Jason Tillberg's Comments Jason Tillberg's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/170390/comments The Final Charts of the Decade http://seekingalpha.com/article/180485-the-final-charts-of-the-decade?source=feed#comment-828134 828134 Thu, 31 Dec 2009 12:21:16 -0500 U.S. Debt Scheme: Is It All Just a Ponzi Scheme? http://seekingalpha.com/article/180448-u-s-debt-scheme-is-it-all-just-a-ponzi-scheme?source=feed#comment-827932 827932
At the time of our country's founding, we had MEN who were far more righteous. The coinage act of 1792, section 19, stated:

Section 19. And be it further enacted, That

basing the coins. if any of the gold or silver coins which

shall be struck or coined at the said mint

shall be debased or made worse as to the

proportion of the fine gold or fine silver

therein contained, or shall be of less weight

or value than the same out to be pursuant to

the directions of this act, through the

default or with the connivance of any of the

officers or persons who shall be employed at

the said mint, for the purpose of profit or

gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent,

and if any of the said officers or persons

shall embezzle any of the metals which shall

at any time be committed to their charge for

the purpose of being coined, or any of the

coins which shall be struck or coined at the

said mint, every such officer or person who

shall commit any or either of the said

offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony,

and shall suffer death.

Today, we try and pull this Phantom debasement BS and the man behind the curtain gets "Man of the Year" award.]]> Thu, 31 Dec 2009 10:38:10 -0500
At the time of our country's founding, we had MEN who were far more righteous. The coinage act of 1792, section 19, stated:

Section 19. And be it further enacted, That

basing the coins. if any of the gold or silver coins which

shall be struck or coined at the said mint

shall be debased or made worse as to the

proportion of the fine gold or fine silver

therein contained, or shall be of less weight

or value than the same out to be pursuant to

the directions of this act, through the

default or with the connivance of any of the

officers or persons who shall be employed at

the said mint, for the purpose of profit or

gain, or otherwise with a fraudulent intent,

and if any of the said officers or persons

shall embezzle any of the metals which shall

at any time be committed to their charge for

the purpose of being coined, or any of the

coins which shall be struck or coined at the

said mint, every such officer or person who

shall commit any or either of the said

offenses, shall be deemed guilty of felony,

and shall suffer death.

Today, we try and pull this Phantom debasement BS and the man behind the curtain gets "Man of the Year" award.]]> Expect More Bailouts in 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/article/180233-expect-more-bailouts-in-2010?source=feed#comment-826160 826160
The soundness of a nations currency is in direct proportion to the soundness of a nations government. Daryl is right to expect more bailouts which in turn will require direct debasement of our currency.

Debasement of our currency was in 1792 in the coinage act, section 19, penalty of death. Today, it gets you the man of the year award. ]]> Wed, 30 Dec 2009 09:16:24 -0500
The soundness of a nations currency is in direct proportion to the soundness of a nations government. Daryl is right to expect more bailouts which in turn will require direct debasement of our currency.

Debasement of our currency was in 1792 in the coinage act, section 19, penalty of death. Today, it gets you the man of the year award. ]]> Hedge fund manager Eric Sprott, whose fund returned 496% over the past nine years, says investors are delusional. "We're in a bear market that will last 15 or 20 years, and we've had nine of them." Sprott predicts the S&P will collapse below its March low of 676.5, while gold (GLD) is the only asset about which he remains positive. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/39011?source=feed#comment-824974 824974
That was the greatest consumer generation the world has ever known.

.]]> Tue, 29 Dec 2009 11:10:10 -0500
That was the greatest consumer generation the world has ever known.

.]]> It's time to get out of bonds, strategist Dan Deighan of Deighan Financial Advisors says. The economy may be able to withstand the coming rise in interest rates, he says, but "there is going to be a meltdown in the bond market." Presently, March 30-year bonds are +0.22% at 115-08. The rest of the curve is flat. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/39005?source=feed#comment-824894 824894 Tue, 29 Dec 2009 10:27:45 -0500 Real Estate ETFs to Consider if the Recovery Continues in 2010 http://seekingalpha.com/article/180151-real-estate-etfs-to-consider-if-the-recovery-continues-in-2010?source=feed#comment-824877 824877
Are you kidding? .. residential price rebound due to massive.. MASSIVE efforts on part of Fed that are winding down. Will look like a ski jump in 6 months. Bottom probably in 2012.

CRE is a complete disaster and with rates starting to rise again, look out below in my opinion. I don't expect bottom until 2015 or so.]]> Tue, 29 Dec 2009 10:22:41 -0500
Are you kidding? .. residential price rebound due to massive.. MASSIVE efforts on part of Fed that are winding down. Will look like a ski jump in 6 months. Bottom probably in 2012.

CRE is a complete disaster and with rates starting to rise again, look out below in my opinion. I don't expect bottom until 2015 or so.]]> Barron's says the central problem with the economy is the Central Bank. "How many more crises must we endure until we realize the common denominator is the creation of money and credit by the Fed?" http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38960?source=feed#comment-823943 823943
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)]]> Mon, 28 Dec 2009 14:36:54 -0500
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)]]> The VP of America's largest shopping mall says holiday season has been super: "We knew eventually they'd splurge, and I think they saved up all their money and they're spending it this Christmas, and I think it might just save us this holiday season. They are buying thoughtfully, but they are buying." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38853?source=feed#comment-820343 820343 Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:24:24 -0500 The VP of America's largest shopping mall says holiday season has been super: "We knew eventually they'd splurge, and I think they saved up all their money and they're spending it this Christmas, and I think it might just save us this holiday season. They are buying thoughtfully, but they are buying." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38853?source=feed#comment-820339 820339 Thu, 24 Dec 2009 10:22:55 -0500 Defining the Santa Claus Rally and the January Effect http://seekingalpha.com/article/179629-defining-the-santa-claus-rally-and-the-january-effect?source=feed#comment-819253 819253
Daryl,

Just who has access to the liquidity provided by the Fed? Would that answer the question of just who is driving stocks up back to bubble valuations?]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 15:19:45 -0500
Daryl,

Just who has access to the liquidity provided by the Fed? Would that answer the question of just who is driving stocks up back to bubble valuations?]]> Interesting, balanced profile of high-frequency trading in MIT's Technology Review. According to one trader: "We create order. When the markets are disorderly, we make a lot of money, but we are doing it by restoring the markets to order." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38788?source=feed#comment-819200 819200 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 14:22:15 -0500 Nov. New Home Sales: -11.3% to 355K vs. 425K expected, 430K prior. Months' supply 7.9 vs. 6.7 prior. New home sales are based on contracts signed, so these numbers are what the market looks like post stimulus credit. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38776?source=feed#comment-818645 818645
AAII bears below 30% , first time since May of 08' and now VIX below 20 signals good time to get short or raise cash.

Who knows, markets may rise 20% from here. It's that crazy of a time. ]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 10:05:02 -0500
AAII bears below 30% , first time since May of 08' and now VIX below 20 signals good time to get short or raise cash.

Who knows, markets may rise 20% from here. It's that crazy of a time. ]]> Nov. Personal Income and Outlays Income +0.4% vs. +0.5% expected, +0.2% prior. Spending +0.5% vs. +0.6% expected, +0.7% prior. PCE core price index: 0% vs. +0.1% expected, +0.2% prior. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38761?source=feed#comment-818496 818496 Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:32:33 -0500 The Santa Claus Rally Continues http://seekingalpha.com/article/179479-the-santa-claus-rally-continues?source=feed#comment-818458 818458
Something will give in this economy. These kinds of things simply can't go on without major corrections. ]]> Wed, 23 Dec 2009 08:05:33 -0500
Something will give in this economy. These kinds of things simply can't go on without major corrections. ]]> Bill Ackman says Hovde's analysis of General Growth Properties (GGWPQ.PK) - which led it to believe its assets no longer exceed its debt - is materially flawed, and thinks the bankruptcy creates a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for a large strategic buyer (BAM, SPG...). http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38706?source=feed#comment-817124 817124 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 11:14:05 -0500 Oct. highway travel ▼0.5% (-1.4B miles) vs. a year ago. Cumulative travel for 2009 seen ▲0.2%. (FHA) http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38703?source=feed#comment-817080 817080 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 10:46:16 -0500 Q3 GDP, final: +2.2 vs. +2.7% expected, +2.8% previous estimate, -0.7% in Q2. That was unexpected. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38678?source=feed#comment-816873 816873 Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:34:41 -0500 Are S&P 500 Growth Projections Realistic? http://seekingalpha.com/article/179263-are-s-p-500-growth-projections-realistic?source=feed#comment-816869 816869

On Dec 21 05:09 PM tunaman4u2 wrote:

> S&P 500 will jump to $94.98 a share in 2011 from $62.52 this
> year,
>
> No chance... theres no need to build more stores & homes... wages
> continue to decline while printing money increases costs...
>
> Expect demand destruction to continue. For example...
> As a health care worker my Medicare reimbursement is down 20% next
> year while my family health insurance went from $950 to $1500
>
> Thats hundreds of dollars LESS per month I have to spend.
>
> You make no mention of the job market in 2011... think we will have
> full recovery of jobs with full recovery in S&P earnings? Not
> a chance.
>
> Theres a million reasons you're wrong and a few grasping at straws
> reasons you may be right... i'll take my odds on you're wrong.]]> Tue, 22 Dec 2009 08:31:42 -0500

On Dec 21 05:09 PM tunaman4u2 wrote:

> S&P 500 will jump to $94.98 a share in 2011 from $62.52 this
> year,
>
> No chance... theres no need to build more stores & homes... wages
> continue to decline while printing money increases costs...
>
> Expect demand destruction to continue. For example...
> As a health care worker my Medicare reimbursement is down 20% next
> year while my family health insurance went from $950 to $1500
>
> Thats hundreds of dollars LESS per month I have to spend.
>
> You make no mention of the job market in 2011... think we will have
> full recovery of jobs with full recovery in S&P earnings? Not
> a chance.
>
> Theres a million reasons you're wrong and a few grasping at straws
> reasons you may be right... i'll take my odds on you're wrong.]]> Hain Celestial Group: Buy, Sell or Hold? http://seekingalpha.com/article/168317-hain-celestial-group-buy-sell-or-hold?source=feed#comment-816479 816479
On Nov 09 07:11 AM User 496129 wrote:

> Like most analysts who think they know wat they are talking about,
> This guy is another waste of time. People actually pay to attend
> his class. Hain is already past $19. It was rated a buy by Jim Cramer.]]> Mon, 21 Dec 2009 20:52:43 -0500
On Nov 09 07:11 AM User 496129 wrote:

> Like most analysts who think they know wat they are talking about,
> This guy is another waste of time. People actually pay to attend
> his class. Hain is already past $19. It was rated a buy by Jim Cramer.]]> Thursday Outlook: It's Going to Be a Tricky Day http://seekingalpha.com/article/178675-thursday-outlook-it-s-going-to-be-a-tricky-day?source=feed#comment-811124 811124
Sovereign defaults Iceland style on deck. What a complete joke of a rally that I think just ended with dollar rally and bullish sentiment peak.

but give it 4-12 weeks max.. things can still be stupid/irrational.]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:02:08 -0500
Sovereign defaults Iceland style on deck. What a complete joke of a rally that I think just ended with dollar rally and bullish sentiment peak.

but give it 4-12 weeks max.. things can still be stupid/irrational.]]> According to a Chinese central bank official, it's becoming increasingly difficult for foreign governments to buy U.S. Treasurys, because the shrinking current-account gap is reducing supply of dollars overseas. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38424?source=feed#comment-810035 810035
From Ben's Helicopter speech in November of 2002: "We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."]]> Thu, 17 Dec 2009 08:15:04 -0500
From Ben's Helicopter speech in November of 2002: "We conclude that, under a paper-money system, a determined government can always generate higher spending and hence positive inflation."]]> Goldman Sachs bets against the recently rising dollar, saying clients should buy euros that it forecasts will rise to $1.55 in three months. “The recent positive growth impact from the inventory cycle and fiscal stimulus is likely to taper off during 2010," the bank said, adding that the dollar tends to weaken in the last two weeks of December. Currently: Euro at $1.4579. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38371?source=feed#comment-808559 808559 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 12:25:54 -0500 Holiday shopping to date is at a five-year low, with consumers saying they've completed just 46.7% of their purchases despite early promotions. "All season long, we've heard that consumers are continuing to wait until they think that they'll get the best deal possible," NRF says. "Some people are just hesitant to spend their money on something when they might get a better deal closer to the holiday." http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38362?source=feed#comment-808285 808285 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:23:33 -0500 Futures drop after a serious plunge in NY area manufacturing, and a steeper than expected rise in wholesale prices. Dow now -0.5% to 10388. S&P -0.6% to 1102. Nasdaq -0.5%. Euro now -0.8% vs. dollar. Yen -0.9%. Pound -0.5%. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/38261?source=feed#comment-806329 806329 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 09:08:38 -0500 Opportunities in Dividend Investing: A Seeking Alpha Expert Panel http://seekingalpha.com/article/176751-opportunities-in-dividend-investing-a-seeking-alpha-expert-panel?source=feed#comment-793256 793256

On Dec 06 12:36 PM appleberry wrote:

> Dividend aristocrats are companies in the S&P 500 that have increased
> dividend payouts to shareholders every year for the last 25 years:
>
>
> www.TopYields.nl/Top-d...]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 19:53:23 -0500

On Dec 06 12:36 PM appleberry wrote:

> Dividend aristocrats are companies in the S&P 500 that have increased
> dividend payouts to shareholders every year for the last 25 years:
>
>
> www.TopYields.nl/Top-d...]]> How Do the Best Performing Stocks of the Decade Compare to Predictions in 2000? http://seekingalpha.com/article/176774-how-do-the-best-performing-stocks-of-the-decade-compare-to-predictions-in-2000?source=feed#comment-793086 793086
It's a crap shoot. Who knows future.


On Dec 06 02:01 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

> It's the "stealth" stocks that outperform, and the popular stocks
> that underperform. Some of our best perfomers were companies that
> people have "never" heard of. Moral: buy financial profiles (e.g.
> low P/E, low price book, low price cash flow, low price sales, not
> "brand names."]]> Sun, 06 Dec 2009 16:02:41 -0500
It's a crap shoot. Who knows future.


On Dec 06 02:01 PM Graham and Dodd Investor wrote:

> It's the "stealth" stocks that outperform, and the popular stocks
> that underperform. Some of our best perfomers were companies that
> people have "never" heard of. Moral: buy financial profiles (e.g.
> low P/E, low price book, low price cash flow, low price sales, not
> "brand names."]]> A surprising nonfarm payrolls number, with unemployment dropping to 10%, spurs markets in Europe and futures in the U.S.: Benchmark S&P futures +1.2%, Dow futures +1.1%, Nasdaq +1.1%. Factory orders coming up at 10:00. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37670?source=feed#comment-790118 790118
Inflation now 3% year over year. I think Americans are getting sick and tired of being robbed of their savings through negative real interest rates and devalued dollar.


On Dec 04 09:24 AM Aussie Knight wrote:

> So when can they start lifting rates ?]]> Fri, 04 Dec 2009 09:28:17 -0500
Inflation now 3% year over year. I think Americans are getting sick and tired of being robbed of their savings through negative real interest rates and devalued dollar.


On Dec 04 09:24 AM Aussie Knight wrote:

> So when can they start lifting rates ?]]> Nov. same-store sales (actual vs. Briefing.com estimate), update #2: ANF -17% vs. -10%. AEO -2% vs. -2.2%. CATO 0% vs. -1.5%. DDS -11% vs. -8%. FRED -3.3% vs. -1.5%. GPS 0% vs. -0.2%. JCP -5.9% vs. -4.5%. JWN +2.2% vs. +2%. KSS +3.3% vs. +0.8%. M -6.1% vs. -3.2%. SKS -26.1% vs. -21%. TGT -1.5% vs. -0.6%. TJX +8% vs. +9.1%. WTSLA -5% vs. -6.6%. 8 misses, 6 beats, for a total of 18 misses and 7 beats. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37582?source=feed#comment-788225 788225 Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:54:26 -0500 Nov. same-store sales (actual vs. Briefing.com estimate), update #1:ARO +7% vs. +10%.APP -11% vs. -3%.BKE +1.4% vs. +4%.BONT -6% vs. +1%.COST +6% vs. +8.2%.HOTT -11.7% vs. -7.9%.LTD +3% vs. -2.3%.PLCE -13% vs. +0.8%.SMRT -7.2% vs. -6.5%.SSI -12.5% vs. -5.3%.ZUMZ -8.5% vs. -8.1%.10 misses, 1 beat. http://seekingalpha.com/news/market_currents/post/37573?source=feed#comment-788152 788152
wait until the 46% of people who lost their job and cashed out their 401k money runs out.

wait until states start making major cuts

wait until taxes go up]]> Thu, 03 Dec 2009 08:15:12 -0500
wait until the 46% of people who lost their job and cashed out their 401k money runs out.

wait until states start making major cuts

wait until taxes go up]]> Pumps On "Full" http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/473246-chris-martenson/37903-pumps-on-full?source=feed#comment-785441 785441
Ben will decide fate of the dollar, but my bias is that when fear comes back into the markets, and fear will undoubtedly come back, the flight to safety will again be "the reserve currency." Why? Because all debt must be paid in dollars. Not gold, not silver, not stocks or bonds, but in dollars.

The debt is still out there and it needs to get repaid in DOLLARS.


On Dec 01 01:32 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Chris said:
>
> "I am truly amazed at what I am seeing out there in the markets these
> days. I also understand and share the frustration of the many analysts
> who know what "should" be happening but is not.
>
> What should be happening is massive, self-reinforcing deflation caused
> by debt destruction and resulting from the housing bust and retreat
> of consumer borrowing."
>
> Chris, you are one of the few Seeking Alpha authors with a good thinking
> brain that I can respect. But frustrated you should, as you and the
> many analysts clear have drawn the wrong conclusion even if you get
> many facts right. You draw the wrong conclusion because like most
> people, over 99% of the people, you don't truely understand what
> is money.
>
> We are indeed seeing a massive DEFLATION as a result of debt destruction.
> You just have to realize that gold, precious metals and commodities,
> ARE the real money, most of everything else, including the US dollar,
> DEFLATE relative to the real money, gold and other physical commodities.
> The value of everything debt-dependent deflates relative to real
> money, some will deflate to zero value.
>
> Consider the US dollar as a paper asset, and gold as physical cash
> money, then you will get the whole picture right.
>
> What to do? SHORT the US dollars. How to short the dollar? Buy everything
> that goes up against the dollar, using margin buying power.]]> Tue, 01 Dec 2009 21:09:54 -0500
Ben will decide fate of the dollar, but my bias is that when fear comes back into the markets, and fear will undoubtedly come back, the flight to safety will again be "the reserve currency." Why? Because all debt must be paid in dollars. Not gold, not silver, not stocks or bonds, but in dollars.

The debt is still out there and it needs to get repaid in DOLLARS.


On Dec 01 01:32 PM Mark Anthony wrote:

> Chris said:
>
> "I am truly amazed at what I am seeing out there in the markets these
> days. I also understand and share the frustration of the many analysts
> who know what "should" be happening but is not.
>
> What should be happening is massive, self-reinforcing deflation caused
> by debt destruction and resulting from the housing bust and retreat
> of consumer borrowing."
>
> Chris, you are one of the few Seeking Alpha authors with a good thinking
> brain that I can respect. But frustrated you should, as you and the
> many analysts clear have drawn the wrong conclusion even if you get
> many facts right. You draw the wrong conclusion because like most
> people, over 99% of the people, you don't truely understand what
> is money.
>
> We are indeed seeing a massive DEFLATION as a result of debt destruction.
> You just have to realize that gold, precious metals and commodities,
> ARE the real money, most of everything else, including the US dollar,
> DEFLATE relative to the real money, gold and other physical commodities.
> The value of everything debt-dependent deflates relative to real
> money, some will deflate to zero value.
>
> Consider the US dollar as a paper asset, and gold as physical cash
> money, then you will get the whole picture right.
>
> What to do? SHORT the US dollars. How to short the dollar? Buy everything
> that goes up against the dollar, using margin buying power.]]>