dicki31785's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.comuser/170494/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/139803-as-solar-sector-flies-pay-attention-to-values?source=feed#comment-520793 520793
my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW
]]> Thu, 28 May 2009 05:54:05 -0400
my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/136452-rick-s-and-netflix-a-time-to-buy-a-time-to-short?source=feed#comment-496547 496547
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL
]]> Sat, 09 May 2009 06:50:37 -0400
Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131735-solar-development-and-strategic-shifts-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-475265 475265
But I would like to say that I am unsure if FSLR can command that pricing advantage (when taking into consideration the conversion efficency) if polysilicon prices continue to erode....because if we have spot poly prices at around $50 I could imagine FSLR's margins significantly squeezed....Though they are a company that one can just praise....

In solar we always talk about scale....but is that really the right way?FSLR has three different locations of production (Germany, USA and what is it Malaysia or the Philippines....I forgot)....maybe that is the right way to go about innovation...instead of centering everything around one major headquarter....where I suppose you would only have very similar thought processes....

In any case this quarter is going to be a tough one when looking at SPWR's numbers....I for one like the Chinese producers....And I swear on the fully intergrated model...because I think companies like SOL and LDK which more or less just cover a couple of steps in the supply chain are in deep trouble....Maybe LDK and Q-Cells will accomplish something together when pooling their expertise....but I consider companies such as STP and TSL as future winners...TSL is offering the cheapest module on the German market right now....The question is does that speak for their ability to cut production costs or is that done in order to lower inventory levels....I guess we will know when they present numbers...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL]]> Fri, 24 Apr 2009 02:04:56 -0400
But I would like to say that I am unsure if FSLR can command that pricing advantage (when taking into consideration the conversion efficency) if polysilicon prices continue to erode....because if we have spot poly prices at around $50 I could imagine FSLR's margins significantly squeezed....Though they are a company that one can just praise....

In solar we always talk about scale....but is that really the right way?FSLR has three different locations of production (Germany, USA and what is it Malaysia or the Philippines....I forgot)....maybe that is the right way to go about innovation...instead of centering everything around one major headquarter....where I suppose you would only have very similar thought processes....

In any case this quarter is going to be a tough one when looking at SPWR's numbers....I for one like the Chinese producers....And I swear on the fully intergrated model...because I think companies like SOL and LDK which more or less just cover a couple of steps in the supply chain are in deep trouble....Maybe LDK and Q-Cells will accomplish something together when pooling their expertise....but I consider companies such as STP and TSL as future winners...TSL is offering the cheapest module on the German market right now....The question is does that speak for their ability to cut production costs or is that done in order to lower inventory levels....I guess we will know when they present numbers...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131735-solar-development-and-strategic-shifts-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-473779 473779
I don't think at any point of my post I lumped "Americans" together...The only point I wanted to make that Americans are not as educated about Solar in comparison with Germans. I Do not know what that has to with my country's history. (or was it the Iraq comment that got you upset, then I am sorry, but I think that point that the "second gulf war" was for resources is in my humble opinion undebatable).

And that "Americans" are not as knowledgeable in comparisons to Germans is not all too surprising considering we are the leader in PV installations around the world, don't mind Spain's one year of glory, so obviously one would have less understanding in general. Not to say their is not plenty of people out their that have a very fine understanding of the subject matter. But obviously in Germany a lot more people come to see the payoffs, and talk to other people who have already installed PV on their houses, factories, etc. So it was not meant as an insult, just an obvious deduction.

Once a wider range of understanding for the technology comes around PV will be supported much more (check out Gainesville for example with the first feed in tariff, in the US, though it is only 5MW or was it15MW but still....it is a step in the right direction). Especially when you consider the rapid fall in PV prices that we have experienced in the last 6 months. This crisis is, in effect, the biggest opportunity ever for Solar to finally claw itself out of there niche and go mainstream. Poly prices are falling rapidly and are continuing to do so. Bringing about the most rapid cost reductions Solar has ever seen.

PS You absolutely have no class. That was your only comment to the whole post I made, scared of me lumping together "Americans". Pointing to my countries history, instead of focusing on the discussion about solar.

Should I get started on the dictators that you "Americans" placed around S.A. throughout the 20th century (one prominent ex. would be Pinochet) the pain and suffering you "Americans" have caused their. Or should we talk about Vietnam and what crimes were committed their (napalm) or should we just talk about the abuses going on in Iraq NOW, not 60 years ago. I also really like pyramids of naked people mate, or just girls being raped and to cover it up the whole family being killed. Or the 500,000 Iraqis dead in a war for resources.

So please let it go, we are very much so conscious of what happened and are still confronted with the subject more or less every day.

It is comments like that, which only come only from a certain small crowd, why most people around the world can't stand you "Americans" anymore. Being the moral apostle but having "s***" to back it up. Nothing but hot air. You should have just discussed my post instead of worrying about things that have nothing, and absolutely nothing to do with the subject matter.

@Dave Marsch

Thank you, I enjoyed a few great years in the states which helped me learn the language. I am Actually thinking about buying a house again as a holiday destination. I love Florida:).

]]> Thu, 23 Apr 2009 05:24:54 -0400
I don't think at any point of my post I lumped "Americans" together...The only point I wanted to make that Americans are not as educated about Solar in comparison with Germans. I Do not know what that has to with my country's history. (or was it the Iraq comment that got you upset, then I am sorry, but I think that point that the "second gulf war" was for resources is in my humble opinion undebatable).

And that "Americans" are not as knowledgeable in comparisons to Germans is not all too surprising considering we are the leader in PV installations around the world, don't mind Spain's one year of glory, so obviously one would have less understanding in general. Not to say their is not plenty of people out their that have a very fine understanding of the subject matter. But obviously in Germany a lot more people come to see the payoffs, and talk to other people who have already installed PV on their houses, factories, etc. So it was not meant as an insult, just an obvious deduction.

Once a wider range of understanding for the technology comes around PV will be supported much more (check out Gainesville for example with the first feed in tariff, in the US, though it is only 5MW or was it15MW but still....it is a step in the right direction). Especially when you consider the rapid fall in PV prices that we have experienced in the last 6 months. This crisis is, in effect, the biggest opportunity ever for Solar to finally claw itself out of there niche and go mainstream. Poly prices are falling rapidly and are continuing to do so. Bringing about the most rapid cost reductions Solar has ever seen.

PS You absolutely have no class. That was your only comment to the whole post I made, scared of me lumping together "Americans". Pointing to my countries history, instead of focusing on the discussion about solar.

Should I get started on the dictators that you "Americans" placed around S.A. throughout the 20th century (one prominent ex. would be Pinochet) the pain and suffering you "Americans" have caused their. Or should we talk about Vietnam and what crimes were committed their (napalm) or should we just talk about the abuses going on in Iraq NOW, not 60 years ago. I also really like pyramids of naked people mate, or just girls being raped and to cover it up the whole family being killed. Or the 500,000 Iraqis dead in a war for resources.

So please let it go, we are very much so conscious of what happened and are still confronted with the subject more or less every day.

It is comments like that, which only come only from a certain small crowd, why most people around the world can't stand you "Americans" anymore. Being the moral apostle but having "s***" to back it up. Nothing but hot air. You should have just discussed my post instead of worrying about things that have nothing, and absolutely nothing to do with the subject matter.

@Dave Marsch

Thank you, I enjoyed a few great years in the states which helped me learn the language. I am Actually thinking about buying a house again as a holiday destination. I love Florida:).

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131735-solar-development-and-strategic-shifts-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-469310 469310 1. Under point 1 after "still the technology is not ready" the second part of the bracket is missing
2. Under point 2 it reads "oil does".....it should read "oil does not".....(besides its obvious effects on commodities but did not want to get into too much detail because then the post would have been endless...)
3. Just the general reading flow....I guess it doesn't always flow well but I hope you all understand my main points:)...it is after all my 2nd language...]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:26:19 -0400 1. Under point 1 after "still the technology is not ready" the second part of the bracket is missing
2. Under point 2 it reads "oil does".....it should read "oil does not".....(besides its obvious effects on commodities but did not want to get into too much detail because then the post would have been endless...)
3. Just the general reading flow....I guess it doesn't always flow well but I hope you all understand my main points:)...it is after all my 2nd language...]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/131735-solar-development-and-strategic-shifts-in-solar-stocks?source=feed#comment-469307 469307
In any case my main point is that all programs have trouble getting started....The main issue lies of spreading the cost of solar power around OECD countries and a few others that can afford it, everybody has to chip in to get this technology rolling (which is certainly not the case but things are getting better)....And it shouldn't be too hard when one takes a closer look at the costs....

Everybody points at the cost of solar....But I would like to point to three things:


1. The potential of the technology (Now I can already hear the Americans scream but solar started in the 70's but still the technology is not ready...But the potential is huge....All those technologies that have come out just in the last year....Imagine five years from now....though the people that want to survive in the industry have to be ready in 3 yrs max (reach grid parity).

2. The subsidization of oil, coal, etc.l projects (I know oil does have much to do with the price of energy....but that is what people use as a reference and who am I to argue....). I am not even talking about the subsidies now, which are just way absurd to comprehend, but include past subsidies as well...only then do you get the true cost of electricity of today...

3. Future cost of electricity...Whoever thinks that $150 oil was a fluke is going to be surprised concerning the average oil price in the next few years....In the worst recession in a while the oil price is hovering around $50....that is sort of scary isn't it?!

4. Last but surely not least....The political costs of importing energy resources....Whether it being the EU which can't even cough without Russia (gas, oil, etc.) "agreeing", or the US which had to start a war for resources. The political costs are huge, just take a quick look at the US budget, not to mention future costs...(Iran etc.)

In conclusion when one considers all the costs solar is not that expensive....just a long term perspective is necessary....and in late 2009 or early 2010 I think a few companies can already produce at grid parity, even without considering these costs, FSLR and MAYBE a couple others....(Nanosolar?)

With Kind Regards from Germany,

CW

]]> Mon, 20 Apr 2009 06:18:55 -0400
In any case my main point is that all programs have trouble getting started....The main issue lies of spreading the cost of solar power around OECD countries and a few others that can afford it, everybody has to chip in to get this technology rolling (which is certainly not the case but things are getting better)....And it shouldn't be too hard when one takes a closer look at the costs....

Everybody points at the cost of solar....But I would like to point to three things:


1. The potential of the technology (Now I can already hear the Americans scream but solar started in the 70's but still the technology is not ready...But the potential is huge....All those technologies that have come out just in the last year....Imagine five years from now....though the people that want to survive in the industry have to be ready in 3 yrs max (reach grid parity).

2. The subsidization of oil, coal, etc.l projects (I know oil does have much to do with the price of energy....but that is what people use as a reference and who am I to argue....). I am not even talking about the subsidies now, which are just way absurd to comprehend, but include past subsidies as well...only then do you get the true cost of electricity of today...

3. Future cost of electricity...Whoever thinks that $150 oil was a fluke is going to be surprised concerning the average oil price in the next few years....In the worst recession in a while the oil price is hovering around $50....that is sort of scary isn't it?!

4. Last but surely not least....The political costs of importing energy resources....Whether it being the EU which can't even cough without Russia (gas, oil, etc.) "agreeing", or the US which had to start a war for resources. The political costs are huge, just take a quick look at the US budget, not to mention future costs...(Iran etc.)

In conclusion when one considers all the costs solar is not that expensive....just a long term perspective is necessary....and in late 2009 or early 2010 I think a few companies can already produce at grid parity, even without considering these costs, FSLR and MAYBE a couple others....(Nanosolar?)

With Kind Regards from Germany,

CW

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/112741-solarworld-s-asbeck-panel-prices-to-drop-10-in-2009?source=feed#comment-343992 343992 Fri, 02 Jan 2009 06:17:10 -0500 http://seekingalpha.com/article/97178-trina-solar-announces-largest-u-s-rooftop-project-2009-updates?source=feed#comment-264177 264177
IMO Their is no reason to take attack the guy...if you can do it better open up a blog(or whatever) and write about it...what do you get out of attacking the guy...sorta childish...isn't it?Could have been a nice discussion concerning TSL but instead we are commenting on your rubbish...Another option would have been to give feedback on your analysis that I suppose you did thoroughly...would have been a lot more constructive...but the window of opportunity is still open:)

In any case Trina is a good investment for the long-term(which in this market is about 3-6 months if the market doesnt get crushed otherwise average down the valuations are absurd)...demand for next year will be about 7GW, if y'all would like I can give you an expected breakdown(in MW...I recently updated the demand side and can give you the supply side as well though I did not research the supply side myself but somebody gave it to me and the numbers checked out) market by market, meaning the oversupply will not happen in 2009 as predicted....in 2010 this might be another story but with solar and the rapid advancements that are actually made, more or less, every day in the supply chain anything can happen....With kind regards from Germany CW


]]> Wed, 24 Sep 2008 20:01:14 -0400
IMO Their is no reason to take attack the guy...if you can do it better open up a blog(or whatever) and write about it...what do you get out of attacking the guy...sorta childish...isn't it?Could have been a nice discussion concerning TSL but instead we are commenting on your rubbish...Another option would have been to give feedback on your analysis that I suppose you did thoroughly...would have been a lot more constructive...but the window of opportunity is still open:)

In any case Trina is a good investment for the long-term(which in this market is about 3-6 months if the market doesnt get crushed otherwise average down the valuations are absurd)...demand for next year will be about 7GW, if y'all would like I can give you an expected breakdown(in MW...I recently updated the demand side and can give you the supply side as well though I did not research the supply side myself but somebody gave it to me and the numbers checked out) market by market, meaning the oversupply will not happen in 2009 as predicted....in 2010 this might be another story but with solar and the rapid advancements that are actually made, more or less, every day in the supply chain anything can happen....With kind regards from Germany CW


]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/97178-trina-solar-announces-largest-u-s-rooftop-project-2009-updates?source=feed#comment-263987 263987
PS Trader Mark with the current net profit margin, which is likely to expand, Trina is bound to make about 142 millions in 2009...surely have seen worse valuations;):)

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL
]]> Wed, 24 Sep 2008 16:18:47 -0400
PS Trader Mark with the current net profit margin, which is likely to expand, Trina is bound to make about 142 millions in 2009...surely have seen worse valuations;):)

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/96200-trina-solar-still-attractive-despite-stock-decline?source=feed#comment-258478 258478
www.finanznachrichten....]]> Thu, 18 Sep 2008 20:45:33 -0400
www.finanznachrichten....]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93071-solarfun-down-despite-reporting-a-strong-quarter?source=feed#comment-243100 243100 Mon, 01 Sep 2008 10:12:04 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93071-solarfun-down-despite-reporting-a-strong-quarter?source=feed#comment-241148 241148 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:44:17 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93071-solarfun-down-despite-reporting-a-strong-quarter?source=feed#comment-241147 241147 Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:43:56 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/93071-solarfun-down-despite-reporting-a-strong-quarter?source=feed#comment-241123 241123
182.5x1.5=273.75 is their OWN production....at least that was their guidance(I took the median of 2008 guidance and that x 1.5)....so they produce 273.75 MW...I assume the build one line a Q of 30 MW a piece so lets say they have an average capacity of 420 MW in 2009 and only producing 273.75....which is an utilization of about 65% of their cell capacity...(By year end of 2009 they will have a capacity of 480 MW concerning cells obviously again).....So my only point is maybe they could have made some wiser investment choices....If you believe in those choices, as I assume you do since it sounds like you are long, then see how it works out...

All I am saying their is some risk involved since they are constrained in two parts of their supply chain(poly+wafers) and that is undebatable...so why focus on the part they have plenty off just doesn't make much sense to me...

And mate they said on their call they have good visibility of 200 MW in contracts in 2009 and pre-sold 50 % of that....so in my math, which might be wrong;), that is 100 MW...So my math in the post above is actually wrong if you want to think about the actual capacity ...100MW/420MW=23% utilization...or lets take the "good visibility" 200/420=47%....I am not saying it will happen I am just saying their are some big risks involved....I am more comfortable with my solar investments(CSIQ, TSL + ESLR though ESLR is just a tiny part of the account not really worth mentioning)...but that is obviously ones own choice....And none of those cells as mentioned above are going toward Q-cells as it is just an assembly...not saying that is a bad business, but also consider this Q cells only signed a letter of intent as stated in the call if the market turns(which i dont believe in but one has to take it into account) they might just pull the plug....Just think about it...with kind regards from Germany CW
]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 16:05:30 -0400
182.5x1.5=273.75 is their OWN production....at least that was their guidance(I took the median of 2008 guidance and that x 1.5)....so they produce 273.75 MW...I assume the build one line a Q of 30 MW a piece so lets say they have an average capacity of 420 MW in 2009 and only producing 273.75....which is an utilization of about 65% of their cell capacity...(By year end of 2009 they will have a capacity of 480 MW concerning cells obviously again).....So my only point is maybe they could have made some wiser investment choices....If you believe in those choices, as I assume you do since it sounds like you are long, then see how it works out...

All I am saying their is some risk involved since they are constrained in two parts of their supply chain(poly+wafers) and that is undebatable...so why focus on the part they have plenty off just doesn't make much sense to me...

And mate they said on their call they have good visibility of 200 MW in contracts in 2009 and pre-sold 50 % of that....so in my math, which might be wrong;), that is 100 MW...So my math in the post above is actually wrong if you want to think about the actual capacity ...100MW/420MW=23% utilization...or lets take the "good visibility" 200/420=47%....I am not saying it will happen I am just saying their are some big risks involved....I am more comfortable with my solar investments(CSIQ, TSL + ESLR though ESLR is just a tiny part of the account not really worth mentioning)...but that is obviously ones own choice....And none of those cells as mentioned above are going toward Q-cells as it is just an assembly...not saying that is a bad business, but also consider this Q cells only signed a letter of intent as stated in the call if the market turns(which i dont believe in but one has to take it into account) they might just pull the plug....Just think about it...with kind regards from Germany CW
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/93071-solarfun-down-despite-reporting-a-strong-quarter?source=feed#comment-240831 240831
On the positive side it doesn't look like their capex next year will force solf to tap the stock market for cash, I think they can do it all by debt...and obviously the Q-Cells deal was quiet good....I think SOLF becomes interesting somewhere in the area of 12-15 depending on market conditions...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL

PS So if SOLF is undervalued what is TSL???]]> Thu, 28 Aug 2008 10:20:14 -0400
On the positive side it doesn't look like their capex next year will force solf to tap the stock market for cash, I think they can do it all by debt...and obviously the Q-Cells deal was quiet good....I think SOLF becomes interesting somewhere in the area of 12-15 depending on market conditions...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL

PS So if SOLF is undervalued what is TSL???]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91448-trina-solar-will-2009-be-a-breakout-year?source=feed#comment-233153 233153
Since on June 1st the dollar was worth about 6.95 RMB and now we are at 6.875(sadly enough) but the dollar is seemingly gaining some strength...certainly enough to appreciate vs the Euro, thanks to poor economic data in the EU zone....but can if it can manage to gain vs the RMB is a total different question...with kind regards CW]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:42:28 -0400
Since on June 1st the dollar was worth about 6.95 RMB and now we are at 6.875(sadly enough) but the dollar is seemingly gaining some strength...certainly enough to appreciate vs the Euro, thanks to poor economic data in the EU zone....but can if it can manage to gain vs the RMB is a total different question...with kind regards CW]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/91448-trina-solar-will-2009-be-a-breakout-year?source=feed#comment-233133 233133
Though their were a couple very good things in the call and in general the call certainly wasn't bad at all...so the stock IMO can't go much lower might touch the 29 and then turn but certainly very had to predict....

A couple sentences certainly stuck out from Trina's management "Margins could increase in 09 if ASP's decline only by 6-8%"....And to be honest I am very bullish on ASP for next year....I think the decline will go along those lines....which means TSL will expand margins next year....Furthermore I like that they decreased the use of grams per watt from 7.5 to 7.2 (though they were aiming for 7 g/watt as I am looking through my notes from Q1) but I guess that will be reached next Q.....

They also said in the call that they basically cannot keep up with demand(as others said as well such as CSIQ, ESLR, FSLR etc. etc.)....Which also speaks for my theory that ASP's won't come down as much as expected...

And their exposure to Spain is really coming down a lot....from 45-50% in Q 2 to about 18% in the second half of 2008....(I do tend to think that Spain won't introduce such a drastic cap as expected but it is still positive to see the limited exposure to the market....And as I told Jack couple Q's ago Italy is going to be quiet strong....and indeed it is!And Trinas positioning in the Italian market is marvelous and actually other firms would love to have such strong positioning in such a rapidly growing market...

Lastly Poly prices are coming down for Trina by 15% due to long term contracts....(which is about the number you hear from most companies)but still a positive number, I think 2009 will going to be an excellent year...And if Trinas management actually manages to create a positive 1x time surprise next Q this year could be very strong because the valuation is actually quiet ridiculous...but thats what you get for the constant flip-flopping...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR,SSL, TSL]]> Mon, 18 Aug 2008 11:21:32 -0400
Though their were a couple very good things in the call and in general the call certainly wasn't bad at all...so the stock IMO can't go much lower might touch the 29 and then turn but certainly very had to predict....

A couple sentences certainly stuck out from Trina's management "Margins could increase in 09 if ASP's decline only by 6-8%"....And to be honest I am very bullish on ASP for next year....I think the decline will go along those lines....which means TSL will expand margins next year....Furthermore I like that they decreased the use of grams per watt from 7.5 to 7.2 (though they were aiming for 7 g/watt as I am looking through my notes from Q1) but I guess that will be reached next Q.....

They also said in the call that they basically cannot keep up with demand(as others said as well such as CSIQ, ESLR, FSLR etc. etc.)....Which also speaks for my theory that ASP's won't come down as much as expected...

And their exposure to Spain is really coming down a lot....from 45-50% in Q 2 to about 18% in the second half of 2008....(I do tend to think that Spain won't introduce such a drastic cap as expected but it is still positive to see the limited exposure to the market....And as I told Jack couple Q's ago Italy is going to be quiet strong....and indeed it is!And Trinas positioning in the Italian market is marvelous and actually other firms would love to have such strong positioning in such a rapidly growing market...

Lastly Poly prices are coming down for Trina by 15% due to long term contracts....(which is about the number you hear from most companies)but still a positive number, I think 2009 will going to be an excellent year...And if Trinas management actually manages to create a positive 1x time surprise next Q this year could be very strong because the valuation is actually quiet ridiculous...but thats what you get for the constant flip-flopping...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR,SSL, TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89408-what-the-fed-s-latest-decision-means-for-investors?source=feed#comment-223797 223797 *inflationary pressure will continue and INTENSIFY]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 08:12:12 -0400 *inflationary pressure will continue and INTENSIFY]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/89408-what-the-fed-s-latest-decision-means-for-investors?source=feed#comment-223796 223796
In any case good article and focusing on real things that are going on (bailouts, monetary policy) instead of Bernake's BS...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> Wed, 06 Aug 2008 08:11:18 -0400
In any case good article and focusing on real things that are going on (bailouts, monetary policy) instead of Bernake's BS...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88766-sunpower-is-a-semi-it-deserves-to-be-valued-like-one?source=feed#comment-223272 223272
My point was the Demand will be out their next year...and ASP will fall but not as significantly as expected...And the future will tell if we reach grid parity or not...You made your case based on subsidies working well for natural fuels....And saying subsidies for solar do not.....who says subsidies for solar do not work?

In Germany(where I live) we spent the most amount of money on subsidies on the planet and we are quiet happy with them...The average German actually gladly pays a premium for energy if it is clean(wind, solar etc.) compared to coal, gas, and nuclear (yes nuclear doesn't produce CO2 but nuclear waste seems to be quiet an issue if I may point that out)....So you just say subsidies work for fossil fuels and not for renewables based on basically nothing....I can tell you it works and I am happy paying a little premium on the electricity price....In the future we are not as reliant on power and building a solar industry that is creating a significant amount of jobs and solar companies that pay a good chunk of taxes(Though I guess we dish them out again for the subsidies but I think it is beneficial as whole to Germany and the planet)

Furthermore you compare solar to Ethanol....They are not comparable IMO...Solar is here to stay...why do you think the big boys are coming in....Intel for example has entered the industry or GE....The achievable cost reductions are quiet big...Poly for example is the main cost of a panel at the moment …(besides FSLR and a few others)...But with more and more supply hitting the market this will change...and these are not the only cost reductions you can achieve take for example FSLR....they increased their throughput by 5% in one quarter!!! Also there are technologies such as UMG, Pluto, Quad, etc. that can differentiate a stock by leading to faster cost reductions...So to conclude I do not think you are right solar subsidies do not work and solar will achieve grid parity it is just a matter of time….With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL
]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 12:47:17 -0400
My point was the Demand will be out their next year...and ASP will fall but not as significantly as expected...And the future will tell if we reach grid parity or not...You made your case based on subsidies working well for natural fuels....And saying subsidies for solar do not.....who says subsidies for solar do not work?

In Germany(where I live) we spent the most amount of money on subsidies on the planet and we are quiet happy with them...The average German actually gladly pays a premium for energy if it is clean(wind, solar etc.) compared to coal, gas, and nuclear (yes nuclear doesn't produce CO2 but nuclear waste seems to be quiet an issue if I may point that out)....So you just say subsidies work for fossil fuels and not for renewables based on basically nothing....I can tell you it works and I am happy paying a little premium on the electricity price....In the future we are not as reliant on power and building a solar industry that is creating a significant amount of jobs and solar companies that pay a good chunk of taxes(Though I guess we dish them out again for the subsidies but I think it is beneficial as whole to Germany and the planet)

Furthermore you compare solar to Ethanol....They are not comparable IMO...Solar is here to stay...why do you think the big boys are coming in....Intel for example has entered the industry or GE....The achievable cost reductions are quiet big...Poly for example is the main cost of a panel at the moment …(besides FSLR and a few others)...But with more and more supply hitting the market this will change...and these are not the only cost reductions you can achieve take for example FSLR....they increased their throughput by 5% in one quarter!!! Also there are technologies such as UMG, Pluto, Quad, etc. that can differentiate a stock by leading to faster cost reductions...So to conclude I do not think you are right solar subsidies do not work and solar will achieve grid parity it is just a matter of time….With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88766-sunpower-is-a-semi-it-deserves-to-be-valued-like-one?source=feed#comment-223012 223012
I chose MW installed for the simple reason that all you read about, nowadays, how ASP's for PV are supposed to tumble significantly...thus eroding margins....Since, supposedly, without Spain their is not enough demand leftover to keep the ASP's at an acceptable level...But as one can see from my "chart" Worldwide growth is unstopped....Certainly growth will slow a bit...when the base gets bigger and bigger that is not an unusual phenomena...but if Grid Parity is reached around 2010-2011 demand is endless...In any case that is why I chose MW installed...

Additionally you bring a valid to the surface...I mean why is it alright to subsidize oil and gas in the US but subsidies for renewables are just the devil????Ill tell you why...some have more dollars left over for lobbying than others....But what one doesn't take into account...Is what happens to energy prices when you start trading CO2 emission certificates...because that will be added to the cost of energy....Because with those certificates we are actually quiet a bit closer to grid parity then one would expect...So this is another point one should seriously incorporate into his/her consideration of the future of PV and renewables in general....Because once companies pay for polluting things aren't that easy anymore just ask RWE (German based power company) scrambling to get rid of some of their coal plants or adding renewables to the portfolio in order not pay such a high CO2 bill....with kind regards from Germany CW

]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 09:07:57 -0400
I chose MW installed for the simple reason that all you read about, nowadays, how ASP's for PV are supposed to tumble significantly...thus eroding margins....Since, supposedly, without Spain their is not enough demand leftover to keep the ASP's at an acceptable level...But as one can see from my "chart" Worldwide growth is unstopped....Certainly growth will slow a bit...when the base gets bigger and bigger that is not an unusual phenomena...but if Grid Parity is reached around 2010-2011 demand is endless...In any case that is why I chose MW installed...

Additionally you bring a valid to the surface...I mean why is it alright to subsidize oil and gas in the US but subsidies for renewables are just the devil????Ill tell you why...some have more dollars left over for lobbying than others....But what one doesn't take into account...Is what happens to energy prices when you start trading CO2 emission certificates...because that will be added to the cost of energy....Because with those certificates we are actually quiet a bit closer to grid parity then one would expect...So this is another point one should seriously incorporate into his/her consideration of the future of PV and renewables in general....Because once companies pay for polluting things aren't that easy anymore just ask RWE (German based power company) scrambling to get rid of some of their coal plants or adding renewables to the portfolio in order not pay such a high CO2 bill....with kind regards from Germany CW

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/88766-sunpower-is-a-semi-it-deserves-to-be-valued-like-one?source=feed#comment-222910 222910 Tue, 05 Aug 2008 06:10:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/88766-sunpower-is-a-semi-it-deserves-to-be-valued-like-one?source=feed#comment-222907 222907 So Here we go:

Worldwide In MW 2009
World= 4783-6778(15.3%-63.4% Growth) =Median(60 % Bad Scenario 40% G.S =5581.0
Worldwide In MW 2008
World= 3905-4147(43.4%-52.3% Growth) =Median(50%/50%)
=4025.5
Worldwide In MW 2007
World= 2722.53


2009 Other than EU in MW
Japan 500
USA 800 - 1000
China 50 - 70
India 50 - 70
South Korea 200 - 300
Israel 30 - 50
=
1630 – 1990 (75.2%- 113.9%)
2008 Other than EU in MW
Japan 300
USA 400
China 25
India 100
South Korea 100
Israel 5
=
930 (60.6% Growth)
2007 Other than EU in MW
Japan 230
USA 259
China 20
India 20
South Korea 50
Israel 0
=
579



2009 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 2000- 2500
Spain 300-950
Italy 300-400
France 200-350
GB 5-10
Czech Rep. 50
Swiss 10 (New Solar Subsidy in place)
Portugal 40-60
Greece 100-300 (2 GW in the pipeline)
Belgium 40-50
Netherlands 8
Rest of EU 100
=
3153-4788 (if 2975 MW were installed in 2008 then 5.9%-60.9% Growth if 3217 MW were installed then -2%-48% growth)

2008 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 1600
Spain 1000-1200
Italy 120- 150
Portugal 30
France 100
Swiss 3
GB 3-5
Czech Rep. 20
Austria 4
Greece 50
Belgium 20-30
Netherlands 4
Cyprus 1
Rest of Europe 20
=
2975-3217 (38.7-50 % Growth)


2007 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 1328
Spain 640
Italy 90
Portugal 14
France 50
Swiss 2
GB 3.4
Czech Rep. 3.1
Austria 3.01
Greece 3
Belgium 2
Netherlands 2.30
Cyprus 0.72
=
2141.53
Rest of Europe 2
=
Total 2143.53
]]> Tue, 05 Aug 2008 06:02:54 -0400 So Here we go:

Worldwide In MW 2009
World= 4783-6778(15.3%-63.4% Growth) =Median(60 % Bad Scenario 40% G.S =5581.0
Worldwide In MW 2008
World= 3905-4147(43.4%-52.3% Growth) =Median(50%/50%)
=4025.5
Worldwide In MW 2007
World= 2722.53


2009 Other than EU in MW
Japan 500
USA 800 - 1000
China 50 - 70
India 50 - 70
South Korea 200 - 300
Israel 30 - 50
=
1630 – 1990 (75.2%- 113.9%)
2008 Other than EU in MW
Japan 300
USA 400
China 25
India 100
South Korea 100
Israel 5
=
930 (60.6% Growth)
2007 Other than EU in MW
Japan 230
USA 259
China 20
India 20
South Korea 50
Israel 0
=
579



2009 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 2000- 2500
Spain 300-950
Italy 300-400
France 200-350
GB 5-10
Czech Rep. 50
Swiss 10 (New Solar Subsidy in place)
Portugal 40-60
Greece 100-300 (2 GW in the pipeline)
Belgium 40-50
Netherlands 8
Rest of EU 100
=
3153-4788 (if 2975 MW were installed in 2008 then 5.9%-60.9% Growth if 3217 MW were installed then -2%-48% growth)

2008 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 1600
Spain 1000-1200
Italy 120- 150
Portugal 30
France 100
Swiss 3
GB 3-5
Czech Rep. 20
Austria 4
Greece 50
Belgium 20-30
Netherlands 4
Cyprus 1
Rest of Europe 20
=
2975-3217 (38.7-50 % Growth)


2007 Solar Installations in the EU (inc. SUI) in MW

Germany 1328
Spain 640
Italy 90
Portugal 14
France 50
Swiss 2
GB 3.4
Czech Rep. 3.1
Austria 3.01
Greece 3
Belgium 2
Netherlands 2.30
Cyprus 0.72
=
2141.53
Rest of Europe 2
=
Total 2143.53
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87767-flummoxed-by-solar-market-action?source=feed#comment-218177 218177
2007 1545.19 MW
2008 2190-2290 MW (41.0%-48.2% growth)
2009 2510-4000 MW (14.6%-82.6% growth)

2009 Their is certainly a lot of uncertainty as one can see by that huge low(2510) to high estimate(4000) difference of 1490 MW. The low number of 2510 is including the 300 MW scenario for Spain. And quiet the low Germany estimate of 1.3 GW of PV....And also very conservative estimates concerning France and Italy....Showing even with those estimates included their would still be growth in the EU zone of 14.6%...and then consider that worldwide subsidies will greatly expand and then you still have at a bare minimum growth rates of 20-25% and that is the worst case scenario....

So I feel pretty good about the sector at the moment actually...kept on buying CSIQ and TSL and diversified a little bit so I am pretty much strapped for cash in the short term...but I think solars may have found a bottom and if FSLR presents well after hours today....this could be a well deserved good week in the sector and maybe a start of a bull run if Spain announces something before their summer holiday....with kind regards CW
]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 08:44:08 -0400
2007 1545.19 MW
2008 2190-2290 MW (41.0%-48.2% growth)
2009 2510-4000 MW (14.6%-82.6% growth)

2009 Their is certainly a lot of uncertainty as one can see by that huge low(2510) to high estimate(4000) difference of 1490 MW. The low number of 2510 is including the 300 MW scenario for Spain. And quiet the low Germany estimate of 1.3 GW of PV....And also very conservative estimates concerning France and Italy....Showing even with those estimates included their would still be growth in the EU zone of 14.6%...and then consider that worldwide subsidies will greatly expand and then you still have at a bare minimum growth rates of 20-25% and that is the worst case scenario....

So I feel pretty good about the sector at the moment actually...kept on buying CSIQ and TSL and diversified a little bit so I am pretty much strapped for cash in the short term...but I think solars may have found a bottom and if FSLR presents well after hours today....this could be a well deserved good week in the sector and maybe a start of a bull run if Spain announces something before their summer holiday....with kind regards CW
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/87767-flummoxed-by-solar-market-action?source=feed#comment-218041 218041
Interesting view on California...but i wouldn't count on that yet....I am pretty cautious concerning your view considering in 2007 the US in total installed, depending on estimates, 150 MW....and to reach Germany, Cali would have to install 1,3 GW(2007 data).....Their is still huge steps to be done until 2011...But that California is ideal for solar power is undebatable...

Dear Jack...I Turned out to be pretty correct concerning Italy...I expect about 300 MW-400 MW out of them next year and 500-600 MW in 2010....Greece has a huge backlog for subsidies about 2 GW of PV projects applied for subsidies...So watch for that country in the next months...they need to just eliminate all those bureaucratic problems to get those things installed and you have another huge market with 300 MW annually....Though Greece's solar renewable targets are set quiet low as of now...but that will change as of next year...

It is quiet tough to see where we are going in 2009...But I have been working hard the last couple of days to get a good estimate for 2009(at least for Europe)...Still not through all the countries but it is looking nowhere as gloomy as expected...All this Spain hype is so grossly overdone IMO(As also the installed 1.1 GW for 2008...Maybe cumulative but certainly didn't install that much IMO but that is more of a guessing game at this point)...As I said I am not through but as of now I can imagine a growth rate of 20% just for EUROPE not the world...Ill let you know country by country what I expect in a couple of days if you are interested...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> Wed, 30 Jul 2008 04:27:07 -0400
Interesting view on California...but i wouldn't count on that yet....I am pretty cautious concerning your view considering in 2007 the US in total installed, depending on estimates, 150 MW....and to reach Germany, Cali would have to install 1,3 GW(2007 data).....Their is still huge steps to be done until 2011...But that California is ideal for solar power is undebatable...

Dear Jack...I Turned out to be pretty correct concerning Italy...I expect about 300 MW-400 MW out of them next year and 500-600 MW in 2010....Greece has a huge backlog for subsidies about 2 GW of PV projects applied for subsidies...So watch for that country in the next months...they need to just eliminate all those bureaucratic problems to get those things installed and you have another huge market with 300 MW annually....Though Greece's solar renewable targets are set quiet low as of now...but that will change as of next year...

It is quiet tough to see where we are going in 2009...But I have been working hard the last couple of days to get a good estimate for 2009(at least for Europe)...Still not through all the countries but it is looking nowhere as gloomy as expected...All this Spain hype is so grossly overdone IMO(As also the installed 1.1 GW for 2008...Maybe cumulative but certainly didn't install that much IMO but that is more of a guessing game at this point)...As I said I am not through but as of now I can imagine a growth rate of 20% just for EUROPE not the world...Ill let you know country by country what I expect in a couple of days if you are interested...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85955-in-the-battle-of-best-solar-plays-u-s-is-a-distant-second?source=feed#comment-214072 214072
To SPWR...If you look at present numbers obviously 28 million net income is not enough for that valuation....but as we all now the stock markets incorporates in its valuation the future....And SPWR is actually quiet well managed and if it goes back down to $60 a strong buy....SPWR strategy relies on buying sales offices in expanding solar markets(Italy, Australia....etc.etc.) and thus gaining solid traction in these markets...The Spanish subsidy cuts I already have discussed and surely won't be as severe as expected, though it is about time Spains gov't clears up the situation so companies can plan better...and a lot of uncertainty which is surrounding solar stocks presently would be gone...Well my point was SPWR won't go down to the 20's....as they always say buy when the mood is the worst...and for solar stocks the outlook is pretty gloomy, predominantly, right now so it could be a buying opportunity...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL,TSL]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 07:49:47 -0400
To SPWR...If you look at present numbers obviously 28 million net income is not enough for that valuation....but as we all now the stock markets incorporates in its valuation the future....And SPWR is actually quiet well managed and if it goes back down to $60 a strong buy....SPWR strategy relies on buying sales offices in expanding solar markets(Italy, Australia....etc.etc.) and thus gaining solid traction in these markets...The Spanish subsidy cuts I already have discussed and surely won't be as severe as expected, though it is about time Spains gov't clears up the situation so companies can plan better...and a lot of uncertainty which is surrounding solar stocks presently would be gone...Well my point was SPWR won't go down to the 20's....as they always say buy when the mood is the worst...and for solar stocks the outlook is pretty gloomy, predominantly, right now so it could be a buying opportunity...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL,TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/86104-sunpower-beaten-up-to-buying-opportunity-levels?source=feed#comment-214069 214069
Concerning SPWR...for the long-term SPWR is always a buy at around 60...Really nice management...really nice panels(best efficiency industry wide)...but does have some valuation issues...but at around 60 I personally wouldn't mind the valuation issues anymore....It is certainly not as bad as FSLR valuation I really do not get why that stock is liked so much...Their panels have some serious issues, concerning the longer term, and the valuation is just absurd....With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> Fri, 25 Jul 2008 07:44:20 -0400
Concerning SPWR...for the long-term SPWR is always a buy at around 60...Really nice management...really nice panels(best efficiency industry wide)...but does have some valuation issues...but at around 60 I personally wouldn't mind the valuation issues anymore....It is certainly not as bad as FSLR valuation I really do not get why that stock is liked so much...Their panels have some serious issues, concerning the longer term, and the valuation is just absurd....With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85955-in-the-battle-of-best-solar-plays-u-s-is-a-distant-second?source=feed#comment-210683 210683
Since other countries are putting bigger subsides online such as Korea, Italy, Switzerland etc. etc.......It is only natural the countries with already a lot of PV cut their subsidies a bit while prices are coming down....and countries still lagging behind are bringing programs online....So the subsidies in Europe are much more stable and EXPANDING even with the Spain factor(Not even to mention worldwide subsidies which are increasing as well)....And if an American program ever does come around, in a large scale, it will help that much more....Including other countries such as China, Great Britian, Greek (once they focus on solar expect this to be a HUGE market), India, France, etc. etc. etc.

In any case my point is that Germany and Spain lowering their Subsidies is normal, if Spain does not overdue it, since the costs are coming down and thus not that high amount of subsidies is needed to keep demand for Solar high!In Germany we for example we expect a significant increase in solar installations, despite the 8% decrease in subsides. With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 12:06:05 -0400
Since other countries are putting bigger subsides online such as Korea, Italy, Switzerland etc. etc.......It is only natural the countries with already a lot of PV cut their subsidies a bit while prices are coming down....and countries still lagging behind are bringing programs online....So the subsidies in Europe are much more stable and EXPANDING even with the Spain factor(Not even to mention worldwide subsidies which are increasing as well)....And if an American program ever does come around, in a large scale, it will help that much more....Including other countries such as China, Great Britian, Greek (once they focus on solar expect this to be a HUGE market), India, France, etc. etc. etc.

In any case my point is that Germany and Spain lowering their Subsidies is normal, if Spain does not overdue it, since the costs are coming down and thus not that high amount of subsidies is needed to keep demand for Solar high!In Germany we for example we expect a significant increase in solar installations, despite the 8% decrease in subsides. With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/85955-in-the-battle-of-best-solar-plays-u-s-is-a-distant-second?source=feed#comment-210560 210560 Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:21:47 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/85955-in-the-battle-of-best-solar-plays-u-s-is-a-distant-second?source=feed#comment-210557 210557
Concerning the three stocks FSLR will be eaten alive, I mean just destroyed...I would be quiet surprised if they manage to ever see their ATH again....(but they got major support from the institutional investors) I do not believe in thin film(poor efficiency but cheaper thats not enough)....also the Telleraium issue....Their advantage will be eaten up in no-time if a lot of Poly becomes available...

SPWR I like due to its management....ESLR I just bought after Q2 results....The Quad technology is quiet nice and the stock will explode when the first solid earnings come in sight.(Probably Q4 2008-Q1 2009)...But in summary they are just quiet expensive with no advantage that justifies their premium to Chinese counterparts(yet)........ why my main solar holdings are in CSIQ and TSL...

They took care of their financing problems....and it looks like they might have found a bottom....With Kind regards from Germany
CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]> Mon, 21 Jul 2008 10:20:22 -0400
Concerning the three stocks FSLR will be eaten alive, I mean just destroyed...I would be quiet surprised if they manage to ever see their ATH again....(but they got major support from the institutional investors) I do not believe in thin film(poor efficiency but cheaper thats not enough)....also the Telleraium issue....Their advantage will be eaten up in no-time if a lot of Poly becomes available...

SPWR I like due to its management....ESLR I just bought after Q2 results....The Quad technology is quiet nice and the stock will explode when the first solid earnings come in sight.(Probably Q4 2008-Q1 2009)...But in summary they are just quiet expensive with no advantage that justifies their premium to Chinese counterparts(yet)........ why my main solar holdings are in CSIQ and TSL...

They took care of their financing problems....and it looks like they might have found a bottom....With Kind regards from Germany
CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL]]>