hollowman's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/170274/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/91783-options-trader-wednesday-outlook?source=feed#comment-234815 234815
"So You guys don't even how to properly price your own assets - i.e. your worthless CDOs, CLOs, ABCP, etc., and you're trying to predict the price of X????"

GS is looking like a bunch of idjits because they were calling for $150+ when oil was starting to break $140. JPM is looking like the clowns they are because they are still insisting that the USD will make a new low in Oct. And they all look like total morons because their business models have been exposed as total BS.

Sometimes I rather consult my cat, at least he has a much better track record.]]> Wed, 20 Aug 2008 11:32:00 -0400
"So You guys don't even how to properly price your own assets - i.e. your worthless CDOs, CLOs, ABCP, etc., and you're trying to predict the price of X????"

GS is looking like a bunch of idjits because they were calling for $150+ when oil was starting to break $140. JPM is looking like the clowns they are because they are still insisting that the USD will make a new low in Oct. And they all look like total morons because their business models have been exposed as total BS.

Sometimes I rather consult my cat, at least he has a much better track record.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91513-potash-sell-off-overdone-citi?source=feed#comment-233700 233700 However, I think that oil prices have far less downside risk, and it is well known that China will start next year with a huge deficit of fertilizer. This is very bullish, and will keep potash prices high for the foreseeable future.]]> Tue, 19 Aug 2008 01:49:15 -0400 However, I think that oil prices have far less downside risk, and it is well known that China will start next year with a huge deficit of fertilizer. This is very bullish, and will keep potash prices high for the foreseeable future.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91009-five-forces-driving-the-euro-down?source=feed#comment-230825 230825
You want the good news? Armageddon has been indefinitely postponed. Despite, the caterwauling of the gold bugs and uber-bears, the economy has done anything, but collapsed. In fact, you'd need to do one heck of a spin job to say this was anything, but a mild recession, so far. I'm far from an optimist, but I've lived through the 70's, and have relatives that lived through the dirty 30's, and this is a cake-walk compared to those eras.

So you have to settle for a 42" LCD instead of a plasma, and you have to trade you 2nd SUV in for a Ford Focus. Deal with it.]]> Fri, 15 Aug 2008 01:08:38 -0400
You want the good news? Armageddon has been indefinitely postponed. Despite, the caterwauling of the gold bugs and uber-bears, the economy has done anything, but collapsed. In fact, you'd need to do one heck of a spin job to say this was anything, but a mild recession, so far. I'm far from an optimist, but I've lived through the 70's, and have relatives that lived through the dirty 30's, and this is a cake-walk compared to those eras.

So you have to settle for a 42" LCD instead of a plasma, and you have to trade you 2nd SUV in for a Ford Focus. Deal with it.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89243-two-types-of-speculation-one-harmful-one-not?source=feed#comment-223760 223760
Moreover, your 'good' speculation wasn't caused by prudent saving of energy, we have the SPR for that. It was caused by the incessant pumping of the shills like GS, JPM, and the 'peak oil' dogs who just could wait to have their day. You're 'good' speculation doubled oil prices in a year, and just about took the world economy under its heel just so some a$$holes who run hedge funds could make their million dollar bonuses.

If you submitted this as a paper this would be my remarks to you;

Your paper looks like it was written at 3am in the morning after you were drinking. You could have put no more than 5 minutes of thought into your hypothesis, and even less into writing it. You're example of 'good' speculation is so contrived that it would take less than a nanosecond to rebut, and only slightly longer to come up with the counter of SPR. You have also not properly defined a 'negative' bubble, nor even shown any source to show that it is an excepted term.

In short, please don't waste my time with this useless drivel.

F-.]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 07:04:22 -0400
Moreover, your 'good' speculation wasn't caused by prudent saving of energy, we have the SPR for that. It was caused by the incessant pumping of the shills like GS, JPM, and the 'peak oil' dogs who just could wait to have their day. You're 'good' speculation doubled oil prices in a year, and just about took the world economy under its heel just so some a$$holes who run hedge funds could make their million dollar bonuses.

If you submitted this as a paper this would be my remarks to you;

Your paper looks like it was written at 3am in the morning after you were drinking. You could have put no more than 5 minutes of thought into your hypothesis, and even less into writing it. You're example of 'good' speculation is so contrived that it would take less than a nanosecond to rebut, and only slightly longer to come up with the counter of SPR. You have also not properly defined a 'negative' bubble, nor even shown any source to show that it is an excepted term.

In short, please don't waste my time with this useless drivel.

F-.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89243-two-types-of-speculation-one-harmful-one-not?source=feed#comment-223660 223660
I was stating that I agree with your conclusion about the fact that conservation is very beneficial - although you need to start utilizing your own resources. I think the politics was totally unnecessary. ]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 23:15:04 -0400
I was stating that I agree with your conclusion about the fact that conservation is very beneficial - although you need to start utilizing your own resources. I think the politics was totally unnecessary. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89243-two-types-of-speculation-one-harmful-one-not?source=feed#comment-223658 223658
Strangely, despite your misguided premise, your conclusion is sound. If the US were to become as efficient as the Germans, it would cut its consumption by 4 mbpd! And the Germans are considered the energy hogs in Europe. If that sounds like a lot consider the fact that if every vehicle on the road was 1mpg more efficient that would save 350,000 bpd. Imagine what would happen if the big 3 (OK, sounds like such a joke now), hadn't found the fuel standards so hard? Not only would the US's energy needs be much less, they would probably be much better off.

As they say, Karma's a --- you get the point. ]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 23:09:34 -0400
Strangely, despite your misguided premise, your conclusion is sound. If the US were to become as efficient as the Germans, it would cut its consumption by 4 mbpd! And the Germans are considered the energy hogs in Europe. If that sounds like a lot consider the fact that if every vehicle on the road was 1mpg more efficient that would save 350,000 bpd. Imagine what would happen if the big 3 (OK, sounds like such a joke now), hadn't found the fuel standards so hard? Not only would the US's energy needs be much less, they would probably be much better off.

As they say, Karma's a --- you get the point. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87720-about-that-silver-lining-erin?source=feed#comment-217936 217936
]]> Tue, 29 Jul 2008 22:17:20 -0400
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76567-the-worst-is-over-for-financials-really?source=feed#comment-165225 165225
Today - decliners barely beat out advancers on the big board, and the indicies were off -.94 (Dow) to -.23% (Nasdaq) - oh, and the Rus 2K was green. As for the volume, let's just say I think people were out enjoy a day off from the looks of it.

I'm not saying things are hunky-dory, but I certainly wouldn't want to short this market.]]> Fri, 09 May 2008 20:19:28 -0400
Today - decliners barely beat out advancers on the big board, and the indicies were off -.94 (Dow) to -.23% (Nasdaq) - oh, and the Rus 2K was green. As for the volume, let's just say I think people were out enjoy a day off from the looks of it.

I'm not saying things are hunky-dory, but I certainly wouldn't want to short this market.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/76324-jim-rogers-wants-you-to-buy-dollars?source=feed#comment-164487 164487 Thu, 08 May 2008 19:29:49 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/76261-how-microsoft-could-kill-google-on-the-web?source=feed#comment-163959 163959
Two important reasons this won't work

1) Advertisers go were the eyeballs are. The Superbowl demands a price of over $2.5mil for a 30 second ad, and they are always sold out. No matter how many advertisers sign up with MSN, you can't force a user to use their search engine.

2) You may entice small "Mom & Pop" companies to switch, but where is the incentive for a larger company? All this would do is allow a company to advertise in two places for the same price.

However, if the point is to lose money, this is certainly a great strategy.

]]> Thu, 08 May 2008 05:26:20 -0400
Two important reasons this won't work

1) Advertisers go were the eyeballs are. The Superbowl demands a price of over $2.5mil for a 30 second ad, and they are always sold out. No matter how many advertisers sign up with MSN, you can't force a user to use their search engine.

2) You may entice small "Mom & Pop" companies to switch, but where is the incentive for a larger company? All this would do is allow a company to advertise in two places for the same price.

However, if the point is to lose money, this is certainly a great strategy.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71600-yahoo-msft-deal-at-31-now-inevitable-piper-jaffray?source=feed#comment-147214 147214 Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:55:00 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71601-apple-slowdown-macro-weakness-morgan-keegan?source=feed#comment-147211 147211
Some analysts are good, but many (Toni Sacconaghi comes to mind in this case) seem to prove the adage that an economists job is to make psychics look good.]]> Tue, 08 Apr 2008 16:52:26 -0400
Some analysts are good, but many (Toni Sacconaghi comes to mind in this case) seem to prove the adage that an economists job is to make psychics look good.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71257-will-microsoft-make-yahoo-pay-for-its-obstinacy?source=feed#comment-146135 146135
To begin with, MS did not get to the position it is in now by playing nice. They are the biggest kid in the school yard, and they aren't afraid to use that to their advantage.

Second, Yahoo's belief that they are worth $45 a share is just a total joke. If they are worth that much why did the market value them below $20? Moreover, why won't anyone else step forward in the white knight role?

It's a good thing I'm not a Yahoo shareholder so I can just sit back and laugh from the sidelines.]]> Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:35:11 -0400
To begin with, MS did not get to the position it is in now by playing nice. They are the biggest kid in the school yard, and they aren't afraid to use that to their advantage.

Second, Yahoo's belief that they are worth $45 a share is just a total joke. If they are worth that much why did the market value them below $20? Moreover, why won't anyone else step forward in the white knight role?

It's a good thing I'm not a Yahoo shareholder so I can just sit back and laugh from the sidelines.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71275-credit-bust-avoid-being-the-little-guy?source=feed#comment-146128 146128 Sun, 06 Apr 2008 21:17:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71245-it-s-not-the-fault-of-hedge-fund-managers-that-they-make-so-much-money?source=feed#comment-137005 137005
It's all the pressure that they feel from the investors, and the biggest pressure is how to bilk them out of more of their money.

Poor Wall St guys. ]]> Sat, 05 Apr 2008 14:00:08 -0400
It's all the pressure that they feel from the investors, and the biggest pressure is how to bilk them out of more of their money.

Poor Wall St guys. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71237-how-much-can-we-blame-the-uptick-rule?source=feed#comment-136789 136789
Seriously, the case against them has to do with bear raids and that is a bit overdone. As someone who is picks a stock that they are willing to stick with for years bear raids are

a) a little annoying if I'm already in the stock - but I can always add more

b) very beneficial if I'm waiting for a stock to come down a bit.

In the end, bear raids don't affect the long-term performance of good quality stock.]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 20:00:52 -0400
Seriously, the case against them has to do with bear raids and that is a bit overdone. As someone who is picks a stock that they are willing to stick with for years bear raids are

a) a little annoying if I'm already in the stock - but I can always add more

b) very beneficial if I'm waiting for a stock to come down a bit.

In the end, bear raids don't affect the long-term performance of good quality stock.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71225-clos-are-in-cdos-are-out?source=feed#comment-136728 136728 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 16:45:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/71193-global-p-e-ratios-how-the-u-s-stacks-up?source=feed#comment-136719 136719
I do agree that cheap money has been a big problem. In fact, it's not just cheap, it's free because the interest rate is below inflation. I only hope the Fed reverses course once the CC is under control.]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 16:33:02 -0400
I do agree that cheap money has been a big problem. In fact, it's not just cheap, it's free because the interest rate is below inflation. I only hope the Fed reverses course once the CC is under control.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71193-global-p-e-ratios-how-the-u-s-stacks-up?source=feed#comment-136661 136661
The comparisons are meaningless if you cannot compare them to the riskless investments, which are the government treasuries. ]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 14:27:11 -0400
The comparisons are meaningless if you cannot compare them to the riskless investments, which are the government treasuries. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71219-payrolls-drop-and-you-ain-t-seen-nothin-yet?source=feed#comment-136607 136607
I've been through everything from the 70's stagflation to the 'W' ressesion in the 80's. Even in the 90's I heard some screaming that we were headed back to the 30's.

And I totally agree on your points. Bush has faced several major tests and has failed each one miserably. Do people have to be reminded how long it took for him to realize that New Orleans was actually in trouble.]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 13:05:58 -0400
I've been through everything from the 70's stagflation to the 'W' ressesion in the 80's. Even in the 90's I heard some screaming that we were headed back to the 30's.

And I totally agree on your points. Bush has faced several major tests and has failed each one miserably. Do people have to be reminded how long it took for him to realize that New Orleans was actually in trouble.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71219-payrolls-drop-and-you-ain-t-seen-nothin-yet?source=feed#comment-136537 136537
Despite the CC, this seems to be progressing like a very normal recession. It may take a bit longer to come out of, but it isn't anything we haven't seen before. The only real question is how long will the down turn take? 2Qtrs? 4?

Seems you need to plan your trading strategy with this in mind.]]> Fri, 04 Apr 2008 11:12:57 -0400
Despite the CC, this seems to be progressing like a very normal recession. It may take a bit longer to come out of, but it isn't anything we haven't seen before. The only real question is how long will the down turn take? 2Qtrs? 4?

Seems you need to plan your trading strategy with this in mind.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/71110-brace-yourself-for-the-payrolls-number?source=feed#comment-136266 136266
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]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/70577-behind-the-curve-of-potash-prices?source=feed#comment-134381 134381 Mon, 31 Mar 2008 22:10:13 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/70428-goldman-total-leveraged-credit-losses-1-2-trillion?source=feed#comment-133797 133797
These guys really sucked when it came to predicting this little mess in the first place, so I'm not sure I have any faith in their correctness now.]]> Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:17:05 -0400
These guys really sucked when it came to predicting this little mess in the first place, so I'm not sure I have any faith in their correctness now.]]>