dicki31785

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

@Immuni4fun I was only talking about their own production...That means not counting Q-cells actually....Which is only an assembly of parts...

182.5x1.5=273.75 is their OWN production....at least that was their guidance(I took the median of 2008 guidance and that x 1.5)....so they produce 273.75 MW...I assume the build one line a Q of 30 MW a piece so lets say they have an average capacity of 420 MW in 2009 and only producing 273.75....which is an utilization of about 65% of their cell capacity...(By year end of 2009 they will have a capacity of 480 MW concerning cells obviously again).....So my only point is maybe they could have made some wiser investment choices....If you believe in those choices, as I assume you do since it sounds like you are long, then see how it works out...

All I am saying their is some risk involved since they are constrained in two parts of their supply chain(poly+wafers) and that is undebatable...so why focus on the part they have plenty off just doesn't make much sense to me...

And mate they said on their call they have good visibility of 200 MW in contracts in 2009 and pre-sold 50 % of that....so in my math, which might be wrong;), that is 100 MW...So my math in the post above is actually wrong if you want to think about the actual capacity ...100MW/420MW=23% utilization...or lets take the "good visibility" 200/420=47%....I am not saying it will happen I am just saying their are some big risks involved....I am more comfortable with my solar investments(CSIQ, TSL + ESLR though ESLR is just a tiny part of the account not really worth mentioning)...but that is obviously ones own choice....And none of those cells as mentioned above are going toward Q-cells as it is just an assembly...not saying that is a bad business, but also consider this Q cells only signed a letter of intent as stated in the call if the market turns(which i dont believe in but one has to take it into account) they might just pull the plug....Just think about it...with kind regards from Germany CW