gabe borenstein

The Cyber Monday Meltdown

Recession,Depression ,all of these scenarios have been mentioned by the media and discounted by the market.
After lagging the curve the FED,the Administration ,the Treasury and the Congress have addressed the issues effecitively .
Now we need moratorium on "short " positions for six months to allow the implemmented remedies to work.
At this point in time the media and certain"predator" funds are responsible for the investors paranoia.
Economy is heading for a moderate expansion in the first half of 2009 and major rebound in the second half of 2009.
Let the SEC contrbute to the analytical rationale and reinstate the moratorium on the short positions.
One more time ,the remedies applied are very dynamic and catalytic but need time to have an impact-i dont want to hear the free market "nonsense" anymore -I want to see the moratorium now ,not when it is too late..
For the record ,I have predicted the current events in an interview with Mark Gilbert in June of 2005 -that includes the level on the 10 yr Treasuries .I have repeated my convictions/prediction... on September18 /2007 during the interview with Brian Sullivan(Bloomberg TV-Fed time)-back then I was told that I was wrong as I am being told now that I am wrong.

Market Overview: Indices Fall with More Earnings Misses

This is a mole nonsense.
For the record ,a desk that trades a 100 million Euros a day in bonds is a Micky Mouse operations.
I trade for my clients in the increments of a 100 million dollars and have traded as much as billion dollars at a clip (treasuries).
For the record ,I dont think any investor expects rebound in the earnings in the near future.It is quite clear that based on the current levels ,two consecutive contractions have been discounted without any allowance for the major economic impact of the TARP-I preferr to call it a stability plan.
Given the magnitude of easing (U.S) and the liquidity injection into the system ,U.S economy and the markets are heading for major rebound-period.
That is not the case for Europe and Asia and Emerging Markets as ECB and other Central Banks were late in acknowledging problems and are behind the curve on the implementation of radically easier monetary policy.
The dollar strength is a reflection of the global recognition of the major U.S economic upward momentum in the period ahead.
In the meantime we have to listen to a Mole nonsense and other economic fairly tales.
We are getting ready for a record /unprecedented stock market rally.
This outcome can not be affected by the new President elect as the catalysts in place will shortly produce the results.
I suppose what is missing on this opinion platform is an article about the end of the universe as the anti Christ is influencing the market.
Enough of this garabage.

Summer in the Citi - Fast Money Recap (5/2/08)

Perhaps it is time to focus on the broad market instead of perceived "singular"opportunitie... FED's aggressive easing to date ,will provide a broad market and economic momentum -but we need to allow for the lag.The fiscal stimulus is significant upward momentum enhancer as well .Using a multiplier of seven,the 140 billion dollars "rebate" ,becomes a significant trillion dollars stimulus.Between the two "jolts"and with some more accomodation from the FED ,we are heading for a major rebound. The record leveraged commodity speculation should not be confused with inflation.In real cyclical inflationary environment,the housing prices would be increasing at least with the rate of inflation.
Let's just focus on the broad stock market rebound and not waste time with individual picks .

Sell in May, Go Away - Fast Money Recap (4/30/08)

Quite a few predictions most of them unenthusiastic.From the Macro perspective ,the stock market had performed quite well.For all of the recessionary predictions(not a reality especially if the FED cuts rates 100bps more),the stock market did quite well.Since the FED comprehends that the economy functions well as long as financial insitutions function well ,it became an active participant in the J.P Morgan -Bear merger ,but more importantly it signalled to the markets/investors that no financial institution will be allowed to fail.True,the record open short interest in the market and specifically financial sector is responsible for irrational bearish attitudes.Psychology is not an economic reality.The monetary and fiscal policies in place ,with some further accomodation from the FED (and allowing for the lag)will contribute to a major economic rebound in the period ahead and will contribute to unprecedented rally in the U.S equity markets .The financial sector will lead that rally.Socio/economic events/upheaval in the emerging markets will result in the record demand for dollar denominated assets(U.S markets and real estate).Commodity inflation?there are no signs of demand pull inflation which would be a cause to worry.The cost push inflation that we are witnessing to date ,is a function of a unprecedented leveraged speculation.In order to resolve this phenomenon,all of the relevant exchanges(NYMEX,Comex) should impose a 100% margins on trading and unprecedented price implosion will follow allowing the FED to focus on the real iisues.To the skeptics ,I would like to point out that some 28 years ago Comex imposed 100% margins on the precious metals ,causing the silver to tumble from fifty dollars to six.So much for commodity inflation.Ther issues/problems .I have been warning about since june 2005(Mark Gilbert- Bloomberg interview,Brian Sullivan Bloomberg TV) are behind us..For all of the pessimism the U.S markets and the economy are on the verge of a major rebound.