dicki31785

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

Atticvs research - We have the $1.05 Non Silicon costs + 1.40 silicon costs (2.45) at the end of 2008...I expect that to drop to .85 N.S.C(You can actually move this number down quiet a lot depending on the learning curve)+ .70 silicon costs in 2010...That would put us at 1.55 production costs...The silicon costs are due to come down very sharply for two main reasons,1. The market will be swamped by silicon...I know a guy from Wacker Chemie...(German poly producer) and they expect the market to be swamped and thus opted for a big junk of forward contracts in the future...Also I expect the Grams/Watt used in Wafers to come down to about 4-5 g at least....Then you also have to model what energy prices will be like...That depends on what you believe...In any case this is an aggressive model and picture that I am painting...obviously you can tweak the numbers any way you want to...But I Believe ASP costs will be around 1.50 around that time...Which will put it an Grid Parity in all sunny regions at the very least....

And do not get me started on thin film....their are costs involved their that one does not realize I think the efficiency of the cells is much more important than the cost actually...Obviously not in the long term but the thin film advantage that FSLR has for example will be eaten up real quick because the biggest solar opportunity is on factories...or office buildings....for now....and their efficiency counts and not the cost I mean it is great that FSLR panels are so cheap but you need an abundance of land....then you need to get hooked up to network etc.,etc. So in the places space is a concern and that is just about everywhere especially in Europe it is important to go for efficiency...Where the density is unbelievably high...Otherwise you can use cheaper models....But FSLR is doomed anyhow...but that is for another day....I keep on hearing thus numbers thrown around that you mentioned how is supposed to reach them?Nanosolar...?!?Th... Chinese players are set up well for the future....At least when considering CSIQ,LDK,SOL,STP,TSL..... the only question is how will demand look like in 2009...That is the only year these stocks could get hurt bad....But IMO Spain will not introduce a cap at all...Why would they...They are reaching grid parity next year....They will reduce feed in tariffs about 20 percent and why shouldn't they....the demand will still be their...even with less subsidies...and don't forget that many American/Chinese players will have a huge exchange rate advantage...(With the American adv. bound to stay for awhile with that interest policy and Chinas exchange rate policy is well known...but I guess they will edge up on the Euro in medium to long-term)This will make it easier for these companies to compete...But basically what we need is an incentive package for the US and Spain will work out by itself people(banks) just want solars at cheaper prices....With kind regards from Germany and happy 4th of July...CW

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

Who cares about the analysts I live in Europe and I know what is going to happen next probably a cap of 1GW people throwing around numbers such as 300 MW for Spain it is utterly crazy why would spain do that?Their place on the solar map is excellent in actuality in Spain we will reach Grip parity next year...yes next year if we haven't already reached it....so incentives will come down surely but the demand for a cost cutting technology will not drop as much as the analysts say.....even if incentives are dropped 35%...the effects are much smaller especially for American solar makers or Chinese...due to a favorable exchange rate which will only get better due to FED policy....

Concerning cash flow...can't wait until the first solar companies present in that case SPWR..which has an a huge exchange rate advantage they will blow numbers away and raise guidance...again...To GS these people are criminals but banks need money too...I think in their case they should worry about themselves not being able to pay their debt(maybe not in GS's case)....In any case I am so long TSL look for 75 cents next Q....and an expanding margin in the second half of 2008 and they have 60% of their production pre-sold for 2009...(excluding the new contract with the Italian firm)...So that is a pretty stable outlook with a constant flow of cash income either GS didn't research well or want to kill the stock, my guess tends towards the latter...and by 2010 Grid parity will be reached by Trina...(obviously not in all geographic locations but in most)....and at that PE it is just sooooo cheap...well make a picture for yourself...in any case solar is the answer to a lot of problems now the US has to support it to increase the market(demand) for the solar makers...this is the greatest and cheapest opportunity to get into solar you will see for quiet a while...kind regards from Germany CW