gabe borenstein

Crude Oil and Gasoline Prices: Like Déjà Vu All Over Again

Last year at this time Global economies were heading for a major decompression.It was logical to assume that the final demand for crude will collapse and it did .This time around U.S economy is heading for a major but noninflationary expansion.The oil prices will likely have some marginal propensity to move down but that is because oil speculators who have contributed to the financial/economic disarray by forcing the crude prices above $140 per barrel,have learned their lesson. Given the current real relative slack in demand,it is difficult to see the crude moving up more than $ 10 dollars per barrel.Relative stability is likely the scenario irrespective of the economic accelerating economic momentum ahead.

Oil Won't Stay Down for Long

As the Congress delays the credit to the auto industry,the economy has not quite stabilized with most expert maintaining that we are heading for a prolong recession.If that were the case than the crude would be heading for the $25-$30 per barrel level.
In fact China just announced data on oil purchase -it virtually had collapased.
Conclusion,there still could be a significant downside to the oil prices

Energy Stocks Are Too Cheap to Ignore - Barron's

Oil stocks are done with.By now all of the investment community comprehends that the oil spike was not driven by the geometric explosion in the final demand but rather by a massive bankrupt strategy of long oil short financials .
The unwinding of these positions is not over ande will bankrupt many yet.
The windmill,the nuclear and hydroelectric energy play ,has been mostly exhausted as well.
Even the grain prices had a spike as a result of conversion to ethanol(corn).
To me one very promising source that could allieviate shortage of oil, is the Canadian oil sands.
However ,this sector appears to have been totally ignored.Time will tell.
Many experts claim that it is not the oil shortage that is the problem ,but rather inability of most refineries to "crack"the heavy crude,as the heavy crude is readily available.
I could not help but notice one Canadian company that is working on the oil sand conversion to oil and conversion of the heavy crude to light crude .In addition the company is looking for oil in China and produces small amount of crude.
That type of company (energy) could make a sense but it will not likely make a great move untill it is discovered by some hedge fund By then it is too late.