gabe borenstein's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/170333/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/173989-why-does-the-fed-feel-powerless-to-identify-bubbles-in-real-time?source=feed#comment-765221 765221 As for myself ,I had came to a conclusion that based on the past history ,when the FED is concerned about the "bubble" it will address the issue by derailing economy.
In 1999 I have met with portfolio manager for the Vatican ,Dr.Menginni .I have warned him about the market implosion ahead.
In September of 2007 ,in an interview with Brian Sullivan (Bloomberg TV) ,I had issued a warning about decompression ahead.
As of now ,I am impressed with the more dynamic approach that the FED has adopted ,although I do believe in the notion of too big to fail because of the psychological impact on the investment community.]]> Wed, 18 Nov 2009 09:19:54 -0500 As for myself ,I had came to a conclusion that based on the past history ,when the FED is concerned about the "bubble" it will address the issue by derailing economy.
In 1999 I have met with portfolio manager for the Vatican ,Dr.Menginni .I have warned him about the market implosion ahead.
In September of 2007 ,in an interview with Brian Sullivan (Bloomberg TV) ,I had issued a warning about decompression ahead.
As of now ,I am impressed with the more dynamic approach that the FED has adopted ,although I do believe in the notion of too big to fail because of the psychological impact on the investment community.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169073-policy-lessons-from-the-great-depression?source=feed#comment-738168 738168 In this cyclical stabilization/recovery ,the FED had finally adopted (it seems) a more cautious outlook on aggressive monetary policy.
Another lesson we all should have learned from the Great Depression is that the major decompression will implode the price of the gold. ]]> Sat, 31 Oct 2009 08:33:33 -0400 In this cyclical stabilization/recovery ,the FED had finally adopted (it seems) a more cautious outlook on aggressive monetary policy.
Another lesson we all should have learned from the Great Depression is that the major decompression will implode the price of the gold. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/170242-equities-update-averages-tumble-as-traders-fret-over-economy?source=feed#comment-737633 737633 The truth is simpler than most had allowed so far..
The key economic structural weakness had been addressed. The monetary and fiscal stimuli will contribute to a non inflationary cyclical growth for at least the next five years .The dollar weakness (intentionally allowed ) will enhance the economic expansion in the period ahead (J-curve). I believe that the dollar is actually building a base for a major rally which will enhance the relative value of the dollar denominated assets to foreign investors .In the meantime the weaker dollar provides an incentive to invest in the cheap U.S assets(foreign investors0>
The gurus who spurn the investments in the U.S markets ,encourage investments in emerging markets where the structural unemployment is at least double the U.S current unemployment rate and where(Emerging Markets) per capita income is negligible.
The U.S continues to be the global, relative value locomotive.
Major market rally lies ahead. Please note that the unemployment is a lagging indicator and is reflective of the U.S economic status quo of some 12 months ago.]]> Fri, 30 Oct 2009 17:22:08 -0400 The truth is simpler than most had allowed so far..
The key economic structural weakness had been addressed. The monetary and fiscal stimuli will contribute to a non inflationary cyclical growth for at least the next five years .The dollar weakness (intentionally allowed ) will enhance the economic expansion in the period ahead (J-curve). I believe that the dollar is actually building a base for a major rally which will enhance the relative value of the dollar denominated assets to foreign investors .In the meantime the weaker dollar provides an incentive to invest in the cheap U.S assets(foreign investors0>
The gurus who spurn the investments in the U.S markets ,encourage investments in emerging markets where the structural unemployment is at least double the U.S current unemployment rate and where(Emerging Markets) per capita income is negligible.
The U.S continues to be the global, relative value locomotive.
Major market rally lies ahead. Please note that the unemployment is a lagging indicator and is reflective of the U.S economic status quo of some 12 months ago.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/169047-grantham-on-the-markets-860-is-fair-value-for-s-p?source=feed#comment-733167 733167 In March of 2007 consensus was for a bearish correction.
The market rallied .
Now we are told that the market is over priced by the experts who have missed some key market adjustments
There is no way to quantify the relative value of the market at this stage of the business cycle.
The stock market is a leading economic indicator and as such it reflects an above average expansion in the period ahead.
As such barometer it confirms what is obvious -the catalytic measures in place will create above average business conditions.
All of the bearish nonsense about the U.S economy we have heard long enough.
For myself I can say the following : I was bearish early enough and I certainly was bullish in March.
My opinions were reflected in various interviews with the Bloomberg reporters.]]> Tue, 27 Oct 2009 20:02:41 -0400 In March of 2007 consensus was for a bearish correction.
The market rallied .
Now we are told that the market is over priced by the experts who have missed some key market adjustments
There is no way to quantify the relative value of the market at this stage of the business cycle.
The stock market is a leading economic indicator and as such it reflects an above average expansion in the period ahead.
As such barometer it confirms what is obvious -the catalytic measures in place will create above average business conditions.
All of the bearish nonsense about the U.S economy we have heard long enough.
For myself I can say the following : I was bearish early enough and I certainly was bullish in March.
My opinions were reflected in various interviews with the Bloomberg reporters.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/168309-equities-update-after-2-down-days-a-rally?source=feed#comment-726147 726147 For all of the sophistication , most participants are forgetting that the stock market is a leading economic indicator not a knee jerk reaction to individual data.
The economic momentum will accelerate into 2010 ,the market rally will intensify .
To surprise of most,the dollar will rally sharply -a reflection of a dramatic shift in the fundamentals .]]> Thu, 22 Oct 2009 20:11:23 -0400 For all of the sophistication , most participants are forgetting that the stock market is a leading economic indicator not a knee jerk reaction to individual data.
The economic momentum will accelerate into 2010 ,the market rally will intensify .
To surprise of most,the dollar will rally sharply -a reflection of a dramatic shift in the fundamentals .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166443-robert-prechter-s-conquer-the-crash-a-forecast-that-s-still-coming-true?source=feed#comment-718762 718762 At this point in time to imply possibility of another crash is a reflection of an economic ignorance as that implosion would lead to a global economic/financial anarchy that would make Armageddon look like Nirvana.
Governments and the Central Bank finally comprehend the risks and have deflected them.
Fannie and Freddie have been rescued by the U.S government finally confirming that the implicit guarantee of the agencies in fact is direct and explicit guarantee.
To imply that the U.S will now allow these agencies to fail ,is to argue that the U.S will fail and cease to exist as a viable economic /financial system.
For all of the nonsense being disseminated again,the U.S economy will continue to stabilize and expand without the risk of inflation.
We will see the stock market at the record levels in the period ahead .GDP will attain 5%(non inflationary) growth by the second half of 2010.]]> Sat, 17 Oct 2009 16:05:50 -0400 At this point in time to imply possibility of another crash is a reflection of an economic ignorance as that implosion would lead to a global economic/financial anarchy that would make Armageddon look like Nirvana.
Governments and the Central Bank finally comprehend the risks and have deflected them.
Fannie and Freddie have been rescued by the U.S government finally confirming that the implicit guarantee of the agencies in fact is direct and explicit guarantee.
To imply that the U.S will now allow these agencies to fail ,is to argue that the U.S will fail and cease to exist as a viable economic /financial system.
For all of the nonsense being disseminated again,the U.S economy will continue to stabilize and expand without the risk of inflation.
We will see the stock market at the record levels in the period ahead .GDP will attain 5%(non inflationary) growth by the second half of 2010.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166851-regarding-osinski-toxic-assets-and-felix-salmon?source=feed#comment-717253 717253 If investor believes in the economic recovery and a major economic/market rebound ,than "toxicity" of the toxic assets is less of an issue.The complexity of the product is just a garbage that was utilized to induce investors to buy these assets.
I still remember the bearish stock market /economic prognosis by one of the names mentioned. ]]> Fri, 16 Oct 2009 05:31:38 -0400 If investor believes in the economic recovery and a major economic/market rebound ,than "toxicity" of the toxic assets is less of an issue.The complexity of the product is just a garbage that was utilized to induce investors to buy these assets.
I still remember the bearish stock market /economic prognosis by one of the names mentioned. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/166559-dow-and-then-1999-vs-2009?source=feed#comment-715561 715561 The price of gold is a reflection of the medieval perceptions by some of the market gurus who will be proven wrong in the period ahead. ]]> Wed, 14 Oct 2009 18:27:31 -0400 The price of gold is a reflection of the medieval perceptions by some of the market gurus who will be proven wrong in the period ahead. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/165459-crude-oil-and-gasoline-prices-like-dj-vu-all-over-again?source=feed#comment-713187 713187 Mon, 12 Oct 2009 17:56:51 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/164458-hawkishness-prevails-in-government-policy?source=feed#comment-704621 704621 The Fed policy which had again focused on inflation(wrongfully so),driving the FF to 5.5% by the August of 2007 had led me to concluded that economic Armageddon lies ahead.
When 2006 data had revealed that more than 20% of the new homes sold were financed by the subprime mortgages,there was no doubt in my mind that a major economic decompression was inevitable in the period ahead I had reiterated that conclusion during the Brian Sullivan interview September18,2007(Bloom... TV).
As the panic spread through the U.S economy I thought that what is about to happen to U.S ,would make Great Depression look like an economic Nirvana.
For the first time in my professional , life the FED surprised me as it unleashed massive monetary easing in coordination with the Treasury and the Congress(fiscal stimulus).
I knew then ,that the unprecedented economic Armageddon was averted . I have expressed that opinion in March of 2009 in another Bloomberg interview.
There is no doubt in my mind that mislead focus on inflation ,which lead to historically relevant spike in rates ,was a major catalyst for 2008 decompression.
Misled convictions had forced Lehman liquidation only to geometrically increase investors fear (globally). Rest is a history.
TARP ,TARF and aggressive easing had averted unquantifiable global disaster..
Further liquidity injection into key (needy) economic sectors with above in place ,were the necessary catalytic force necessary to achieve the current status quo.
In 2008 the consumers liquidity and assets (globally ) were decimated.
This reality will neutralize the excessive demand pull forces in the current cyclical recovery that in the previous cycles had lead to significant inflation.
The topic of reducing liquidity should be eliminated from the FED's agenda for now .Yes, there is too big to fail(psychology)
With the current status quo in place (both fiscal and the monetary),the U.S economy will experience the longest non -inflationary cyclical recovery recorded to date.]]> Tue, 06 Oct 2009 01:50:44 -0400 The Fed policy which had again focused on inflation(wrongfully so),driving the FF to 5.5% by the August of 2007 had led me to concluded that economic Armageddon lies ahead.
When 2006 data had revealed that more than 20% of the new homes sold were financed by the subprime mortgages,there was no doubt in my mind that a major economic decompression was inevitable in the period ahead I had reiterated that conclusion during the Brian Sullivan interview September18,2007(Bloom... TV).
As the panic spread through the U.S economy I thought that what is about to happen to U.S ,would make Great Depression look like an economic Nirvana.
For the first time in my professional , life the FED surprised me as it unleashed massive monetary easing in coordination with the Treasury and the Congress(fiscal stimulus).
I knew then ,that the unprecedented economic Armageddon was averted . I have expressed that opinion in March of 2009 in another Bloomberg interview.
There is no doubt in my mind that mislead focus on inflation ,which lead to historically relevant spike in rates ,was a major catalyst for 2008 decompression.
Misled convictions had forced Lehman liquidation only to geometrically increase investors fear (globally). Rest is a history.
TARP ,TARF and aggressive easing had averted unquantifiable global disaster..
Further liquidity injection into key (needy) economic sectors with above in place ,were the necessary catalytic force necessary to achieve the current status quo.
In 2008 the consumers liquidity and assets (globally ) were decimated.
This reality will neutralize the excessive demand pull forces in the current cyclical recovery that in the previous cycles had lead to significant inflation.
The topic of reducing liquidity should be eliminated from the FED's agenda for now .Yes, there is too big to fail(psychology)
With the current status quo in place (both fiscal and the monetary),the U.S economy will experience the longest non -inflationary cyclical recovery recorded to date.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/164753-the-market-finally-questions-justifiability-of-high-stock-prices?source=feed#comment-703563 703563 The correction in the past two weeks is a constructive phenomenon and reflection of a market consolidation.
Recent data was misinterpreted but not negative.
True ,the unemployment continues ti rise but it is a lagging indicator reflective of the economic past.
Auto sales have declined but not as severly as the inititial expectations reflected by the auto industry in August.
Under the pressure from some who continue to focus on gold and commodities in general, preaching inflation;the Congress and the FED reflected much too early about neutralizing some of the stimulus- a mistake.
Then again the timing of that action was not specified.
On the other hand the fiscal and the monetary policies in place will continue to assist economic expansion.
Decimation of savings and decline in the asset values in 2008 ,eliminates the risks of excess demand(in this cyclical recovery) which normally would lead to inflationary pressures.
Only in March of this year some form of an economic implosion was a consensus.
We came a long way .Unprecedented cyclical ,non inflationary expansion will continue.
What happened to all the bears at the end of 2007 when the real risks had emerged? .I had issued several warnings then.
Another decompression ? a wishful death wish that will not happen .]]> Mon, 05 Oct 2009 09:43:29 -0400 The correction in the past two weeks is a constructive phenomenon and reflection of a market consolidation.
Recent data was misinterpreted but not negative.
True ,the unemployment continues ti rise but it is a lagging indicator reflective of the economic past.
Auto sales have declined but not as severly as the inititial expectations reflected by the auto industry in August.
Under the pressure from some who continue to focus on gold and commodities in general, preaching inflation;the Congress and the FED reflected much too early about neutralizing some of the stimulus- a mistake.
Then again the timing of that action was not specified.
On the other hand the fiscal and the monetary policies in place will continue to assist economic expansion.
Decimation of savings and decline in the asset values in 2008 ,eliminates the risks of excess demand(in this cyclical recovery) which normally would lead to inflationary pressures.
Only in March of this year some form of an economic implosion was a consensus.
We came a long way .Unprecedented cyclical ,non inflationary expansion will continue.
What happened to all the bears at the end of 2007 when the real risks had emerged? .I had issued several warnings then.
Another decompression ? a wishful death wish that will not happen .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/163063-today-in-commodities-inflation-or-deflation?source=feed#comment-688727 688727 The global implosion of 2008 has decimated global and consumer liquidity . Global focus at every level will and should be to restore this catalytic component of stability(liquidity).
In the U.S carefully applied "jolts" both monetary and fiscal will contribute to impressive and non inflationary economic expansion.
Gold?- is reflective of a global leveraged speculation based on the old notions.Other commodity prices will not go very far.
Inflation is not in the cards in the current cycle.]]> Thu, 24 Sep 2009 08:19:17 -0400 The global implosion of 2008 has decimated global and consumer liquidity . Global focus at every level will and should be to restore this catalytic component of stability(liquidity).
In the U.S carefully applied "jolts" both monetary and fiscal will contribute to impressive and non inflationary economic expansion.
Gold?- is reflective of a global leveraged speculation based on the old notions.Other commodity prices will not go very far.
Inflation is not in the cards in the current cycle.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/160774-base-metal-companies-gold-exposure?source=feed#comment-672703 672703 It sounds to me as if these opinions are reflective of existing major positions and are not reflective of the fundamentals .
The injected liquidity had stabilized key economic sectors including the financial sectors .
At this time it appears that the "middle"class America is the primary beneficiary of various "economic stability" programs.
It should be noted that this working class had sustained a record liquidity/assets decimation.
As the economic momentum accelerates in the period ahead contributing to a dynamic employment expansion by 2010, the Americans will be spending predominantly on the necessities and will be attempting to restore a degree of liquidity.
The global slack on the supply side is almost at the record.
The potential for inflation as indicated by the gold prices,is not a reality..
The economic notions will have to be updated in this particular economic cycle .]]> Fri, 11 Sep 2009 16:40:39 -0400 It sounds to me as if these opinions are reflective of existing major positions and are not reflective of the fundamentals .
The injected liquidity had stabilized key economic sectors including the financial sectors .
At this time it appears that the "middle"class America is the primary beneficiary of various "economic stability" programs.
It should be noted that this working class had sustained a record liquidity/assets decimation.
As the economic momentum accelerates in the period ahead contributing to a dynamic employment expansion by 2010, the Americans will be spending predominantly on the necessities and will be attempting to restore a degree of liquidity.
The global slack on the supply side is almost at the record.
The potential for inflation as indicated by the gold prices,is not a reality..
The economic notions will have to be updated in this particular economic cycle .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158895-speculative-trading-indicates-rally-losing-steam?source=feed#comment-652709 652709 This major rally appears to have been missed by most of the market gurus.
I have reiterated my bullish convictions quite frequently in various interviews with the Bloomberg's reporters.
One thing for sure ,the current rally is difficult to classify as speculative in nature .The rally may be a logical response to the
the fundamentals which point to above average ,non inflationary expansion in the period ahead and certainly negate the original assumptions of the economic implosion.
Finally , financials have rallied ? Why not .
The provided liquidity via fiscal and monetary policies has stabilized the financial sector that includes AIG ,FRE ,FNM and others.
Until the debacle of 2008 (which I have correctly predicted as early as June of 2005 in an interview with Mark Gilbert),the U.S guarantee of the agencies was implicit only.
I think after giving an access to required liquidity to the FRE and FNM ,that guarantee appears to be no longer implicit perhaps adding relative value to the U.S agencies' equities and bonds.
The rally in the AIG ?Not a big deal so far as allowing for the reverse split ,the stock trades at 2.50 dollars.
I would argue that the current rally is a function of a massive ,speculative short covering .
The real rally lies in the period ahead when the impact of the implemented measures becomes explicitly clear.]]> Sat, 29 Aug 2009 18:12:19 -0400 This major rally appears to have been missed by most of the market gurus.
I have reiterated my bullish convictions quite frequently in various interviews with the Bloomberg's reporters.
One thing for sure ,the current rally is difficult to classify as speculative in nature .The rally may be a logical response to the
the fundamentals which point to above average ,non inflationary expansion in the period ahead and certainly negate the original assumptions of the economic implosion.
Finally , financials have rallied ? Why not .
The provided liquidity via fiscal and monetary policies has stabilized the financial sector that includes AIG ,FRE ,FNM and others.
Until the debacle of 2008 (which I have correctly predicted as early as June of 2005 in an interview with Mark Gilbert),the U.S guarantee of the agencies was implicit only.
I think after giving an access to required liquidity to the FRE and FNM ,that guarantee appears to be no longer implicit perhaps adding relative value to the U.S agencies' equities and bonds.
The rally in the AIG ?Not a big deal so far as allowing for the reverse split ,the stock trades at 2.50 dollars.
I would argue that the current rally is a function of a massive ,speculative short covering .
The real rally lies in the period ahead when the impact of the implemented measures becomes explicitly clear.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/158085-preview-from-europe-mid-day-sell-off?source=feed#comment-646536 646536 The structural vulnerability in the key sectors has been addressed.
The fiscal and the monetary policies are aggressive and will lead to a GDP growth of 4% plus in the 4th qtr. I expect GDP expansion in 2010 to exceed 4%.
I expect the rebound to be non inflationary as it is fueled by carefully balanced monetary and fiscal policies.
Demand pull (inflationary catalyst ) is not an issue in this cyclical expansion ,something that most investors had failed to recognize.
A 100% margin on the Comex listed futures ,such as gold may bring some sense of reality into a massive speculation based on the obsolete theories .
In the meantime the stock market rally will continue as the market is undervalued and behind the curve.
Only several months ago ,Depression was a consensus.
In the meantime we are heading for a rebound of unprecedented durability.
Unemployment will decine sharply by the end of the 4th qtr.
It will decline to 3%by mid 2010.
The projected deficits will evaporate as the tax revenue increases geometrically and the U.S Treasury(Government) realizes record profits on the liquidity investments(injections).
]]> Tue, 25 Aug 2009 22:42:21 -0400 The structural vulnerability in the key sectors has been addressed.
The fiscal and the monetary policies are aggressive and will lead to a GDP growth of 4% plus in the 4th qtr. I expect GDP expansion in 2010 to exceed 4%.
I expect the rebound to be non inflationary as it is fueled by carefully balanced monetary and fiscal policies.
Demand pull (inflationary catalyst ) is not an issue in this cyclical expansion ,something that most investors had failed to recognize.
A 100% margin on the Comex listed futures ,such as gold may bring some sense of reality into a massive speculation based on the obsolete theories .
In the meantime the stock market rally will continue as the market is undervalued and behind the curve.
Only several months ago ,Depression was a consensus.
In the meantime we are heading for a rebound of unprecedented durability.
Unemployment will decine sharply by the end of the 4th qtr.
It will decline to 3%by mid 2010.
The projected deficits will evaporate as the tax revenue increases geometrically and the U.S Treasury(Government) realizes record profits on the liquidity investments(injections).
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/157385-prime-mortgages-are-also-going-sour?source=feed#comment-639159 639159 What does it mean for recovery? not really much.
Since unemployment is a lagging indicator,it is therefore quite clear that the initial stages of the economic recovery will have a marginal impact on the employment .
Until employment picture improves(shortly) ,mortgage issues will exist.
As the expansion gathers momentum the unemployment will decline geometrically .
We will see a noticeable improvement in the figures by the mid of the fourth qtr.
In the meantime ,carefully injected measured liquidity will continue to enhance economic momentum.
The fourth qtr growth will come in at 4.5%(GDP).
Inflation is not an issue as thisexpansion willnot be driven by demand pull forces.
Let's sit back and enjoy the stock market rally.
Periodically ,we will have to deal with market paranoia(volatility) driven by the gurus of the past who had failed to predict this rally.
Mortgage delinquencies ? they are about to decline]]> Thu, 20 Aug 2009 23:00:59 -0400 What does it mean for recovery? not really much.
Since unemployment is a lagging indicator,it is therefore quite clear that the initial stages of the economic recovery will have a marginal impact on the employment .
Until employment picture improves(shortly) ,mortgage issues will exist.
As the expansion gathers momentum the unemployment will decline geometrically .
We will see a noticeable improvement in the figures by the mid of the fourth qtr.
In the meantime ,carefully injected measured liquidity will continue to enhance economic momentum.
The fourth qtr growth will come in at 4.5%(GDP).
Inflation is not an issue as thisexpansion willnot be driven by demand pull forces.
Let's sit back and enjoy the stock market rally.
Periodically ,we will have to deal with market paranoia(volatility) driven by the gurus of the past who had failed to predict this rally.
Mortgage delinquencies ? they are about to decline]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156607-closing-update-for-monday-august-17-global-sell-off-visits-u-s?source=feed#comment-634149 634149 Psychology is one thing ,but reality is another.
Both U.S administrations had provided a measured liquidity injection into the key economic sectors and succeeded in stabilizing economy.It is the fiscal spending and the monetary policy that is and will be driving the U.S economic expansion not demand pull (inflationary).
Allowing for the multiplier ,the injected liquidity is almost equivalent to the U.S GDP .It is an insurance against the economic failure and a catalyst for unprecedented non inflationary expansion in the period ahead .
The fourth qtr of 2009 should attain 4.5 % GDP growth.
This will assure above average expansion in 2010 and the decline in unemployment to 3.8% .
The current debacle has allowed corporate America to be come mean ,lean competitive machine.
Without the American economic expansion ,Emerging Market economies and Europe and Asia will fail.
To date ,the deflection of the issues that exist outside the U.S economy has allowed the other markets to keep up with the U.S market gains .
This irrational focus on the U.S ,has allowed the global speculators to keep the dollar under the pressure.
I am convinced that as the global community begins to comprehend the fundamental non- inflationary forces that will maintain economic momentum ,the dollar will gain substantially.
The U.S stock market is not ahead of the curve but behind it.
Only months ago ,Depression was consensus,instead we are heading for unprecedented economic expansion.]]> Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:29:36 -0400 Psychology is one thing ,but reality is another.
Both U.S administrations had provided a measured liquidity injection into the key economic sectors and succeeded in stabilizing economy.It is the fiscal spending and the monetary policy that is and will be driving the U.S economic expansion not demand pull (inflationary).
Allowing for the multiplier ,the injected liquidity is almost equivalent to the U.S GDP .It is an insurance against the economic failure and a catalyst for unprecedented non inflationary expansion in the period ahead .
The fourth qtr of 2009 should attain 4.5 % GDP growth.
This will assure above average expansion in 2010 and the decline in unemployment to 3.8% .
The current debacle has allowed corporate America to be come mean ,lean competitive machine.
Without the American economic expansion ,Emerging Market economies and Europe and Asia will fail.
To date ,the deflection of the issues that exist outside the U.S economy has allowed the other markets to keep up with the U.S market gains .
This irrational focus on the U.S ,has allowed the global speculators to keep the dollar under the pressure.
I am convinced that as the global community begins to comprehend the fundamental non- inflationary forces that will maintain economic momentum ,the dollar will gain substantially.
The U.S stock market is not ahead of the curve but behind it.
Only months ago ,Depression was consensus,instead we are heading for unprecedented economic expansion.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/156607-closing-update-for-monday-august-17-global-sell-off-visits-u-s?source=feed#comment-634135 634135 Mon, 17 Aug 2009 23:04:43 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/149101-thursday-outlook-commodities-global-markets?source=feed#comment-598904 598904 It suffices to say that the stimuli in place are impressive .They will trigger a more visible rebound shortly .
An average investor needs to understand that it had taken years to create the current economic turbulance (I have discussed the current risks as early as June 3,2005 in an interview with Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg)-another three months or so of waiting for the recovery is insignificant at this point in time.
Major,noninflationary recovery is on the way .
The stock market indices will attain unprecedented highs.
The increase in the tax revenue due to the economic boom on the way ,will reduce projected deficit to acceptable level.
Major economic surprise lies ahead.
...]]> Wed, 22 Jul 2009 22:57:29 -0400 It suffices to say that the stimuli in place are impressive .They will trigger a more visible rebound shortly .
An average investor needs to understand that it had taken years to create the current economic turbulance (I have discussed the current risks as early as June 3,2005 in an interview with Mark Gilbert (Bloomberg)-another three months or so of waiting for the recovery is insignificant at this point in time.
Major,noninflationary recovery is on the way .
The stock market indices will attain unprecedented highs.
The increase in the tax revenue due to the economic boom on the way ,will reduce projected deficit to acceptable level.
Major economic surprise lies ahead.
...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/144622-new-banks-no-better-than-old-banks?source=feed#comment-559310 559310 This author wrote so much negative nonsense in the past that the article above should be no surprise.
U.S economy and the banking system will emerge as the most competitive economic and financial forces globally-period.]]> Tue, 23 Jun 2009 14:56:45 -0400 This author wrote so much negative nonsense in the past that the article above should be no surprise.
U.S economy and the banking system will emerge as the most competitive economic and financial forces globally-period.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/141170-why-did-bernanke-say-what-he-said?source=feed#comment-530532 530532 Wed, 03 Jun 2009 15:35:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/139590-bernanke-s-economic-predictions-and-unpredictability-of-the-future?source=feed#comment-517792 517792 Tue, 26 May 2009 09:56:25 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/137724-bernanke-s-first-bubble?source=feed#comment-503891 503891 Thu, 14 May 2009 13:04:46 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134505-expect-the-treasury-bubble-to-continue-to-inflate?source=feed#comment-485478 485478 Fri, 01 May 2009 10:26:14 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/134507-the-fed-s-quant-easing-gameplan?source=feed#comment-485388 485388 The FED came from behind the curve and now effectively they are ahead of the curve and very effective.

]]> Fri, 01 May 2009 09:44:49 -0400 The FED came from behind the curve and now effectively they are ahead of the curve and very effective.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/134047-fomc-notes-on-the-fed-minutes?source=feed#comment-483165 483165 U.S) is on the way.
]]> Wed, 29 Apr 2009 16:57:21 -0400 U.S) is on the way.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/132658-fed-policy-an-eye-to-the-future?source=feed#comment-474285 474285 Thu, 23 Apr 2009 11:54:42 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/21465?source=feed#comment-456399 456399 The measures in place are working ,function of the monetary and the fiscal lags.
All of the key issues have been or will be addressed .
The financial available resources are a guarantee that the U. S economy has stabilized and is on the way to a major rebound .
The corporate America will emerge from this turmoil as a mean ,lean economic machine -ie FORD .
The 4th quarter GDP will expand at 4% -5% .]]> Wed, 08 Apr 2009 12:32:36 -0400 The measures in place are working ,function of the monetary and the fiscal lags.
All of the key issues have been or will be addressed .
The financial available resources are a guarantee that the U. S economy has stabilized and is on the way to a major rebound .
The corporate America will emerge from this turmoil as a mean ,lean economic machine -ie FORD .
The 4th quarter GDP will expand at 4% -5% .]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/128049-in-this-spoon-fed-rally-never-underestimate-the-herd?source=feed#comment-441154 441154 The stock market is consolidating for a major rally.
The stimulus in place comprised of various programs eminating from the FED ,the Treasury and both administrations totals in excess of 2.5 trillion dollars .Allow for the multiplier effect(x7) and the stimulus exceeds 17 trillion dollars and exceeds the U.S GDP(14 trillion dollars).This is a broad based stimulus which addresses all of the weak structural links and issues.We do need to allow for the fiscal and the moneatry lags.
Gold? the price is reflective of the global psychosis .No serious economist/investor really believes that gold will is a flight to quality asset-it may have been in the middle ages .I do expect gold to implode to $250.00 per oz,in the period ahead as the global investors will seek liquidity by selling gold.
One thing for sure the economy will have a mega rebound as will the stock market .We are heading for unprecedented cyclical stock market rally that will last at least untill 2011.]]> Thu, 26 Mar 2009 12:21:51 -0400 The stock market is consolidating for a major rally.
The stimulus in place comprised of various programs eminating from the FED ,the Treasury and both administrations totals in excess of 2.5 trillion dollars .Allow for the multiplier effect(x7) and the stimulus exceeds 17 trillion dollars and exceeds the U.S GDP(14 trillion dollars).This is a broad based stimulus which addresses all of the weak structural links and issues.We do need to allow for the fiscal and the moneatry lags.
Gold? the price is reflective of the global psychosis .No serious economist/investor really believes that gold will is a flight to quality asset-it may have been in the middle ages .I do expect gold to implode to $250.00 per oz,in the period ahead as the global investors will seek liquidity by selling gold.
One thing for sure the economy will have a mega rebound as will the stock market .We are heading for unprecedented cyclical stock market rally that will last at least untill 2011.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/127832-ben-bernanke-s-dismal-prediction-record?source=feed#comment-439800 439800 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 12:59:54 -0400