dicki31785

As Solar Sector Flies, Pay Attention to Values

I wouldn't discount the risk and the capital, needed, involved becoming a vertical player....surely it is a nice idea and everybody in the space seems to be heading that way....Since you can save a "couple" basis points of margin at every step of the supply chain....but you gotta be good at what you are doing....You can't jsut become a vertically integrated player and thats the end of the story....it involves a bit more than that....

my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

I Guess the rumors were right STP announced the deal today...not looking bad pre-market we'll see what happens throughout the day...kind regards CW

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

Hi Jack,

As always I agree with you on most things...But that STP doesn't deserve a higher valuation than the likes of CSIQ or TSL is in my opinion not true...the company is the greatest producer of solar panels(overtook Q-cells and I think Sharp)....and I think that size is ,and will be, quiet important in the coming years when it comes to lowering ASP's...(bargaining power, faster learning etc.)...does it justify twice the PE of CSIQ or TSL no probably not but what does it mean?Does it mean that STP is overpriced or that the other two are underpriced?My guess is the latter, these companies are trading at levels that Blue chips usually trade at(but with earnings/revenue growth very much unlike Blue chips)...I think STP will break out in the near-term....at the latest when they will announce a hugh poly deal that is rumored to happen soon....$1 Bil. in short term cash flow certainly speak for that scenario....

Also i started building a CSIQ position, again, but quiet slow....jumped in @$38 and now waiting either for lower prices (gap close)...or just earn some money either way I am quiet comfortable with the investment at that price in the short term(less than 1 year)....with kind regards from across the pond CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

PS this week in Germany they are meeting to discuss the future of incentives...(EEG)We'l... see what happens there...if anything unexpected happens I would get myself ready for the solar stocks getting pummeled...but nothing extraordinary is expected but who knows....

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

These guys get paid mostly in shares.....you should also take that into account

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

first of all those are trailing PE's supershot and if you look at the growth rates of these firms you will realize that those numbers are absolutly irrelevant....and @Phily Jim....just because in america you rather subsidize oil and gas firms for some reason doesnt mean their is not a market out their(just that market is not in america, so far, rather than that in spain, germany, and soon italy will boom too so take a look at spwr which positioned itself very well in italy as well due to a takeover of an italian firm)....and maybe it is wiser to subsidze alternative energies rather than to start a war for energy resources in other countries....saves a lot of money and more importantly lives...with kind regards from Germany

Disclosure: Long SPWR, CSIQ, and STP