dicki31785

As Solar Sector Flies, Pay Attention to Values

I wouldn't discount the risk and the capital, needed, involved becoming a vertical player....surely it is a nice idea and everybody in the space seems to be heading that way....Since you can save a "couple" basis points of margin at every step of the supply chain....but you gotta be good at what you are doing....You can't jsut become a vertically integrated player and thats the end of the story....it involves a bit more than that....

my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW

Rick's and Netflix: A Time to Buy, A Time to Short?

First I would like to say I have no position in netflix...But I think to advise a trade like you did...you should have a much better risk vs reward profile....NFLX will not break $35 to the downside....(unless the stock market turns around harshly) and if things continue well that stock can be faster at $50 then you can look...one really good piece of news and watch the shorts run.....Not a good advice mate...but time will tell who is right!with kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

It is true most German companies just produce normal mono or poly cells that they have been producing for years....and are just optimizing that process....Instead of creating technologies that seem to be better fit, and are breakthrough technologies (which could be the case for nanosolar for example but one hears way too little about them to believe them...but also FSLR)

But I would like to say that I am unsure if FSLR can command that pricing advantage (when taking into consideration the conversion efficency) if polysilicon prices continue to erode....because if we have spot poly prices at around $50 I could imagine FSLR's margins significantly squeezed....Though they are a company that one can just praise....

In solar we always talk about scale....but is that really the right way?FSLR has three different locations of production (Germany, USA and what is it Malaysia or the Philippines....I forgot)....maybe that is the right way to go about innovation...instead of centering everything around one major headquarter....where I suppose you would only have very similar thought processes....

In any case this quarter is going to be a tough one when looking at SPWR's numbers....I for one like the Chinese producers....And I swear on the fully intergrated model...because I think companies like SOL and LDK which more or less just cover a couple of steps in the supply chain are in deep trouble....Maybe LDK and Q-Cells will accomplish something together when pooling their expertise....but I consider companies such as STP and TSL as future winners...TSL is offering the cheapest module on the German market right now....The question is does that speak for their ability to cut production costs or is that done in order to lower inventory levels....I guess we will know when they present numbers...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

@FredW

I don't think at any point of my post I lumped "Americans" together...The only point I wanted to make that Americans are not as educated about Solar in comparison with Germans. I Do not know what that has to with my country's history. (or was it the Iraq comment that got you upset, then I am sorry, but I think that point that the "second gulf war" was for resources is in my humble opinion undebatable).

And that "Americans" are not as knowledgeable in comparisons to Germans is not all too surprising considering we are the leader in PV installations around the world, don't mind Spain's one year of glory, so obviously one would have less understanding in general. Not to say their is not plenty of people out their that have a very fine understanding of the subject matter. But obviously in Germany a lot more people come to see the payoffs, and talk to other people who have already installed PV on their houses, factories, etc. So it was not meant as an insult, just an obvious deduction.

Once a wider range of understanding for the technology comes around PV will be supported much more (check out Gainesville for example with the first feed in tariff, in the US, though it is only 5MW or was it15MW but still....it is a step in the right direction). Especially when you consider the rapid fall in PV prices that we have experienced in the last 6 months. This crisis is, in effect, the biggest opportunity ever for Solar to finally claw itself out of there niche and go mainstream. Poly prices are falling rapidly and are continuing to do so. Bringing about the most rapid cost reductions Solar has ever seen.

PS You absolutely have no class. That was your only comment to the whole post I made, scared of me lumping together "Americans". Pointing to my countries history, instead of focusing on the discussion about solar.

Should I get started on the dictators that you "Americans" placed around S.A. throughout the 20th century (one prominent ex. would be Pinochet) the pain and suffering you "Americans" have caused their. Or should we talk about Vietnam and what crimes were committed their (napalm) or should we just talk about the abuses going on in Iraq NOW, not 60 years ago. I also really like pyramids of naked people mate, or just girls being raped and to cover it up the whole family being killed. Or the 500,000 Iraqis dead in a war for resources.

So please let it go, we are very much so conscious of what happened and are still confronted with the subject more or less every day.

It is comments like that, which only come only from a certain small crowd, why most people around the world can't stand you "Americans" anymore. Being the moral apostle but having "s***" to back it up. Nothing but hot air. You should have just discussed my post instead of worrying about things that have nothing, and absolutely nothing to do with the subject matter.

@Dave Marsch

Thank you, I enjoyed a few great years in the states which helped me learn the language. I am Actually thinking about buying a house again as a holiday destination. I love Florida:).

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

Corrections
1. Under point 1 after "still the technology is not ready" the second part of the bracket is missing
2. Under point 2 it reads "oil does".....it should read "oil does not".....(besides its obvious effects on commodities but did not want to get into too much detail because then the post would have been endless...)
3. Just the general reading flow....I guess it doesn't always flow well but I hope you all understand my main points:)...it is after all my 2nd language...

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

Nice article mate...I do have to say though their is not one solar program out their that started without growing pains....lets exclude Spain from the conversation but even their program took some time to spin out of control...2.2 GW in 08 that was absurd...but it took a few years to get their...It is sort of like a huge stimulus package and the "reward" comes in a few years, in the case not proper mechanism are in place, when inflation spins out of control.

In any case my main point is that all programs have trouble getting started....The main issue lies of spreading the cost of solar power around OECD countries and a few others that can afford it, everybody has to chip in to get this technology rolling (which is certainly not the case but things are getting better)....And it shouldn't be too hard when one takes a closer look at the costs....

Everybody points at the cost of solar....But I would like to point to three things:


1. The potential of the technology (Now I can already hear the Americans scream but solar started in the 70's but still the technology is not ready...But the potential is huge....All those technologies that have come out just in the last year....Imagine five years from now....though the people that want to survive in the industry have to be ready in 3 yrs max (reach grid parity).

2. The subsidization of oil, coal, etc.l projects (I know oil does have much to do with the price of energy....but that is what people use as a reference and who am I to argue....). I am not even talking about the subsidies now, which are just way absurd to comprehend, but include past subsidies as well...only then do you get the true cost of electricity of today...

3. Future cost of electricity...Whoever thinks that $150 oil was a fluke is going to be surprised concerning the average oil price in the next few years....In the worst recession in a while the oil price is hovering around $50....that is sort of scary isn't it?!

4. Last but surely not least....The political costs of importing energy resources....Whether it being the EU which can't even cough without Russia (gas, oil, etc.) "agreeing", or the US which had to start a war for resources. The political costs are huge, just take a quick look at the US budget, not to mention future costs...(Iran etc.)

In conclusion when one considers all the costs solar is not that expensive....just a long term perspective is necessary....and in late 2009 or early 2010 I think a few companies can already produce at grid parity, even without considering these costs, FSLR and MAYBE a couple others....(Nanosolar?)

With Kind Regards from Germany,

CW

SolarWorld's Asbeck: Panel Prices to Drop 10% in 2009

FYI This is an estimate that takes the base price from Q4 2008 meaning that a big price drop is already incorporated....and thus is not comparable to the STP prediction which has the base of Q3 2008 with kind regards from Germany CW

Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates

I have read all the news in the article before as well Wojna12....so no new news to me either... but I am pretty sure some people are finding this helpful as well...and obviously it is more or less copy and paste but he referenced the article as well, so he wasn't going for something special here(I suppose)....I think he just wanted to give people a clear look on what is going on right now with the stock...and give all the latest news about Trina which he managed more or less IMO...Their is so much turmoil in the markets it took two days for the US to even register Trina's guidance for 2009....

IMO Their is no reason to take attack the guy...if you can do it better open up a blog(or whatever) and write about it...what do you get out of attacking the guy...sorta childish...isn't it?Could have been a nice discussion concerning TSL but instead we are commenting on your rubbish...Another option would have been to give feedback on your analysis that I suppose you did thoroughly...would have been a lot more constructive...but the window of opportunity is still open:)

In any case Trina is a good investment for the long-term(which in this market is about 3-6 months if the market doesnt get crushed otherwise average down the valuations are absurd)...demand for next year will be about 7GW, if y'all would like I can give you an expected breakdown(in MW...I recently updated the demand side and can give you the supply side as well though I did not research the supply side myself but somebody gave it to me and the numbers checked out) market by market, meaning the oversupply will not happen in 2009 as predicted....in 2010 this might be another story but with solar and the rapid advancements that are actually made, more or less, every day in the supply chain anything can happen....With kind regards from Germany CW

Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates

What insightful input Wojna12....just one question, if Trader Mark is writing rubbish how would your analyze your input?....Thanks for wasting 30 seconds of my life by reading your comments...with kind regards from Germany CW

PS Trader Mark with the current net profit margin, which is likely to expand, Trina is bound to make about 142 millions in 2009...surely have seen worse valuations;):)

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL

Trina Solar: Still Attractive, Despite Stock Decline

dont know how this didnt make it onto american sites yet...

www.finanznachrichten....

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

@Quasi Yoda...I'll look into it thanks for the advice kind regards CW

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

concerning next year (poly)

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

Sorry actually i just read that their is no poly constraint....so then it would be even more wise to invest in wafers....kind regards CW

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

@Immuni4fun I was only talking about their own production...That means not counting Q-cells actually....Which is only an assembly of parts...

182.5x1.5=273.75 is their OWN production....at least that was their guidance(I took the median of 2008 guidance and that x 1.5)....so they produce 273.75 MW...I assume the build one line a Q of 30 MW a piece so lets say they have an average capacity of 420 MW in 2009 and only producing 273.75....which is an utilization of about 65% of their cell capacity...(By year end of 2009 they will have a capacity of 480 MW concerning cells obviously again).....So my only point is maybe they could have made some wiser investment choices....If you believe in those choices, as I assume you do since it sounds like you are long, then see how it works out...

All I am saying their is some risk involved since they are constrained in two parts of their supply chain(poly+wafers) and that is undebatable...so why focus on the part they have plenty off just doesn't make much sense to me...

And mate they said on their call they have good visibility of 200 MW in contracts in 2009 and pre-sold 50 % of that....so in my math, which might be wrong;), that is 100 MW...So my math in the post above is actually wrong if you want to think about the actual capacity ...100MW/420MW=23% utilization...or lets take the "good visibility" 200/420=47%....I am not saying it will happen I am just saying their are some big risks involved....I am more comfortable with my solar investments(CSIQ, TSL + ESLR though ESLR is just a tiny part of the account not really worth mentioning)...but that is obviously ones own choice....And none of those cells as mentioned above are going toward Q-cells as it is just an assembly...not saying that is a bad business, but also consider this Q cells only signed a letter of intent as stated in the call if the market turns(which i dont believe in but one has to take it into account) they might just pull the plug....Just think about it...with kind regards from Germany CW

Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter

Well I would actually say their is numerous reason for the stockprice downturn....first they have only presold 100 MW of the expected 272.5 MW output in 2009...and people were complaining that TSL only pre-sold 60% so far so what do they say to 36.6%....secondly if the module prices fall more than 10% solf is going to get crushed(though i do not believe in that scenario since I am a solar bull)...at last I didn't understand why they put so much money in ramping the cell capacity...It appears at year end they will have 360 MW capacity....and adding on 4 more lines each being 30 MW per line...I think they should have concentrated on wafer capacity(as this is one of their two bottlenecks in the supply chain the other being poly)...and maybe only ramp two lines of cell capacity....and invest the rest in wafer capacity...

On the positive side it doesn't look like their capex next year will force solf to tap the stock market for cash, I think they can do it all by debt...and obviously the Q-Cells deal was quiet good....I think SOLF becomes interesting somewhere in the area of 12-15 depending on market conditions...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL

PS So if SOLF is undervalued what is TSL???