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Truebluealpha

Truebluealpha
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ARCP, BAC, COP, CVX, F, GE, GIS, HTS, KO, LLY, MSFT, NLY, O, TGT, WFC, WMT
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  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    Oh my, that's interesting news. China would do better to ban outdoor smoking (its belching coal & other industrial plants).
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:37 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing Doesn't Work: Intel And Philip Morris Edition [View article]
    Dave, to answer your sign-off question, I would say, "Yes—pretty much every other field one can possibly think of." It's human nature to pontificate from on high and make sweeping generalizations about damn near everything for damn near everybody. Just check the NYT best-seller lists: Prescriptions galore for what everyone should do or think post-haste in order to improve their lives. (Starting with buying the book in question and helping to make the author rich, so he or she can start making misguided investment decisions...) :-)
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lesson Learned: I Was The Sucker [View article]
    You're the first person I thought of when I espied that 30+ percent drop in ARCP the other day, Brad. I certainly can't say you didn't warn us. One more reminder we should all attend to that queasy gut feeling you'd talked about—and now I'm going to pay a lot closer attention to when YOU get that feeling! Live and learn!!
    Oct 31, 2014. 11:58 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sucker Yield REITs: Does Annaly Capital Management Qualify? [View article]
    Interesting discussion here, great array of perspectives again showing the value of the SA platform. I would only say that the nearly incessant warning regarding an imminent interest rate rise is starting to show some signs of wear. I've been hearing the "not if but when" argument for years now, but the "when" keeps getting kicked down the road. Meanwhile, those long-term bonds funds I ditched per the advice of Bill Gross and many others keep just sailing along, providing outsize divvies I've been missing out on all this while. Kind of like Annaly (though I've benefited from keeping a position there).
    Sep 6, 2014. 09:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: How Much Would Be The Next Dividend Hike? [View article]
    Long CVX myself and appreciate your analysis, but it seems Seeking Alpha editors were asleep on the job here in letting that tortured headline pass, which I would respectfully rewrite to: "Chevron: How Much Might the Next Dividend Hike Be?"
    Aug 23, 2014. 12:14 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Few REIT Lessons Targeted For Millennial Investors [View article]
    Your usual sound & sensible guidance here, Brad, thank you. One sticking point, though, which I'm hoping you can address: Doesn't ensuring a margin of safety also include, to some significant degree, timing the market? The margin itself is a function of favorable pricing at a given point in time, no? And if the price rises because investors flock to the stock after having read your articles :-) wouldn't your margin of safety disappear? And what is that if not a function of timing?

    Just wanting to understand this on a conceptual basis because while I have come to buy fully into the idea of not even trying to outsmart Mr. Market, there is still a point & a price in time where I either pull the trigger or I don't, and a point & price in time where my safety margin disappears. Sooooo...the crux of it is knowing (or best-guessing) where that point is, yes?
    Aug 18, 2014. 08:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: The Absurdity Of Believing That Dividends Don't Matter In Retirement [View article]
    I'd be curious about your take on insurance companies in the growth sector that don't pay a div—I've been in Genworth Financial (NYSE:GNW) for a couple of years, and it almost sextupled before a recent pullback. So it's been a great investment, but does one then collect the gains and reinvest in div-paying insurance companies, or hold on to what seems to be a good company, figuring they'll eventually have to start paying a div? Or will they? Would insurance companies be under any more pressure to pays divs than, say, a tech company?
    Aug 12, 2014. 10:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital: Looking Ahead To Q2 Earnings And A Potential Dividend Increase [View article]
    "If"..."Somewhat..."..... like to see"...

    What I'd like to see are fewer qualifiers and a lot less hedge-betting for this article to be of much value.
    Jul 5, 2014. 04:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • General Mills, Inc.: Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    Could you clarify whether you're looking for the price to come down to the $39.44 you cite to meet the desired "NPV MMA Differential," or the $44.04 "fair value" before you'll consider buying? Just read Parsimony Research's piece on GIS in this morning's round of SA, where they indicate the Buy Zone is anywhere under $51. Wondering about the rather substantial discrepancy between your analysis and theirs.
    Jun 19, 2014. 10:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Realty Income Corp. Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    I, too, would like to buy O at $29.66.

    Tomorrow, I would also enjoy heading off to the moon in my own solo rocket. Perhaps the author can apply some of his acute scientific analysis to make that happen.
    May 22, 2014. 12:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • After Earnings Miss, Wal-Mart Should Buy Whole Foods [View article]
    This idea is like Obama and Boehner suddenly deciding to become fishing buddies—or worse, being directed to do so by their advisors. Sure it would be good for the country, "Who would have thought?" etc., but the difference in sensibilities between those men—and in culture between a Wal-Mart and Whole Foods—is profound, and that difference makes a total wreck of any breezy notions that their union would be either a good or a workable matter.
    May 15, 2014. 01:04 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retirement Strategy: Did You Buy The Last Dip? You Should Have, But There Will Be Others [View article]
    I'm waiting for the chicken to finish on the barbie so this will be quick, but just wanted to comment on the general wisdom of a "Buy the Dip" approach, which I try to follow "except when I don't," and also about how much I enjoy the spirit of this conversation—chortling many times into my beer here while the chicken sizzles....
    May 7, 2014. 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Your Risk Tolerance With American Realty Capital Properties? [View article]
    I quibble only with the closing quote from Frank Williams, which was no doubt written in a time when his "savings-bank" actually paid him interest to park his money there. Today, savings accounts are actually guaranteed to fall in value against inflation, so that is hardly risk-averse.
    May 1, 2014. 01:40 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Does Warren Buffett Still Hold The Bumbling, Stumbling Bank Of America? [View article]
    That's reassuring on the investment front, Strategic, and I appreciate your sober political assessment, despite its pointing to the train wreck our political system has so sadly become...
    Apr 30, 2014. 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Does Warren Buffett Still Hold The Bumbling, Stumbling Bank Of America? [View article]
    The question for long-suffering BAC shareholders is whether we're going to live long enough to see our investment pan out for us, or whether our shares, should we choose to continue holding them, will smile only on our heirs. I suppose I should take solace in the fact that aging as I am along with my BAC stock, I'm still quite a bit younger than Warren B., so maybe I can aspire to be as patient as he is...
    Apr 30, 2014. 11:03 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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