orca's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/169881/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/170475-gold-is-not-in-a-bull-market?source=feed#comment-740171 740171 Regarding the rest of the article I will be brief. Someone who believes the FED wil start tightening aggresively I can not take seriously, sorry.]]> Mon, 02 Nov 2009 09:33:09 -0500 Regarding the rest of the article I will be brief. Someone who believes the FED wil start tightening aggresively I can not take seriously, sorry.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/125494-e-trade-s-brokerage-business-shouldn-t-be-ignored?source=feed#comment-423028 423028 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 09:52:53 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/123368-are-u-s-home-foreclosures-caught-in-a-never-ending-vicious-cycle?source=feed#comment-407542 407542
IMHO this is the root cause of the problem, all that fancy juggling going on until this very day, instead of healthy measures by individuals. The whole experiment has become unstuck and even if housing-prices stabilise at some point that doesn't mean it will move back up. L-shape versus V-shape, and I am in the L camp. It isn't about housing anymore, it is about helathy levels of credit.
]]> Sun, 01 Mar 2009 06:48:15 -0500
IMHO this is the root cause of the problem, all that fancy juggling going on until this very day, instead of healthy measures by individuals. The whole experiment has become unstuck and even if housing-prices stabilise at some point that doesn't mean it will move back up. L-shape versus V-shape, and I am in the L camp. It isn't about housing anymore, it is about helathy levels of credit.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/121446-inflation-deflation-whatever-people-buy-gold-in-money-crises?source=feed#comment-394720 394720 Thu, 19 Feb 2009 08:21:32 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/118052-the-dwindling-value-in-aig?source=feed#comment-375187 375187 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 04:40:42 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/111750-helicopter-ben-was-prophetic-in-2002?source=feed#comment-335456 335456 Mon, 22 Dec 2008 06:52:25 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/110498-3-steps-for-america-to-regain-the-world-s-trust?source=feed#comment-328755 328755 ]]> Sun, 14 Dec 2008 07:22:18 -0500 ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/110384-bernie-madoff-fraud-allegations-truly-staggering?source=feed#comment-327040 327040 Fri, 12 Dec 2008 05:27:53 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/109632-10-contrarian-reasons-for-a-bottom?source=feed#comment-323767 323767 Mon, 08 Dec 2008 10:36:06 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/92887-aig-and-the-lunacy-of-gaap-reporting?source=feed#comment-251443 251443 Thu, 11 Sep 2008 09:38:32 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/91357-the-disconnect-between-supply-and-demand-in-gold-silver-markets?source=feed#comment-237068 237068 Now some European input, just FYI. All standard 1 oz coins are out of stock except for Krugerrand. Coins with smaller quantity of gold are available but only at relative (relative to before) small numbers. Gold bars are available (Credit Suisse stamped), also in small quantity. I checked yesterday (Friday August 22). Silver I have no idea, I am only interested in gold. Bottomline as far as I see it is that if you are a small investor, 1-10 oz buyer at a time, you can get your phisical delivery, although you have to compromise on the denomination (Kruger instead of Maple for example, or 100 gram bar instead of roughly 3.3 coins), however if you are in the market for a big lump at least through retail channels you are finding it impossible to fill at 1 stop. I am just really curious how some multi-millionaire is going to play this thing, when he wants to diversify out of paper (money, ETF, whatever). Hopefully one day I will be burdened with this problem, hahaha!
Good input here by the way.]]> Sat, 23 Aug 2008 05:11:39 -0400 Now some European input, just FYI. All standard 1 oz coins are out of stock except for Krugerrand. Coins with smaller quantity of gold are available but only at relative (relative to before) small numbers. Gold bars are available (Credit Suisse stamped), also in small quantity. I checked yesterday (Friday August 22). Silver I have no idea, I am only interested in gold. Bottomline as far as I see it is that if you are a small investor, 1-10 oz buyer at a time, you can get your phisical delivery, although you have to compromise on the denomination (Kruger instead of Maple for example, or 100 gram bar instead of roughly 3.3 coins), however if you are in the market for a big lump at least through retail channels you are finding it impossible to fill at 1 stop. I am just really curious how some multi-millionaire is going to play this thing, when he wants to diversify out of paper (money, ETF, whatever). Hopefully one day I will be burdened with this problem, hahaha!
Good input here by the way.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89967-aig-willumstad-s-hard-choice?source=feed#comment-229364 229364 Wed, 13 Aug 2008 10:21:45 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/89967-aig-willumstad-s-hard-choice?source=feed#comment-227679 227679 Mon, 11 Aug 2008 09:44:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85999-the-sec-s-sacred-cow-list-where-are-wamu-and-wachovia?source=feed#comment-210790 210790 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 13:35:41 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/83141-did-the-e-trade-baby-pay-off?source=feed#comment-196057 196057 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 13:56:01 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/81062-s-p-upgrades-e-trade-despite-struggling-financial-sector-peers?source=feed#comment-185411 185411 Since what is happening here seems to be some sort of extrapolation on general sentiment I will make a serious effort to share my thoughts and observations with you all. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

First off though I want to state my position on ETFC, just so I won't be accused of being a pumper nor a basher. Currently I have no position in ETFC. When I said they will out-beta any index by 300-500% it should be clear that beta works either way. The $5-mark / 90% fail-break observation (and $2 for that matter) didn't get any feedback, which is a pity since it is one of the most overlooked yet reliable rules in the whole wide stock universe (valid even with optical plays such as reverse splitting).

Now for the real work, starting with the general state of affairs. In my opinion we haven't yet scrathed the surface of what will become a world of pain. The Dow is off by some 20%, peanuts, in EUR terms the Dow has been stuck, for 5 years running, around the 8k-10k mark. Currently it is at 8k (12307,35 * 0.65), and yes, as you perhaps had guessed already, I am European. That's what happens when the USD goes Zimbabwean. It is my belief that we're currently in the 2nd phase of the 1st wave (mortgage meldown). The 3rd and final phase will start shortly, with (Option) ARM reset. The second and third wave will come ashore this fall, they are durable-credit and non-durable credit, and these waves will be bigger, longer and have a much greater impact than the first wave, difficult to imagine as it is, because they will affect not just upside-down home-owners and financials, they will hit everybody. This is the real unwind, affecting people in mortgage-free houses too, and it will take at least a decade to work through it, possibly much more (just ask our harikiri friends how they are doing, some 20 years after the top). Cash will be king, which doesn't spell much good for stocks, and you can see Treasury yield ticking up already. Actually spiking up is a better name for it. Cash is getting more expensive regardless of the FED Funds Rate. FED up, that's what the market is.

Let's enter the financial subfield of brokerage now. I have no doubt that the ETFC platform is great, many people here attest to that. I have no idea but will take their word for it. Good for ETFC. The problem is that ETFC is a bank disguised as a broker. Cindy has been busy combing through the numbers, which in my opinion is useless, since we won't know what we won't know, Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns so to speak. Trust should be regained in that matter, which will take time, which is running out, as stated above.
Also the longterm profitability of ETFC (per share) must somehow be factored in, and here it gets interesting. Some of you may have heart of VanderMoolen (MOO), a Dutch brokerage. They used to have American operations, since wound down / sold. Search for the stockchart of this puppy, it is almost a carbon-copy of ETFC. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. MOO currently stands at EUR 3,27, with a 12 month high/low of 4,29/1,75. All-time high was over €40 7 years ago. My point here is that the 2-5 rule, with a slight undershoot, is alive and kickin'.
This week S&P upgraded ETFC. I won't go into S&P, apart from saying that whatever they think doesn't interest me in the least, just to be clear on that one. Cindy probably climaxed on that call, but the stock didn't, being exactly in the beta observation, 111m shorts included. It is my belief that almost all shorts above $5 have hedged by now, so I do not see a short squeeze above that level.

I am winding down Your Honor. If you ask me gun to head where ETFC will be in 2 year's time: $3,50. We will see $2 ánd $5. Since I have no idea which one will come first I will sideline until one of these levels is breached and then, with defined risk, will take a contrary position. Pumpbaby Cindy, and friends, will fade over time, although in the meantime they are mighty irritating. The relentless pumping was what triggered me to respond in the first place. ETFC the company I wish all the best, no grudges here, have made some money with it, not much, but my position wasn't big to begin with. Any questions?
]]> Sat, 14 Jun 2008 06:46:12 -0400 Since what is happening here seems to be some sort of extrapolation on general sentiment I will make a serious effort to share my thoughts and observations with you all. Sit back and enjoy the ride.

First off though I want to state my position on ETFC, just so I won't be accused of being a pumper nor a basher. Currently I have no position in ETFC. When I said they will out-beta any index by 300-500% it should be clear that beta works either way. The $5-mark / 90% fail-break observation (and $2 for that matter) didn't get any feedback, which is a pity since it is one of the most overlooked yet reliable rules in the whole wide stock universe (valid even with optical plays such as reverse splitting).

Now for the real work, starting with the general state of affairs. In my opinion we haven't yet scrathed the surface of what will become a world of pain. The Dow is off by some 20%, peanuts, in EUR terms the Dow has been stuck, for 5 years running, around the 8k-10k mark. Currently it is at 8k (12307,35 * 0.65), and yes, as you perhaps had guessed already, I am European. That's what happens when the USD goes Zimbabwean. It is my belief that we're currently in the 2nd phase of the 1st wave (mortgage meldown). The 3rd and final phase will start shortly, with (Option) ARM reset. The second and third wave will come ashore this fall, they are durable-credit and non-durable credit, and these waves will be bigger, longer and have a much greater impact than the first wave, difficult to imagine as it is, because they will affect not just upside-down home-owners and financials, they will hit everybody. This is the real unwind, affecting people in mortgage-free houses too, and it will take at least a decade to work through it, possibly much more (just ask our harikiri friends how they are doing, some 20 years after the top). Cash will be king, which doesn't spell much good for stocks, and you can see Treasury yield ticking up already. Actually spiking up is a better name for it. Cash is getting more expensive regardless of the FED Funds Rate. FED up, that's what the market is.

Let's enter the financial subfield of brokerage now. I have no doubt that the ETFC platform is great, many people here attest to that. I have no idea but will take their word for it. Good for ETFC. The problem is that ETFC is a bank disguised as a broker. Cindy has been busy combing through the numbers, which in my opinion is useless, since we won't know what we won't know, Rumsfeld's unknown unknowns so to speak. Trust should be regained in that matter, which will take time, which is running out, as stated above.
Also the longterm profitability of ETFC (per share) must somehow be factored in, and here it gets interesting. Some of you may have heart of VanderMoolen (MOO), a Dutch brokerage. They used to have American operations, since wound down / sold. Search for the stockchart of this puppy, it is almost a carbon-copy of ETFC. History doesn't repeat itself, but it rhymes. MOO currently stands at EUR 3,27, with a 12 month high/low of 4,29/1,75. All-time high was over €40 7 years ago. My point here is that the 2-5 rule, with a slight undershoot, is alive and kickin'.
This week S&P upgraded ETFC. I won't go into S&P, apart from saying that whatever they think doesn't interest me in the least, just to be clear on that one. Cindy probably climaxed on that call, but the stock didn't, being exactly in the beta observation, 111m shorts included. It is my belief that almost all shorts above $5 have hedged by now, so I do not see a short squeeze above that level.

I am winding down Your Honor. If you ask me gun to head where ETFC will be in 2 year's time: $3,50. We will see $2 ánd $5. Since I have no idea which one will come first I will sideline until one of these levels is breached and then, with defined risk, will take a contrary position. Pumpbaby Cindy, and friends, will fade over time, although in the meantime they are mighty irritating. The relentless pumping was what triggered me to respond in the first place. ETFC the company I wish all the best, no grudges here, have made some money with it, not much, but my position wasn't big to begin with. Any questions?
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80821-e-trade-s-first-in-first-out-position-yes-111m-shorts-can-be-wrong?source=feed#comment-183212 183212
If you have big brown eyes and a happy disposition I will concur with your chicken call. As to ETFC, my view is that it will out-beta the index (any index) by 300-500%, just because it is listed, not because of intrinsic value, which I believe to be a non-starter in this environment. And this environment will not go away anytime soon.
In investing as in romance time will tell, in the meantime keep smiling!]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 09:11:43 -0400
If you have big brown eyes and a happy disposition I will concur with your chicken call. As to ETFC, my view is that it will out-beta the index (any index) by 300-500%, just because it is listed, not because of intrinsic value, which I believe to be a non-starter in this environment. And this environment will not go away anytime soon.
In investing as in romance time will tell, in the meantime keep smiling!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80821-e-trade-s-first-in-first-out-position-yes-111m-shorts-can-be-wrong?source=feed#comment-183174 183174 E*Trade may be great (no idea, but generallly good comments) but the share-price is composed of many factors, some of them micro (the company itself) and some of them macro. And by the way, what I said about 90% of stock falling through $5 never regaining that level is a valid observation, we can argue chicken/egg here as to why, but we won't.
Finally, I am trading this cracked fountain of hope, not investing in it, and no, I am not short in it and neither do I have puts or short calls.
And a final finally, not all 111m shorts are at $4 and there's also no way of knowing if they have hedged their position, so that number in itself is not very instructive. ]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 08:31:09 -0400 E*Trade may be great (no idea, but generallly good comments) but the share-price is composed of many factors, some of them micro (the company itself) and some of them macro. And by the way, what I said about 90% of stock falling through $5 never regaining that level is a valid observation, we can argue chicken/egg here as to why, but we won't.
Finally, I am trading this cracked fountain of hope, not investing in it, and no, I am not short in it and neither do I have puts or short calls.
And a final finally, not all 111m shorts are at $4 and there's also no way of knowing if they have hedged their position, so that number in itself is not very instructive. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80821-e-trade-s-first-in-first-out-position-yes-111m-shorts-can-be-wrong?source=feed#comment-183051 183051
You don't need to write yet another hysterical piece on your love-baby, no no, what you really need is a vacation, preferably somewhere with no internet access. Relax, have a Bud, get bronzed, let the hair hang loose, and enjoy life for a week or two. Clear up the mind and pamper the body. ETFC is going nowhere until some macro issues are dealt with and huge imbalances are worked out of the system. Will be over in a year or 10, so no use auto-mutilating your brain with each and every ETFC tick. I very much doubt ETFC will survive in the current form and even if they do that it will be profitable from $4 upwards, but hey what the heck do we care with the US financial and monetary system imploding all around us. From a statistical point of view: 90% of stocks that fall through $5 never regain that level. Basically the same thing applies to $2, so worry about that, but only after your (and our) vacation.
Hasta la vista, bon bini, surf's up and all that,
Your tourguide
Orca]]> Wed, 11 Jun 2008 02:56:54 -0400
You don't need to write yet another hysterical piece on your love-baby, no no, what you really need is a vacation, preferably somewhere with no internet access. Relax, have a Bud, get bronzed, let the hair hang loose, and enjoy life for a week or two. Clear up the mind and pamper the body. ETFC is going nowhere until some macro issues are dealt with and huge imbalances are worked out of the system. Will be over in a year or 10, so no use auto-mutilating your brain with each and every ETFC tick. I very much doubt ETFC will survive in the current form and even if they do that it will be profitable from $4 upwards, but hey what the heck do we care with the US financial and monetary system imploding all around us. From a statistical point of view: 90% of stocks that fall through $5 never regain that level. Basically the same thing applies to $2, so worry about that, but only after your (and our) vacation.
Hasta la vista, bon bini, surf's up and all that,
Your tourguide
Orca]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80563-bernanke-s-backfire-now-what?source=feed#comment-181948 181948 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 13:47:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80563-bernanke-s-backfire-now-what?source=feed#comment-181918 181918 Mon, 09 Jun 2008 12:55:08 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/80563-bernanke-s-backfire-now-what?source=feed#comment-181850 181850 Last week you saw it with Trichet calling Bernanke's / Paulsons bluff within 2 days. This morning your prez, oblivious of everything around him, also reiterated that moronic "strong $ policy" phrase.
G8 tried and failed too last month to verbally support the USD.
You are spot on regarding credibilty. After the subprime fiasco, the rating agencies, the monolines, LIBOR, the FED facilities, "strong $ policy" BS etc nobody listens any more, they want to s.e.e. something. That something is the patient taking the medicine, in the form of multiple rate hikes. The question is will it happen in a week, a month or a year. It will happen, no doubt about it, but seeing your "leadership" probably later than sooner. BS time is over.
]]> Mon, 09 Jun 2008 10:53:15 -0400 Last week you saw it with Trichet calling Bernanke's / Paulsons bluff within 2 days. This morning your prez, oblivious of everything around him, also reiterated that moronic "strong $ policy" phrase.
G8 tried and failed too last month to verbally support the USD.
You are spot on regarding credibilty. After the subprime fiasco, the rating agencies, the monolines, LIBOR, the FED facilities, "strong $ policy" BS etc nobody listens any more, they want to s.e.e. something. That something is the patient taking the medicine, in the form of multiple rate hikes. The question is will it happen in a week, a month or a year. It will happen, no doubt about it, but seeing your "leadership" probably later than sooner. BS time is over.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/80543-ecb-move-an-opportunity-to-trim-international-exposure?source=feed#comment-181213 181213 Something else, though related, remember the talk at $60-80 that the Iran-scare was worth at least $20 and that we could spike to $100? Well here we are at $140 and Iran is laughing their ass off. You can thank Bush for "protecting" the US interest in that regard.
The thing with both problems (USD, crude) is that finally you will be forced to do the right thing, but it will needlessly hurt much more then than now. Apparently your leaders don't seem to have any capacity for leading in the right direction, explaining their decisions and sticking to them. Paul Volcker is called for, that's who.
As a European who loves the USA I am completely sick of that spinelessness and wholeheartedly support the ECB, because I am convinced it will be the right decision for the long run. In the meantime we reach for the barfbucket the moment Paulson, Bernanke, Cheney or Bush come on stage. And no, this is not about Iraq, that's another story altogether, this is about cowardice under fire. Boy am I mad. Time now for a cool beer in the sun, tomorrow we have to be relaxed for trading.
]]> Sun, 08 Jun 2008 10:24:11 -0400 Something else, though related, remember the talk at $60-80 that the Iran-scare was worth at least $20 and that we could spike to $100? Well here we are at $140 and Iran is laughing their ass off. You can thank Bush for "protecting" the US interest in that regard.
The thing with both problems (USD, crude) is that finally you will be forced to do the right thing, but it will needlessly hurt much more then than now. Apparently your leaders don't seem to have any capacity for leading in the right direction, explaining their decisions and sticking to them. Paul Volcker is called for, that's who.
As a European who loves the USA I am completely sick of that spinelessness and wholeheartedly support the ECB, because I am convinced it will be the right decision for the long run. In the meantime we reach for the barfbucket the moment Paulson, Bernanke, Cheney or Bush come on stage. And no, this is not about Iraq, that's another story altogether, this is about cowardice under fire. Boy am I mad. Time now for a cool beer in the sun, tomorrow we have to be relaxed for trading.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/79451-the-case-for-aig-patience-required?source=feed#comment-176520 176520 Fri, 30 May 2008 05:43:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/77258-inflation-falls-for-fourth-straight-month?source=feed#comment-167471 167471 Wed, 14 May 2008 12:02:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76465-aig-from-blue-chip-to-mediocrity?source=feed#comment-165367 165367 Sat, 10 May 2008 05:37:26 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76557-aig-the-new-math?source=feed#comment-165364 165364 Sat, 10 May 2008 04:23:28 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75644-our-energy-efficient-economy-can-handle-112-oil?source=feed#comment-161902 161902 Mon, 05 May 2008 08:24:37 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/75464-buying-the-dollar-be-selective?source=feed#comment-161422 161422 Cheers,

Orca (Belgium)]]> Sun, 04 May 2008 09:47:22 -0400 Cheers,

Orca (Belgium)]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/74449-3-reasons-why-the-euro-may-fall-further?source=feed#comment-158149 158149 Mon, 28 Apr 2008 15:25:06 -0400