dicki31785

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

I Think your post is sort of misleading....Germany'... plan was to take nuclear power of the grid at a certain point of time....whether the plant could run longer or not....Thus abolishing nuclear power...This is indeed still the plan though....The only difference now is that they said "energy prices are quiet high so why not keep them until their lifetime is used up"...Furthermore the excess profits that the companies would get from keeping them on longer(since their is not really that big of costs to still incur....its just pure cash for the companies such as Eon, RWE, Vattenfall etc.)...would not all go directly into the pockets of the companies...actually Germany is planning on using that money(by some sort of extra tax or something of that sort) to pay off (part of)the bill for their renewable energy subsidy....So the move Germany is making is actually quiet friendly to the renewable energies around the world....

To SPWR...If you look at present numbers obviously 28 million net income is not enough for that valuation....but as we all now the stock markets incorporates in its valuation the future....And SPWR is actually quiet well managed and if it goes back down to $60 a strong buy....SPWR strategy relies on buying sales offices in expanding solar markets(Italy, Australia....etc.etc.) and thus gaining solid traction in these markets...The Spanish subsidy cuts I already have discussed and surely won't be as severe as expected, though it is about time Spains gov't clears up the situation so companies can plan better...and a lot of uncertainty which is surrounding solar stocks presently would be gone...Well my point was SPWR won't go down to the 20's....as they always say buy when the mood is the worst...and for solar stocks the outlook is pretty gloomy, predominantly, right now so it could be a buying opportunity...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL,TSL

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

@Rob Doc In Germany we got decreases of 8% per year(without a cap)....Why should the government(tax payer) pay for the margin of these companies....In Spain a harsher reduction will come....Not as bad as feared but still significant I see a cap of 750 MW and a cut of subsidies around 20%....(compared to analysts saying a cap of 300 MW and subsidy cuts of up to 30%)Which is still isn't enough to curb demand that much(1.1 GW vs 750 MW)...Although i could also imagine the scenario of 30% subsidy cuts without a cap....which is much better scenario for solar makers since demand won't be effected as much as one would expect thanks to Spain's placement on the "solar map"

Since other countries are putting bigger subsides online such as Korea, Italy, Switzerland etc. etc.......It is only natural the countries with already a lot of PV cut their subsidies a bit while prices are coming down....and countries still lagging behind are bringing programs online....So the subsidies in Europe are much more stable and EXPANDING even with the Spain factor(Not even to mention worldwide subsidies which are increasing as well)....And if an American program ever does come around, in a large scale, it will help that much more....Including other countries such as China, Great Britian, Greek (once they focus on solar expect this to be a HUGE market), India, France, etc. etc. etc.

In any case my point is that Germany and Spain lowering their Subsidies is normal, if Spain does not overdue it, since the costs are coming down and thus not that high amount of subsidies is needed to keep demand for Solar high!In Germany we for example we expect a significant increase in solar installations, despite the 8% decrease in subsides. With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

*that is why my main holdings are in CSIQ + TSL

In the Battle of Best Solar Plays, U.S. Is a Distant Second

The American solar shares trade also at a huge premium compared to the Chinese counterparts....FSLR especially...SPWR is not cheap by any means either....ESLR has, roughly, twice the market cap of CSIQ with sales of what $16 million....Showing that these firms are just not as cheap as the Chinese, or even German or Spanish firms....

Concerning the three stocks FSLR will be eaten alive, I mean just destroyed...I would be quiet surprised if they manage to ever see their ATH again....(but they got major support from the institutional investors) I do not believe in thin film(poor efficiency but cheaper thats not enough)....also the Telleraium issue....Their advantage will be eaten up in no-time if a lot of Poly becomes available...

SPWR I like due to its management....ESLR I just bought after Q2 results....The Quad technology is quiet nice and the stock will explode when the first solid earnings come in sight.(Probably Q4 2008-Q1 2009)...But in summary they are just quiet expensive with no advantage that justifies their premium to Chinese counterparts(yet)........ why my main solar holdings are in CSIQ and TSL...

They took care of their financing problems....and it looks like they might have found a bottom....With Kind regards from Germany
CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

Atticvs research - We have the $1.05 Non Silicon costs + 1.40 silicon costs (2.45) at the end of 2008...I expect that to drop to .85 N.S.C(You can actually move this number down quiet a lot depending on the learning curve)+ .70 silicon costs in 2010...That would put us at 1.55 production costs...The silicon costs are due to come down very sharply for two main reasons,1. The market will be swamped by silicon...I know a guy from Wacker Chemie...(German poly producer) and they expect the market to be swamped and thus opted for a big junk of forward contracts in the future...Also I expect the Grams/Watt used in Wafers to come down to about 4-5 g at least....Then you also have to model what energy prices will be like...That depends on what you believe...In any case this is an aggressive model and picture that I am painting...obviously you can tweak the numbers any way you want to...But I Believe ASP costs will be around 1.50 around that time...Which will put it an Grid Parity in all sunny regions at the very least....

And do not get me started on thin film....their are costs involved their that one does not realize I think the efficiency of the cells is much more important than the cost actually...Obviously not in the long term but the thin film advantage that FSLR has for example will be eaten up real quick because the biggest solar opportunity is on factories...or office buildings....for now....and their efficiency counts and not the cost I mean it is great that FSLR panels are so cheap but you need an abundance of land....then you need to get hooked up to network etc.,etc. So in the places space is a concern and that is just about everywhere especially in Europe it is important to go for efficiency...Where the density is unbelievably high...Otherwise you can use cheaper models....But FSLR is doomed anyhow...but that is for another day....I keep on hearing thus numbers thrown around that you mentioned how is supposed to reach them?Nanosolar...?!?Th... Chinese players are set up well for the future....At least when considering CSIQ,LDK,SOL,STP,TSL..... the only question is how will demand look like in 2009...That is the only year these stocks could get hurt bad....But IMO Spain will not introduce a cap at all...Why would they...They are reaching grid parity next year....They will reduce feed in tariffs about 20 percent and why shouldn't they....the demand will still be their...even with less subsidies...and don't forget that many American/Chinese players will have a huge exchange rate advantage...(With the American adv. bound to stay for awhile with that interest policy and Chinas exchange rate policy is well known...but I guess they will edge up on the Euro in medium to long-term)This will make it easier for these companies to compete...But basically what we need is an incentive package for the US and Spain will work out by itself people(banks) just want solars at cheaper prices....With kind regards from Germany and happy 4th of July...CW

The 'Problem' With Solar Companies is Not Really a Problem

Who cares about the analysts I live in Europe and I know what is going to happen next probably a cap of 1GW people throwing around numbers such as 300 MW for Spain it is utterly crazy why would spain do that?Their place on the solar map is excellent in actuality in Spain we will reach Grip parity next year...yes next year if we haven't already reached it....so incentives will come down surely but the demand for a cost cutting technology will not drop as much as the analysts say.....even if incentives are dropped 35%...the effects are much smaller especially for American solar makers or Chinese...due to a favorable exchange rate which will only get better due to FED policy....

Concerning cash flow...can't wait until the first solar companies present in that case SPWR..which has an a huge exchange rate advantage they will blow numbers away and raise guidance...again...To GS these people are criminals but banks need money too...I think in their case they should worry about themselves not being able to pay their debt(maybe not in GS's case)....In any case I am so long TSL look for 75 cents next Q....and an expanding margin in the second half of 2008 and they have 60% of their production pre-sold for 2009...(excluding the new contract with the Italian firm)...So that is a pretty stable outlook with a constant flow of cash income either GS didn't research well or want to kill the stock, my guess tends towards the latter...and by 2010 Grid parity will be reached by Trina...(obviously not in all geographic locations but in most)....and at that PE it is just sooooo cheap...well make a picture for yourself...in any case solar is the answer to a lot of problems now the US has to support it to increase the market(demand) for the solar makers...this is the greatest and cheapest opportunity to get into solar you will see for quiet a while...kind regards from Germany CW

A Second Try for Evergreen Solar

You guys are crazy...no offense but ESLR hasn't accomplished anything yet...they have a nice technology...but it is not even proven they can produce their quad technology on a bigger scale without problems....last Q they broke even due to scrap silicon sales with revenues of a whole 22 million dollars of revenues...WOW it must be worth a 1.4 billion;)....You guys should read what happened to Conergy(German based solar firm)....

Furthermore they are building their facilities in the US which puts them at a labor cost disadvantage to the Chinese solars and to most American solars because SPWR produces mostly in Malaysia...and FSLR is certainly not building their new production lines in the US...Im not saying it cant reach 16 but certainly not a good buy with all their uncertainties...and as Jack Yetiv pointed out their cost advantage (due to lower usage of poly per panel) will erode when poly prices come down which is going to happen just about the time Devens is finished...Also companies are already learning on the job as you can see by the gram usage per panel...while ESLR is just beginning to produce

And the CEO Feldt...Well let's just say I am not a big fan of him...if you guys want a company with a comparable market cap with much more potential than look at CSIQ...If you guys want to bank on technical analysis with solars have fun but it doesn't count for anything concerning solars....Well all in all ESLR is nice for momentum runs....but if the DOW and NASDAQ get crushed next week don't bank on ESLR holding the 10...Kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, NFLX, STP, TSL

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

I Guess the rumors were right STP announced the deal today...not looking bad pre-market we'll see what happens throughout the day...kind regards CW

The Self-Defeating Oil Surge

@Bill D

I would actually write something longer concerning your comment but since you compared renewables in the 70's to today really shows your ignorance of the subject...and really is not worth my time for a lengthy response....please do some research before you post this BS next time...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long: ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

Hi Jack,

As always I agree with you on most things...But that STP doesn't deserve a higher valuation than the likes of CSIQ or TSL is in my opinion not true...the company is the greatest producer of solar panels(overtook Q-cells and I think Sharp)....and I think that size is ,and will be, quiet important in the coming years when it comes to lowering ASP's...(bargaining power, faster learning etc.)...does it justify twice the PE of CSIQ or TSL no probably not but what does it mean?Does it mean that STP is overpriced or that the other two are underpriced?My guess is the latter, these companies are trading at levels that Blue chips usually trade at(but with earnings/revenue growth very much unlike Blue chips)...I think STP will break out in the near-term....at the latest when they will announce a hugh poly deal that is rumored to happen soon....$1 Bil. in short term cash flow certainly speak for that scenario....

Also i started building a CSIQ position, again, but quiet slow....jumped in @$38 and now waiting either for lower prices (gap close)...or just earn some money either way I am quiet comfortable with the investment at that price in the short term(less than 1 year)....with kind regards from across the pond CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

PS this week in Germany they are meeting to discuss the future of incentives...(EEG)We'l... see what happens there...if anything unexpected happens I would get myself ready for the solar stocks getting pummeled...but nothing extraordinary is expected but who knows....

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

The problem with nuclear my genius friend ist the amount of uranium on the planet....do a little research...before you waste my time:)kind regards from germany

CW

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

These guys get paid mostly in shares.....you should also take that into account

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

first of all those are trailing PE's supershot and if you look at the growth rates of these firms you will realize that those numbers are absolutly irrelevant....and @Phily Jim....just because in america you rather subsidize oil and gas firms for some reason doesnt mean their is not a market out their(just that market is not in america, so far, rather than that in spain, germany, and soon italy will boom too so take a look at spwr which positioned itself very well in italy as well due to a takeover of an italian firm)....and maybe it is wiser to subsidze alternative energies rather than to start a war for energy resources in other countries....saves a lot of money and more importantly lives...with kind regards from Germany

Disclosure: Long SPWR, CSIQ, and STP