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dicki31785
73 Comments
Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates
IMO Their is no reason to take attack the guy...if you can do it better open up a blog(or whatever) and write about it...what do you get out of attacking the guy...sorta childish...isn't it?Could have been a nice discussion concerning TSL but instead we are commenting on your rubbish...Another option would have been to give feedback on your analysis that I suppose you did thoroughly...would have been a lot more constructive...but the window of opportunity is still open:)
In any case Trina is a good investment for the long-term(which in this market is about 3-6 months if the market doesnt get crushed otherwise average down the valuations are absurd)...demand for next year will be about 7GW, if y'all would like I can give you an expected breakdown(in MW...I recently updated the demand side and can give you the supply side as well though I did not research the supply side myself but somebody gave it to me and the numbers checked out) market by market, meaning the oversupply will not happen in 2009 as predicted....in 2010 this might be another story but with solar and the rapid advancements that are actually made, more or less, every day in the supply chain anything can happen....With kind regards from Germany CW
Trina Solar Announces Largest U.S. Rooftop Project, 2009 Updates
PS Trader Mark with the current net profit margin, which is likely to expand, Trina is bound to make about 142 millions in 2009...surely have seen worse valuations;):)
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL
Trina Solar: Still Attractive, Despite Stock Decline
www.finanznachrichten....
Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter
Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter
Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter
Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter
182.5x1.5=273.75 is their OWN production....at least that was their guidance(I took the median of 2008 guidance and that x 1.5)....so they produce 273.75 MW...I assume the build one line a Q of 30 MW a piece so lets say they have an average capacity of 420 MW in 2009 and only producing 273.75....which is an utilization of about 65% of their cell capacity...(By year end of 2009 they will have a capacity of 480 MW concerning cells obviously again).....So my only point is maybe they could have made some wiser investment choices....If you believe in those choices, as I assume you do since it sounds like you are long, then see how it works out...
All I am saying their is some risk involved since they are constrained in two parts of their supply chain(poly+wafers) and that is undebatable...so why focus on the part they have plenty off just doesn't make much sense to me...
And mate they said on their call they have good visibility of 200 MW in contracts in 2009 and pre-sold 50 % of that....so in my math, which might be wrong;), that is 100 MW...So my math in the post above is actually wrong if you want to think about the actual capacity ...100MW/420MW=23% utilization...or lets take the "good visibility" 200/420=47%....I am not saying it will happen I am just saying their are some big risks involved....I am more comfortable with my solar investments(CSIQ, TSL + ESLR though ESLR is just a tiny part of the account not really worth mentioning)...but that is obviously ones own choice....And none of those cells as mentioned above are going toward Q-cells as it is just an assembly...not saying that is a bad business, but also consider this Q cells only signed a letter of intent as stated in the call if the market turns(which i dont believe in but one has to take it into account) they might just pull the plug....Just think about it...with kind regards from Germany CW
Solarfun Down Despite Reporting a Strong Quarter
On the positive side it doesn't look like their capex next year will force solf to tap the stock market for cash, I think they can do it all by debt...and obviously the Q-Cells deal was quiet good....I think SOLF becomes interesting somewhere in the area of 12-15 depending on market conditions...with kind regards CW
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL
PS So if SOLF is undervalued what is TSL???
Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year?
Since on June 1st the dollar was worth about 6.95 RMB and now we are at 6.875(sadly enough) but the dollar is seemingly gaining some strength...certainly enough to appreciate vs the Euro, thanks to poor economic data in the EU zone....but can if it can manage to gain vs the RMB is a total different question...with kind regards CW
Trina Solar: Will 2009 Be a Breakout Year?
Though their were a couple very good things in the call and in general the call certainly wasn't bad at all...so the stock IMO can't go much lower might touch the 29 and then turn but certainly very had to predict....
A couple sentences certainly stuck out from Trina's management "Margins could increase in 09 if ASP's decline only by 6-8%"....And to be honest I am very bullish on ASP for next year....I think the decline will go along those lines....which means TSL will expand margins next year....Furthermore I like that they decreased the use of grams per watt from 7.5 to 7.2 (though they were aiming for 7 g/watt as I am looking through my notes from Q1) but I guess that will be reached next Q.....
They also said in the call that they basically cannot keep up with demand(as others said as well such as CSIQ, ESLR, FSLR etc. etc.)....Which also speaks for my theory that ASP's won't come down as much as expected...
And their exposure to Spain is really coming down a lot....from 45-50% in Q 2 to about 18% in the second half of 2008....(I do tend to think that Spain won't introduce such a drastic cap as expected but it is still positive to see the limited exposure to the market....And as I told Jack couple Q's ago Italy is going to be quiet strong....and indeed it is!And Trinas positioning in the Italian market is marvelous and actually other firms would love to have such strong positioning in such a rapidly growing market...
Lastly Poly prices are coming down for Trina by 15% due to long term contracts....(which is about the number you hear from most companies)but still a positive number, I think 2009 will going to be an excellent year...And if Trinas management actually manages to create a positive 1x time surprise next Q this year could be very strong because the valuation is actually quiet ridiculous...but thats what you get for the constant flip-flopping...With kind regards from Germany CW
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR,SSL, TSL
What the Fed's Latest Decision Means for Investors
*inflationary pressure will continue and INTENSIFY
What the Fed's Latest Decision Means for Investors
In any case good article and focusing on real things that are going on (bailouts, monetary policy) instead of Bernake's BS...With kind regards from Germany CW
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
My point was the Demand will be out their next year...and ASP will fall but not as significantly as expected...And the future will tell if we reach grid parity or not...You made your case based on subsidies working well for natural fuels....And saying subsidies for solar do not.....who says subsidies for solar do not work?
In Germany(where I live) we spent the most amount of money on subsidies on the planet and we are quiet happy with them...The average German actually gladly pays a premium for energy if it is clean(wind, solar etc.) compared to coal, gas, and nuclear (yes nuclear doesn't produce CO2 but nuclear waste seems to be quiet an issue if I may point that out)....So you just say subsidies work for fossil fuels and not for renewables based on basically nothing....I can tell you it works and I am happy paying a little premium on the electricity price....In the future we are not as reliant on power and building a solar industry that is creating a significant amount of jobs and solar companies that pay a good chunk of taxes(Though I guess we dish them out again for the subsidies but I think it is beneficial as whole to Germany and the planet)
Furthermore you compare solar to Ethanol....They are not comparable IMO...Solar is here to stay...why do you think the big boys are coming in....Intel for example has entered the industry or GE....The achievable cost reductions are quiet big...Poly for example is the main cost of a panel at the moment …(besides FSLR and a few others)...But with more and more supply hitting the market this will change...and these are not the only cost reductions you can achieve take for example FSLR....they increased their throughput by 5% in one quarter!!! Also there are technologies such as UMG, Pluto, Quad, etc. that can differentiate a stock by leading to faster cost reductions...So to conclude I do not think you are right solar subsidies do not work and solar will achieve grid parity it is just a matter of time….With kind regards from Germany CW
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One
I chose MW installed for the simple reason that all you read about, nowadays, how ASP's for PV are supposed to tumble significantly...thus eroding margins....Since, supposedly, without Spain their is not enough demand leftover to keep the ASP's at an acceptable level...But as one can see from my "chart" Worldwide growth is unstopped....Certainly growth will slow a bit...when the base gets bigger and bigger that is not an unusual phenomena...but if Grid Parity is reached around 2010-2011 demand is endless...In any case that is why I chose MW installed...
Additionally you bring a valid to the surface...I mean why is it alright to subsidize oil and gas in the US but subsidies for renewables are just the devil????Ill tell you why...some have more dollars left over for lobbying than others....But what one doesn't take into account...Is what happens to energy prices when you start trading CO2 emission certificates...because that will be added to the cost of energy....Because with those certificates we are actually quiet a bit closer to grid parity then one would expect...So this is another point one should seriously incorporate into his/her consideration of the future of PV and renewables in general....Because once companies pay for polluting things aren't that easy anymore just ask RWE (German based power company) scrambling to get rid of some of their coal plants or adding renewables to the portfolio in order not pay such a high CO2 bill....with kind regards from Germany CW
SunPower Is a Semi - It Deserves to Be Valued Like One