dicki31785

Canadian Solar Should Continue to Head Higher

@Van Gastel

About German solar stocks you are more than right. These companies were, and are, just sleeping....I mean when i see these companies are already paying dividends instead of investing in solar panels or in corporate offices in Italy, USA, India, China etc or in more production lines(which based in Germany just cost a sh** load of money)....if they would have invested all that money into efficiency...efficienc... of 25% wouldn't be a problem at all at this point but they did not and where is the competitive advantage....in labor costs;)I dont think so

Sure oil fluctuations happen in the short term and could depress those stocks but in the short and long term i do not see it happening...anywhere in between i am open for arguments:)

Concerning CSIQ,.61 cents this quarter....and with the UMG's you will see a three and i am pretty confident about that...would i invest in CSIQ right now at 44$ not so much but if it hits the 35-40 range it becomes very interesting again I sold at $33...and in the chart their is a HUGE gap maybe it will be closed who knows...but i really think the very least they do is earn .61 4x...which brings us to 2.44 for the year...the dollar wont appreciate that fast especially if you look the numbers of the German economy today...all i can say is WOW....the dollar is going to have a tough time because with those numbers from the German Economy nobody can lower interest rates in the EU as much as Sarko and Berlo would like that...but its just not happening....which is an additional factor why oil will stay high in the short term....

I have never heard of Millenium Solar...but i also would like to know more about nanosolar...Kind regards CW

Canadian Solar Should Continue to Head Higher

I agree with you on some parts Van Gastel...Also I listenend to jack concerning CSIQ and made a bunch and right now I am long TSL, STP, and ABX....but CSIQ is quiet solid they will earn around 3$ this year which puts them at a P/E of about 14 which is still quiet cheap for a growth stock such as CSIQ. Even when the PE is 20 that makes the stock be worth 60$ so their is some upside.

And i think the stock will continue running higher...but surely not as cheap as it used to be....I believe Jack myself he found a hot stock again, I checked out a bunch concerning TSL, and I am going to double my position today that i started building yesterday. The solar sector is hot right now and the strong Euro makes the reporting for companies which do not produce in the EU quiet "easy". Meaning that can improve their margins significantly without even having to anything better at all.

But an oil price under a hunderd mate, no way. That is wishful thinking...well i presonally dont care for me it can reach 200 hunderd I am mostly invested in solar stocks and the oil run up doesnt hurt me nor my investments.

The real issues are the incentives the oil price is secondary...surely 60$ oil wouldnt be good for solar but it is just not going to happen...their has to be more incentives in the world. Spain and Germany cannot do most of the work...those are only two markets and these markets also have limits...So that is the real risk the recejection of incentives(or them being to small) in the US, China, Italy, UK, Greece, Australia, France, India and many other...with kind regards from Germany CW

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

valuations not production costs

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

@Jack

First thanks for all the info. It is very much appreciated. I looked up a lot about TSL throughout the day, and also thanks to your info, i feel pretty good about my investment. Bought a nice chunck at 44.50 today, and looking to double that position tommorow....The valuation is absolutly absurd, as it was with CSIQ, and at those valuations it is almost impossible to say no to growth (solar) companies such as TSL. And both have(had) profitable growth and in the end have lower production costs than German companies(and also do not understand why those companies pay dividends when they could build the "mercedes of solar" but that is off topic)and other solar companies....

I am really looking forward to earnings and at these valuations the downside risk seems pretty "limited", which is also never bad. The prospects of the company look quiet good. Lets see if it works out. Kind regards CW

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

Dear Jack,

Perfect analysis....concerning the oil...as i wrote last week, as well i think in the fslr article, i would be quiet suprised if we ever see double digits again....

FSLR certainly is too pricy espically with that lack of disclousre concerning tellarium....but what kind of panels does TSL produce i mean what is their efficency since it is polysilicon they use otherwise they wouldnt have considered the plant(but that is scraped now anyways) which was a good sign for tsl and everybody using poly actually....i read through your article from the 23rd....but couldnt find anything in their....the stock looks really cheap from a growth stock standpoint lets say they earn 3.11 which is consensus at the moment...would still only be a PE about 13.XX...looked at their suppliers...that looks pretty solid...but i would like some extra info...i saw that Q4 margins were signifcantly better than before...due to what?also saw they barely carry any debt...does that mean they always go to equity when they are in need of money?can they already cover their expenses or is dillution in sight?i know it is a lot to ask for but maybe a little paragraph or two on TSL would be much appreciated...To csiq if they close that gap at 35 i am buying that again...but right now after I sold my csiq shares I am at around 80% cash and need some investments...because my position in STP is not really doing its job adequatly....and my Gold shares were just bought last week for a little hedge if the economy stutters more than expected and and inflation still grows...because that inflation(growth) data which nobody seems to care about is pretty worrisome in my eyes....well thank you very much in advance kind regards from across the pond CW

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

premarket plus 22% so i think out of us three you were the only one who hit the jackpot...kind regards CW

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

@Jack didn't buy it at 18.53 but bought it at 20 sold at 25 then
bought it again at 24 and sold at 33.xx so not quiet hundred percent but still a great great return:)...and as VP said without you never would have hear from that small firm an given me the chance to do that research to fell comfortable with the investment...thanks

To incentives...In Germany 9% down and a one time cut of one euro cent....is the very minimum incentives will go down in 2009 their is no doubt about that...and of the top off my head i think Spain said that once they reach 500 MW they are going down 5% annually...which is all still bearable...
But since it is only two markets that got going significantly so far other countries demand could pick up the slack...And also read about India and China that they see it as their big chance to get electricity to rural areas where they are not connected to the grid....
Also don't get me wrong I think incentives will be their at some point but i am unsure whether(2009) this demand will be created fast enough to keep up with all these firms new production lines....i mean the market is going to swamped next year...and the incentives aren't aligned fast enough then we got a problem...(IMO if y'all get a democratic president then this "party" just go started...though McCain is at least not as oil and gas friendly as bush was...so no matter what the incentives will get better in the US but that is not a hard task so far except cali, ny and couple other states)

Yeah STP opened up offices in Australia and that could be a potential market....but as i said before Italy surely will be a market...but in Greece so far it has been absolute chaos, from what i heard, to get anything going....since the public servants take quiet the time to approve or not to...and it is very unclear what the rules are over their.....a little bit like the UK and their renewable bill at the moment...

To CSIQ results i think they are going to beat but after that run they gotta beat by a lot not to consolidate(short term) as you said...but i got this feeling they will beat(by a lot) and raise guidance....

To SPWR sure if you compare the premium to TSL premium it is quiet the hefty price but if you compare to FSLR almost cheap(using forward P/E)...and FSLR lack of disclosure concerning tellarium is a bit worrisome imo...But a good management can be quiet the asset and i think SPWR has one of the best management in the solar business...and they have done just about everything right so far...
But i have only looked a little bit at TSL and will do that more off this week....

kind regards from across the pond,
CW

SunPower Buy Opportunity?

@Jack Yetiv obviously thanks for your research and it was you that brought my focus to csiq which i sold friday with big gains(dont know whether that was good or not time will be the judge) in the hope of a pullback today and saving some dollars but surely didn't work out so far...but we got some time left...

But what catches me again is your optimism towards incentives...thus affecting supply and demand most obviously...Lets just speak hypothetical here for a moment....what if Germany indeed does lower its EEG Bill by 30%...(which is doubtful)but what if they do actually pull through?how is that demand going to be made up in 2009?It is not....do not get me wrong as you probably know by now i am a solar bull but still see some things that could affect the industry adversely in the way the industry should be pushed...

Though on the other hand i totally agree with the efficiency gains to be made in the next year...as you mentioned the poly costs are down a bit....and their learning curve is getting stepper as well....I think some solars will have some issues...and TSL does look like a steal...

On the other hand i also like spwr....Which i do not currently own...but have taken it for a few enjoyable rides....And yes high PE growth slowing down a bit...but i really, really like the management team they got over their...also due to size maybe faster learning??and the news today certainly weren't that bad:)though obviously in a lab....Also they established themselves pretty well in the states at least in comparison to fslr and other competitors....which just has been producing for Germany (subject to change soon as i heard but still)....also caught foot in Italy which could be a real hot market(will see what berlusconi does) but that market is perfect for solar and spwr grabbed foot downstream which will hurt margins a bit right now but might pay off big later...so i think SPWR has the tools to be a major if not the biggest player in the industry...short term the potential of CY selling the stake will hurt....to STP which i own right now...i am really not that convinced anymore...but that is for another day...with kind regards from across the pond CW

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

@Jack Yetiv..it is not only that you have to pick up the slack also the market has to grow at least 30% YOY...Looks like supply will be greater than demand in 2009...unless the demand side is spiced up with a little of artifical demand(create demand through tax incentives)...This could result in a margin squeeze for a lot of companies....but also possibly drive innovation...

By 2010(maybe 2011), on the other hand, this problem is already history...When the Solars almost are at grid parity...this obviously also has to do with cost of energy...but to be honest i do not think that we are going below 100$(ever again). When one looks at where this oil is going to be drilled(explored etc.) it is certainly not getting any cheaper...and the supply demand situation...do not get my started.... in short even if the US recession is deep the world demand of oil will keep on growing....which is great for renewables..

@Andrew Ling...Surely we do not mind paying extra for clean energy but one also has to look at it at least a bit economical(though also 40,000 jobs exist in Germanys Solar Sector)....i mean you cant just pour money into sector without thinking about the long term effects...A little less incentives wouldnt hurt the industry if others, finally, would finally follow our lead...spain has done so...but besides that their is not really other big markets as of yet....And to be honest i do not understand the american attitude towards renewables...i mean i lived in you country for a few years and know how much you have to have a car to get around,and the way you air condition, i mean i could give you millions of examples how you guys abuse the planet...and then the great chance of renewables comes around and you guys say "other energies are currently cheaper" i mean that shortsightedness is absurd and just plain ignorant if one takes into account what potential some of these renewables have....at least that is my opinion...with kind regards from across the pond CW

LONG STP, ABX and just sold CSIQ but planning to buy monday after a pullback again

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

The #'s for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are meant to be €

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

Well as you probably already know Andrew I am not the biggest fan of FSLR...Though when you talk about good performing (Tech) Stocks such as AAPL,GOOG, or RIMM they all trade at high valuations and show excellent returns(unless the first time you invested in them was in Janurary)....so high PE's are not that bad if you perform....

In any case I am very bullish on Solar...Though they are some clouds on the horizon....In Germany, where I am from, we are discussing susidy cuts at the moment....a renowned economic Insitution advised the Goverment to cut sudsidy's by 30% this year...Current subsidies are €.43 per kwh (for each kilowatt hour)....The plan beforehand was:
2009=(9%) + €0.01= $.381
2010=(7%) = $.352
2011=(8%) = $.326
Which would leave us at about 33 cents subsidization in 2011 which is still way too much for the Germany tax payers too pay...if 30% were cut immediatly then obviously (.7 x .43)=.30 that would leave us at 30 euro cents next year which could be a margin squeeze for a lot of solar firms....The subsidy cuts are probably going to be in the middle of the two extremes...probably leaving us around 28 cents in 2011....

It is very hotly debated in Germany at the moment since we are already producing 3% of our energy consumption from solar energy....our goal by 2020 is 20% renewables which is very much so possible....the problem being it is time for other countries to step up and create a bigger market it cant be that Germany and Spain pay for it all...

Because we need a break from installation in our country because basically we are producing (and importing a whole lot) "first" generation solar which is nice since it is clean...but also inefficient at this point(in two-three years everybody wishes they had solar stocks if they dont already)so we need to let some other countries pick up our slack for a couple years...such as Italy, France, Greece, USA, China, Australia, India etc...Because the market has to keep growing at least 20 more like 30% for many solars to survive...surely excluding FSLR due to its margin strength but surely they will lose some of their valuation....

Basically what I am saying it is time for other countries to step up we have been pushing the sector for a long time now and got it to where it is today...now we are in the last stages before grid parity....it is time for other countries to pay some of the bill as well we already did most of it so there is not too much left to pay:)...For example the "leader" of the industrial world, USA, doesnt find it neccesarry to give any substantial tax breaks on solar or renewables in general...they rather subsidize traditional energy sectors...In Germany we then speak of an "Armutszeugnis"...with kind regards from across the pond

CW

PS. LONG CSIQ, LONG STP

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

The problem with nuclear my genius friend ist the amount of uranium on the planet....do a little research...before you waste my time:)kind regards from germany

CW

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

Andrew Ling- Just so everthing is clear I have a huge stake in CSIQ and a bit smaller stake in STP...so you know where this is coming from....and I am not going to come at you with PE's, revenue growth rates or anything else...all I am going to say is FSLR is worth 22 Billion dollars....and the leader in the world for solar panels(only traded in Germany) is Q Cells...with a pretty nice technology and in the backyard where the money is made...Guess what they are worth!?!5.5 Billion Euros about 8,7 billion dollars...

My point being the valuation is way too high for a industry that is not mature yet....what if a breakthrough technology is being developed from any given company...who will remember CIGS...and maybe you are right they won't miss expectations for a couple of Q's but you better be prepared that they will miss at some point and then you have your personal waterloo...The risk/reward profile is just not their what are they going to do in the next 52 wekks?Double and be worth 44 billion dollars you have got to be kidding me...or even just gain 50 percent and be worth 33 billion for an industry that is not mature....i smell trouble....i like smaller solar stocks with more room to grow...

Marc Anthony - Just wanted to say that telleraium article was great and pointed to just a few risks that go along with that stock...very well researched...two thumbs up!

With kind regards from Germany,
CW

Garmin: Clearly Something's Not Right

Pretty much about right stock spy:)

Apple, Walmart: Growth Stocks on the Move

New energy stocks are the way to go huge returns are too be made...the stocks are quiet volatile though so you better be prepared for some huge gains and drops...My favorties are solar stocks and one wind stock...

Biggest player(solar) in the US is SPWR and in China STP....While the biggest overall player in the world is Q Cells which is not traded in the US it is a german company with a JV with ESLR an american based firm(Mass.)..I personally do not like ESLR though they grow way to slowly and unprofitable if you want to look at a small solar...

Take a look at CSIQ a Canadian based firm with Chinese background this company is quiet small and look at their growth rates they are trading at a forward P/E of 11...which is just absurd that stock will be in near future trading at 30(at least)..another intresting fact concerning CSIQ is that the forecast doesn't include the new panels which go into production in Q3...for more information concerning CSIQ you might want to do some more research yourself...the conference call last quarter was quiet interesting...

For wind i like Nordex also a German firm...which did not have that good of a year so far due to some delays in projects but the books are full...so worth taking a look

In summary, Renewables are the way to go...i jumped on the train a couple years ago due to the fact that the markets for renewables is only going to expand greatly it is in an infant stage so their is still a few risks but opportunities outweigh these risks vastly...So far most companies just make their money predominatly in Spain and Germany...With a bit to be made Greece, Italy, USA, Asia, Australia...But those are still such small markets...Once the tax credit extension comes in the US that market will grow faster as well and other markets will become bigger as well next year...Furthermore if a democrat wins you better have some green stocks in your portfolio or you are missing outon great returns...Their is still a lot of catching up to do in the US...the Green Wave will reach your continent as well:)

With Kind Regards from Germany,

Dicki

Disclosure: Long STP, Long Nordex, about to go Long CSIQ