hollowman

Options Trader: Wednesday Outlook

When it comes to the analysts at the big banks am I the only one that thinks ...

"So You guys don't even how to properly price your own assets - i.e. your worthless CDOs, CLOs, ABCP, etc., and you're trying to predict the price of X????"

GS is looking like a bunch of idjits because they were calling for $150+ when oil was starting to break $140. JPM is looking like the clowns they are because they are still insisting that the USD will make a new low in Oct. And they all look like total morons because their business models have been exposed as total BS.

Sometimes I rather consult my cat, at least he has a much better track record.

Potash Sell-Off Overdone - Citi

KSu, I agree that a lot of what we've seen in ag names is due to the funds. In particular, they have been liquidating their holdings in ag names to cover their losses in energy.
However, I think that oil prices have far less downside risk, and it is well known that China will start next year with a huge deficit of fertilizer. This is very bullish, and will keep potash prices high for the foreseeable future.

Five Forces Driving the Euro Down

Peter, people like you are what we refer to as a 'jerk', on a respectable board, and another four letter word elsewhere.

You want the good news? Armageddon has been indefinitely postponed. Despite, the caterwauling of the gold bugs and uber-bears, the economy has done anything, but collapsed. In fact, you'd need to do one heck of a spin job to say this was anything, but a mild recession, so far. I'm far from an optimist, but I've lived through the 70's, and have relatives that lived through the dirty 30's, and this is a cake-walk compared to those eras.

So you have to settle for a 42" LCD instead of a plasma, and you have to trade you 2nd SUV in for a Ford Focus. Deal with it.

Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not

Wrong professor! Your 'good' speculation creates the hoarding that had dire consequences for almost half the population when rice prices doubled this year. Did even pick up a paper and read what the UN had to say? I really doubt it.

Moreover, your 'good' speculation wasn't caused by prudent saving of energy, we have the SPR for that. It was caused by the incessant pumping of the shills like GS, JPM, and the 'peak oil' dogs who just could wait to have their day. You're 'good' speculation doubled oil prices in a year, and just about took the world economy under its heel just so some a$$holes who run hedge funds could make their million dollar bonuses.

If you submitted this as a paper this would be my remarks to you;

Your paper looks like it was written at 3am in the morning after you were drinking. You could have put no more than 5 minutes of thought into your hypothesis, and even less into writing it. You're example of 'good' speculation is so contrived that it would take less than a nanosecond to rebut, and only slightly longer to come up with the counter of SPR. You have also not properly defined a 'negative' bubble, nor even shown any source to show that it is an excepted term.

In short, please don't waste my time with this useless drivel.

F-.

Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not

Just to clarify.

I was stating that I agree with your conclusion about the fact that conservation is very beneficial - although you need to start utilizing your own resources. I think the politics was totally unnecessary.

Two Types of Speculation: One Harmful, One Not

So scaring the bejeezus out of people with peak oil, whose definition seems to change with the wind, is good? However, finally having the US join the rest of the world and use it's own resources to solves its own energy needs is just to horrible to speak of? Get real!!

Strangely, despite your misguided premise, your conclusion is sound. If the US were to become as efficient as the Germans, it would cut its consumption by 4 mbpd! And the Germans are considered the energy hogs in Europe. If that sounds like a lot consider the fact that if every vehicle on the road was 1mpg more efficient that would save 350,000 bpd. Imagine what would happen if the big 3 (OK, sounds like such a joke now), hadn't found the fuel standards so hard? Not only would the US's energy needs be much less, they would probably be much better off.

As they say, Karma's a --- you get the point.

About That Silver Lining, Erin

My 'where to begin' is when do the 'pundits' finally realize that home is NOT an investment. Who cares if you are up, down, or sideways, as long as you bought it because it was a home, get it? A H-O-M-E, not a house.

'The Worst Is Over for Financials' - Really?

Perception is reality in the markets, and the markets still feel the worst in behind us. Up until April, AIG would have sent the market into a deep dive, and if oil would have made this a major melt-down. I think you could have easily seen this turn into a 4%+ down day with 90% down, and on extreme volume.

Today - decliners barely beat out advancers on the big board, and the indicies were off -.94 (Dow) to -.23% (Nasdaq) - oh, and the Rus 2K was green. As for the volume, let's just say I think people were out enjoy a day off from the looks of it.

I'm not saying things are hunky-dory, but I certainly wouldn't want to short this market.

Jim Rogers Wants You To Buy Dollars

Eagle-Chief, exactly! This guy is talking his book, just as Soros has. I can't think of two bozos I would love to see lose everything. Only, IIRC, Rogers was short the USD. I think he covered when he saw the rally, and moved long. Now he wants you to buy the dollar so he can turn around and short the sucker's-rally.

How Microsoft Could Kill Google on the Web

This is just one of the worst thought out ideas I've ever seen - were you smoking something funny?

Two important reasons this won't work

1) Advertisers go were the eyeballs are. The Superbowl demands a price of over $2.5mil for a 30 second ad, and they are always sold out. No matter how many advertisers sign up with MSN, you can't force a user to use their search engine.

2) You may entice small "Mom & Pop" companies to switch, but where is the incentive for a larger company? All this would do is allow a company to advertise in two places for the same price.

However, if the point is to lose money, this is certainly a great strategy.

Yahoo / MSFT Deal at $31 Now "Inevitable" - Piper Jaffray

Watching the recent theatrics from the MSFT YHOO deal just seems to illustrate why MSFT is one of the most powerful corps on earth, and why YHOO can't find their way with a roadmap.

Apple Slowdown, Macro Weakness - Morgan Keegan

My first reaction when I hear about ratings is "just how good is this analyst?" Is there actually a place I can see a rating of how well this guy has performed in the past?

Some analysts are good, but many (Toni Sacconaghi comes to mind in this case) seem to prove the adage that an economists job is to make psychics look good.

Will Microsoft Make Yahoo Pay for Its Obstinacy?

Yahoo execs must have really short memories, or be as dumb as a bag of hammers.

To begin with, MS did not get to the position it is in now by playing nice. They are the biggest kid in the school yard, and they aren't afraid to use that to their advantage.

Second, Yahoo's belief that they are worth $45 a share is just a total joke. If they are worth that much why did the market value them below $20? Moreover, why won't anyone else step forward in the white knight role?

It's a good thing I'm not a Yahoo shareholder so I can just sit back and laugh from the sidelines.

Credit Bust: Avoid Being the Little Guy

Deacon = Jack Van Impe??

It's Not the Fault of Hedge Fund Managers That They Make So Much Money

Silly me, I keep forgeting that it is NEVER Wall St fault - EVER!!!

It's all the pressure that they feel from the investors, and the biggest pressure is how to bilk them out of more of their money.

Poor Wall St guys.