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dicki31785

dicki31785
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  • Several U.S. retailers have seen a pickup in Z10 returns, says Detwiler Fenton in a note that could be pressuring BlackBerry (BBRY -5.2%). Detwiler, which also issued a downbeat note on Z10 demand last month, adds the pace of returns in some cases is exceeding the pace of sales, and that users are complaining about the Z10's UI, Maps app, and app availability. Separately, Amazon has cut its subsidized Z10 price to $99. (AT&T launch[View news story]
    Well really don't know if that is true. While I have a small sample (7-8 stores in Southwest Florida) and that is surely enough not scientific)). I went into the stores (Verizon, BBY, AT&T) and said "you don't have to sell me anything, I already have a Z10 but what are sales like?". I had some very nice conversations and always tried to talk to the most senior employee.

    I did not hear anything all too impressive but in-line with the 5-10% market share I was looking for in the US. Also they said that the customers who actually bought the phone were quite satisfied with the Z10, as they had to come back for cases and stuff such as that (you can also see that in the reviews on various Website - anybody heard of Amazon?). I don't think they had a reason to lie to me. But as I said this was quite the small sample. One thing I did not like though, Verizon does not even have the update for the Z10 out yet, which adds a good 2-3 hours to the battery life. This is how I spend my vacation ;)
    Apr 11, 2013. 10:53 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar (FSLR +23.8%) guides on its analyst day for 2013 revenue of $3.8B-$4B and EPS of $4-$4.50, far above a consensus of $3.15B and $3.46. Shares have spiked higher on the news, and were shortly halted due to volatility. Other solar names are also surging: SPWR +9.8%. TSL +8.7%. DQ +12.3%. STP +36.1%. LDK +15%. JKS +15.4%. WFR +7.5%. JASO +6.6%. (previous) Update (1:56): First Solar shares are now up 48.2%, and have been halted again. CNNMoney's Paul R. La Monica notes over 1/3 of the float is shorted. "Can you say squeeze?" [View news story]
    Chinese.
    Apr 10, 2013. 12:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Do Short Sellers Feel Lucky? [View article]
    One has to think about it like this in my opinion: Q4 had one month of Z10, Q1 will have almost the full quarter of Z10 sales (but not in the US for ex.) and about a month of the Q10. Q2 will be the first quarter both phones are on the market and for me the MOST important news of the conference call a mid-range phone phone aimed at the Emerging Markets and budget conscious consumers. While the latter is also somewhat important, the former is the kicker. I think that they will be slightly positive (EPS) next quarter and then expect an amazing Q2 report.

    I am really fighting hard with myself not to fall in love with this stock at these prices yet again (long at $10 and $12), but I just don't see where Blackberry can really trip at this point. The phone is awesome and while tech reviews are usually roughly 4/5 stars (in the US in Germany for example mostly 5 stars), the customer reviews are just amazing (word of mouth marketing).

    Check out CNET & Amazon customer reviews for example (not only in your country but look at reviews in Germany/UK/Canada). Once you start swiping you just cannot stop, any other OS is just so incredibly boring afterwards that my old phone is laying in the corner. Sure I would like some more Apps at this point but I believe this will take care of itself in the near future as Blackberry will be a rather big platform.

    Lastly, and probably the most important point why Blackberry is a good investment, BBRY doesn't have to sell 10 million per quarter. Take Blackberry for what it is worth, a 7.5 billion dollar company and not the 80 billion dollar company it used to be.

    With kind regards from Germany,

    Constantin
    Mar 29, 2013. 08:49 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued: Daqo New Energy Is a Buy [View article]
    Poly @$40....I am sure no problem for DQ....right beststockpicker....?

    In Germany their is a saying, "Wenn man keine ahnung hat einfach mal die Fresse halten..."look it up could be a lesson for life in your case...

    If Poly drops below $30-$35 DQ is not looking good...above that everything is good...when the new facility kicks in it can even drop a bit lower....but the margins are going to get squeezed very, very hard...

    With kind regards from Germany,

    CW

    Long DQ
    Oct 13, 2011. 04:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued: Daqo New Energy Is a Buy [View article]
    SOL's CEO expects Polysilicon pricing of $35 in 2012 just FYI smart man - but I am sure the high grade poly that DQ sells will sell for above $50 no matter what ;)

    with kind regards,

    CW
    Aug 9, 2011. 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued: Daqo New Energy Is a Buy [View article]
    hahah love it mate :) You will see sooner or later either way DQ is bound to rise - but you still are not as smart as you think or smart at all for that matter.

    With kind regards from Germany,

    CW
    Jul 29, 2011. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued: Daqo New Energy Is a Buy [View article]
    Poly at 55-60 we may enter that range 2H 2011 currently at around 54 (pv.energytrend.com/), but next year poly will cost less than $50 - probably in between 40-45. You obviously should study supply and demand and if the market isn't over 25-30 GW next year poly will be in oversupply.

    Wafers they will earn some, and Modules will be slightly helping the top line, while pressuring gross margins and not very much supporting the bottom line. DQ is by no means a Tier 1 supplier of Wafers and Modules - you should check out what Tier 2 suppliers get for their wafers and modules certainly isn't much. Nonetheless as I stated above I am optimistic just not $6 in EPS next year that is laughable.
    Jul 29, 2011. 04:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Undervalued: Daqo New Energy Is a Buy [View article]
    I am long myself but what you write is rubbish! PE is not less than 2...we wont earn $3 this year...$2.50 would be a success and 2012 EPS of $6? No way. Maybe $3 which still makes this stock ridiculously cheap, but still your assumptions don't really make sense.

    With kind regards from Germany,

    CW
    Jul 28, 2011. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo New Energy Revises Q2 2011 Earnings Lower [View article]
    Nice article as always - the guidance was indeed a bit tough to read. In my mind this leaves a couple important questions?

    1. Did DQ only produce, wafers and modules that could be sold right away or did they produce an extra amount that will be in inventory for (lets hope) a bigger Q3 and Q4 (as installations are seemingly picking up around the world)...and thus revenue is just carried into the next quarters?! (pricing certainly isn't guaranteed)

    2. Even with the fact that DQ certainly appears to be a tier 2 producer of wafers and modules - couldnt DQ just grab market share with pricing?! DQ is producing Poly at $25-30 producing wafers should not be too expensive when you have input pricing like that. Certainly only producing below 10 MW - if that was the case (see question 1) - will increase costs dramatically...

    but in my mind if you get the 250 MW facility running at full capacity as will hopefully the case by Q4 - with the newest technology (which certainly isn't rocket science if you bought the right equipment) - at those poly costs you can easily grab market share...with growing your bottom line...

    In any case you, or anybody, won't be able to answer those questions. Mgmt will have to do that during their conference call but I think those are two key points.

    with kind regards from Germany,

    CW
    Jul 5, 2011. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is It Time to Short First Solar? [View article]
    Have to agree with Dana. Futhermore, FSLR extended the Contract with VNP.TO (5n Plus - a real interesting play on solar and rare minerals) with better prices that should come into effect throughout the year and future years.

    Nonetheless FSLR is facing some headwinds as Poly is surely falling faster than CdTe prices. But with a balance sheet like First Solars' and a project pipeline I would have a tough time shorting them. Maybe they go down to $100 but at that point I am sure a lot of investors would see FSLR as a bargain (I can already hear the "screams" that it is still much more expensive on a P/E ratio basis than Chinese Solar names - but FSLR is not a Chinese company they have a differentiated business model, a different technology. FSLR is in my opinion not a 100% comparable to TSL, YGE, STP, etc.)

    With kind regards from Germany,

    CW

    ps I am long VNP, I dont hold positions in any other stock mentioned in my post
    Jun 27, 2011. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons to Short Solar ETFs [View article]
    Article comes a bit late, ey?!
    Jun 22, 2011. 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo Tops Earnings Expectations, Faces Pricing Pressure Moving Forward [View article]
    They dont give out that information - they began construction at the end of Q1 (March 29th press release) so after the Q2 conference call we will know more
    Jun 17, 2011. 09:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo Tops Earnings Expectations, Faces Pricing Pressure Moving Forward [View article]
    In the past they have not done a bad job that is true indeed - but Poly and Wafer prices are eroding rapidly (PVINSIGHTS.COM)...my point wasnt that they cant finance it...

    my point was with the current cash on hand they cant finance the 2nd poly facility...thus either generate cash....and if they dont manage to do that they have to borrow or dilute...that was my point
    Jun 17, 2011. 09:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo Tops Earnings Expectations, Faces Pricing Pressure Moving Forward [View article]
    Doubtful they can do that they need to generate more cash from operations, borrow or dilute

    They have around 180 mil cash on hand....CAPEX requiremnts/KG of poly for DQ is around 80$ x 3000 MT facility = $240 mil in CAPEX. Not even counting Wafer/Module expnasion they seem to $60 mil short. So I do agree with you, "some folks definitly need more education before they post."

    With kind regards from Germany,

    CW
    Jun 16, 2011. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Daqo Tops Earnings Expectations, Faces Pricing Pressure Moving Forward [View article]
    Yea sure they have a nice balance sheet when you look at it now - but they still have to fund their whole investments. I doubt they can do that from the cash flows they generate. All these expansions cost money and one has to wonder how they finance those. What will the B/S look like when they are done ramping the 250 MW wafers + 200 MW cells + additional poly capacity. I hope they generate a lot of money from operations, but also use debt instead of diluting shareholders. That will already leave their balance sheet worse off - in the short term at least.

    With kind regards,

    CW
    Jun 15, 2011. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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