is the only portable and liquid fiat currency hedge. Top quality diamonds are fine too, 10 carat and up, however you can't break a 10-carat diamond in 100 pieces when bartering. Silver is too bulky for its worth. Moreover gold (in Europe, I don't know if true in the USA) is VAT exempt since supposedly there aren't many industrial uses (hence the VAT exempt) for it. I hope for a crash in gold so I can add to my position but I don't see it coming in this environment.

The Dwindling Value in AIG

I said it @ 50, said it @ 25, said it @ 15, said it @ 5 and I say it again @ 1: do you trust this company? Do you trust uncle Hank, do you trust the STARR shell in the Carribean, do you trust their financial reporting (on/off balance sh*t oops sheet specifically)?

'Helicopter Ben' Was Prophetic in 2002

Just so we are on the same page, the FED is n.o.t. the Central Bank of the USA, it is a group of commercial/investment banks. Therefore the entire alphabet-soup of emergency programs coming out of the institution (and the Treasury), leading to a transer of assets and liabilities from one balance sheet to another, is nothing more or less than an optical illusion.

3 Steps for America To Regain the World's Trust

Everybody obsessing about Dow 1,5k or not is missing the point. Dow in EUR in about 6,4k right now, and has fallen only about 20% from a multi-year level of about 8-8,5k. This is what Mr. Mason is referring to. Nominal Dow can go to 1 million but the world couldn't care less, since your currency will have gone Zimbabwean by then. As for wild guesses my guesstimate is nominal Dow at 4k, however exchange-weighted at EUR at around 2k.

Bernie Madoff Fraud Allegations: Truly Staggering

S**t happens. Can't he be bailed out, he's well-connected and he doesn't make cars, so I don't see the problem, really.

10 Contrarian Reasons for a Bottom

Let me add a foreign perspective. EUR/USD is rallying over 2% today, last Friday appr the same, with corresponding move in crude. USD down is a recipe for blowout, ie buying funny stocks at funny prices with funny money. There is an almost scary relation between EUR/USD bbp moves and the DOW, at this moment (15:35 GMT) 283bbp/280. Therefore I agree, for different reasons, with Mr. Hui. Fundamentally the picture is broken but in the coming 2 weeks we deserve a nice rally at the taxpayers expense.

AIG and the Lunacy of GAAP Reporting

You can take all equations, figures, graphs, ratios etc but the question remains: Do you trust this company? The market sure doesn't, neither do I, and the reason is very simple, Greenberg is still pulling the strings, through the STARR vehicle. I have said it at $50, I said it at $25 and I say it now at $15, it all starts and ends with trust. I sincerely hope this joint goes belly-up real quick.

The Disconnect Between Supply and Demand in Gold & Silver Markets

Little bit of historical perspective here. HH stands for Heil Hitler, sometimes these neo-nazis use 88 as it stands for the numerical value of the letter H. So much for that moron, let him/her die in a painfull fashion, I am not the "other cheek" kind of guy.
Now some European input, just FYI. All standard 1 oz coins are out of stock except for Krugerrand. Coins with smaller quantity of gold are available but only at relative (relative to before) small numbers. Gold bars are available (Credit Suisse stamped), also in small quantity. I checked yesterday (Friday August 22). Silver I have no idea, I am only interested in gold. Bottomline as far as I see it is that if you are a small investor, 1-10 oz buyer at a time, you can get your phisical delivery, although you have to compromise on the denomination (Kruger instead of Maple for example, or 100 gram bar instead of roughly 3.3 coins), however if you are in the market for a big lump at least through retail channels you are finding it impossible to fill at 1 stop. I am just really curious how some multi-millionaire is going to play this thing, when he wants to diversify out of paper (money, ETF, whatever). Hopefully one day I will be burdened with this problem, hahaha!
Good input here by the way.

AIG: Willumstad's Hard Choice

E Nuff Sed, I have no clue where you got the leverage 11x number but suppose, for arguments sake, that it is correct, then you must have gotten it off their on-balance statements. My point was, is, and will be that they can show you anything on-balance they want you to see, but you can not see their off-balance exposure. This is the problem with a lot of the financials, so before even bothering with numbercrunching ask yourself 1 simple question: Do you trust this company? The market sure doesn't, not only with regard to stockprice but more important with regard to credit spreads. I will be crystalclear here: I hate AIG and everything it stands for (uncle Hank comes to mind, the Angelo Mozilo of the insurance world, and his sons chipped from the same wood), have hated it for years, and the day they implode will be a joyfull day.

AIG: Willumstad's Hard Choice

Said it before, say it again, AIG is run like some sort of mob outfit, with their STARR shell in the Caribbean, headed by uncle Hank. Nobody has a clue what they are holding, where they are holding it and how it's accounted for. IMHO examining their balance-sheet is dangerous, since you are seeing only what they want you to see. First you have to trust a company. Honestly, do you?

The SEC's 'Sacred Cow' List: Where Are WaMu and Wachovia?

This is interesting information. I saw the list, didn't understand why some were and some weren't on it, especially the foreign ones, and although I'm not sure yet LBMA is the trigger to the compiled list it is not farfetched. Questions remain: why GS, why not WM/WB/etc, why not all 120 LBMA members (insofar that they have a US listing), but this truly is eye-opening. Good work Mark.

Did the E*Trade Baby Pay Off?

Subprime is soooo 2007-2008. About a month ago I said that ETFC only has a chance if trust is regained. For that to happen you need time, which is running out, with the the 3rd phase of the 1st wave (subprime - arm option reset) about to hit the beaches simultanuously with wave 2 (durable) and wave 3 (non-durable). I said it at $4 and I say it again at $3: play this baby (pun intended) long under $2 and short above $5, with defined risk.