dicki31785

As Solar Sector Flies, Pay Attention to Values

I wouldn't discount the risk and the capital, needed, involved becoming a vertical player....surely it is a nice idea and everybody in the space seems to be heading that way....Since you can save a "couple" basis points of margin at every step of the supply chain....but you gotta be good at what you are doing....You can't jsut become a vertically integrated player and thats the end of the story....it involves a bit more than that....

my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

Just look at the guidance Buystocks and then do the math...with kind regards CW

Which Solar Stocks Will Continue To Shine?

Dear Jack,

Exactly what you said is correct while listening to the TSL conference call this afternoon...the first thing that stuck out was that 4 million dollar charge they took....really made the earnings look "disappointing" while they were really not disappointing at all....Another point that you did not mention and I would like to add is Trina's position in Italy...They positioned themselves excellent in order to take advantage of that emerging solar market...IMO it will be the next Spain....and currently Trina holds a market share of 25% in that market and if you looked at where their products go in the near future they will even expand that markertshare...

Also you did not really get into reduction of unit costs which look quiet promising...with poly costs dropping at least 12-15% in the next year(more realistic is 20%...TSL is conservative in the estimate which surely is not a bad thing) and also non poly costs reduction from $1.17 to 1.05 by the end of the year...So I think their is actually a possibility of a margin expansion....rather than a margin squeeze which other companies possible face with reductions in feed-in tariffs in ESP and GER...All in all the numbers were quiet good and as you said it is so cheap...and after a couple people do their math and raise guidance the stock will go up....I added to my position as well today and will continue doing so in small steps since they are, as you also said, so volatile but i do not expect a big pullback....

also i know it is kind of outta the way....but it looks like the ECB is quiet serious about raising those interest rates(The German Central bank is putting quiet a lot of pressure on them) and if it does not happen this month it will happen next month...putting further pressure on the dollar and this will obviously raise commodity prices...I doubt that is smart for Europe but that was not the point I was trying to make:)...Kind regards from Germany CW

Solar Again Under Attack

*.61+.73+.88+1.05=3.27... see what CSIQ can(will) achieve this year

ps should have really read through that entry....hopefully it is understandable

Solar Again Under Attack

Dr Jack Yetiv knows what he is doing....He took the stock(CSIQ) from 18 to 33..and sold before the earnings....I bought on his advice and do have to say i did the same mistake....wish i would have just bought a few puts before(as i usually do when I am up a lot) instead of selling but cant change the past....

i got back into the stock at 38....and that stock is a clear winner...(I also like SOL but currently hold no long position in that stock)...The advancements CSIQ has made are incredible....The UMG technology is progressing very well and will contribute to results this year...The company will earn $3 this year (my estimate is way above consensus)...the company earned $.61 cents in Q1...and if we just have twenty percent quarter over quarter earnings growth the 3 dollars will be easily reached(.61+.73+.88+1.... you what CSIQ can achieve this year....

Also a lot of pressures are gone...and two huge news are out which are going to affect the solars at some point....Obviously the solar subsidy cut in Germany wasnt as bad as many expected...So good for Germany since lowering it a little bit and good for the industry since it wasn't lowered too much...Also what a lot of people haven't heard yet in the US...Spain took the cap off solar subsidies....and that is huge for the second half of 2008 because the expectation was that after Spain subsidies are "worked off" one just go to Germany and installs panels their..now you have two quiet strong markets for the second half of 2008 which is going to help the sector at a whole....So the future is bright...Also since a socialist is ruling in Spain it will be a lot more green energy friendly in the future...So the most important thing is solved now and that is subsidies....for the industry as a whole now one has to pick the right players...With kind regards from Germany

CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

I Guess the rumors were right STP announced the deal today...not looking bad pre-market we'll see what happens throughout the day...kind regards CW

The Self-Defeating Oil Surge

@Bill D

I would actually write something longer concerning your comment but since you compared renewables in the 70's to today really shows your ignorance of the subject...and really is not worth my time for a lengthy response....please do some research before you post this BS next time...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long: ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

Which Are the Bargains In Solar Stocks?

Hi Jack,

As always I agree with you on most things...But that STP doesn't deserve a higher valuation than the likes of CSIQ or TSL is in my opinion not true...the company is the greatest producer of solar panels(overtook Q-cells and I think Sharp)....and I think that size is ,and will be, quiet important in the coming years when it comes to lowering ASP's...(bargaining power, faster learning etc.)...does it justify twice the PE of CSIQ or TSL no probably not but what does it mean?Does it mean that STP is overpriced or that the other two are underpriced?My guess is the latter, these companies are trading at levels that Blue chips usually trade at(but with earnings/revenue growth very much unlike Blue chips)...I think STP will break out in the near-term....at the latest when they will announce a hugh poly deal that is rumored to happen soon....$1 Bil. in short term cash flow certainly speak for that scenario....

Also i started building a CSIQ position, again, but quiet slow....jumped in @$38 and now waiting either for lower prices (gap close)...or just earn some money either way I am quiet comfortable with the investment at that price in the short term(less than 1 year)....with kind regards from across the pond CW

Long ABX, CSIQ, STP, TSL

PS this week in Germany they are meeting to discuss the future of incentives...(EEG)We'l... see what happens there...if anything unexpected happens I would get myself ready for the solar stocks getting pummeled...but nothing extraordinary is expected but who knows....

Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow

@bill d this is only the case for FSLR, as far as I know, since they are the only ones using that material in there panels...the other ones just some sort of poly mostly...with kind regards CW

Solar Cell Manufacturers Have Room to Grow

@Nick some good stuff you worked out their quiet impressive kind regards CW

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

@Jack Yetiv..it is not only that you have to pick up the slack also the market has to grow at least 30% YOY...Looks like supply will be greater than demand in 2009...unless the demand side is spiced up with a little of artifical demand(create demand through tax incentives)...This could result in a margin squeeze for a lot of companies....but also possibly drive innovation...

By 2010(maybe 2011), on the other hand, this problem is already history...When the Solars almost are at grid parity...this obviously also has to do with cost of energy...but to be honest i do not think that we are going below 100$(ever again). When one looks at where this oil is going to be drilled(explored etc.) it is certainly not getting any cheaper...and the supply demand situation...do not get my started.... in short even if the US recession is deep the world demand of oil will keep on growing....which is great for renewables..

@Andrew Ling...Surely we do not mind paying extra for clean energy but one also has to look at it at least a bit economical(though also 40,000 jobs exist in Germanys Solar Sector)....i mean you cant just pour money into sector without thinking about the long term effects...A little less incentives wouldnt hurt the industry if others, finally, would finally follow our lead...spain has done so...but besides that their is not really other big markets as of yet....And to be honest i do not understand the american attitude towards renewables...i mean i lived in you country for a few years and know how much you have to have a car to get around,and the way you air condition, i mean i could give you millions of examples how you guys abuse the planet...and then the great chance of renewables comes around and you guys say "other energies are currently cheaper" i mean that shortsightedness is absurd and just plain ignorant if one takes into account what potential some of these renewables have....at least that is my opinion...with kind regards from across the pond CW

LONG STP, ABX and just sold CSIQ but planning to buy monday after a pullback again

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

The #'s for 2009, 2010 and 2011 are meant to be €

First Solar: Large Intangible Assets and High PEs Go Together

Well as you probably already know Andrew I am not the biggest fan of FSLR...Though when you talk about good performing (Tech) Stocks such as AAPL,GOOG, or RIMM they all trade at high valuations and show excellent returns(unless the first time you invested in them was in Janurary)....so high PE's are not that bad if you perform....

In any case I am very bullish on Solar...Though they are some clouds on the horizon....In Germany, where I am from, we are discussing susidy cuts at the moment....a renowned economic Insitution advised the Goverment to cut sudsidy's by 30% this year...Current subsidies are €.43 per kwh (for each kilowatt hour)....The plan beforehand was:
2009=(9%) + €0.01= $.381
2010=(7%) = $.352
2011=(8%) = $.326
Which would leave us at about 33 cents subsidization in 2011 which is still way too much for the Germany tax payers too pay...if 30% were cut immediatly then obviously (.7 x .43)=.30 that would leave us at 30 euro cents next year which could be a margin squeeze for a lot of solar firms....The subsidy cuts are probably going to be in the middle of the two extremes...probably leaving us around 28 cents in 2011....

It is very hotly debated in Germany at the moment since we are already producing 3% of our energy consumption from solar energy....our goal by 2020 is 20% renewables which is very much so possible....the problem being it is time for other countries to step up and create a bigger market it cant be that Germany and Spain pay for it all...

Because we need a break from installation in our country because basically we are producing (and importing a whole lot) "first" generation solar which is nice since it is clean...but also inefficient at this point(in two-three years everybody wishes they had solar stocks if they dont already)so we need to let some other countries pick up our slack for a couple years...such as Italy, France, Greece, USA, China, Australia, India etc...Because the market has to keep growing at least 20 more like 30% for many solars to survive...surely excluding FSLR due to its margin strength but surely they will lose some of their valuation....

Basically what I am saying it is time for other countries to step up we have been pushing the sector for a long time now and got it to where it is today...now we are in the last stages before grid parity....it is time for other countries to pay some of the bill as well we already did most of it so there is not too much left to pay:)...For example the "leader" of the industrial world, USA, doesnt find it neccesarry to give any substantial tax breaks on solar or renewables in general...they rather subsidize traditional energy sectors...In Germany we then speak of an "Armutszeugnis"...with kind regards from across the pond

CW

PS. LONG CSIQ, LONG STP

Solar Stocks: Nine That Will Shine in a Bull Market

The problem with nuclear my genius friend ist the amount of uranium on the planet....do a little research...before you waste my time:)kind regards from germany

CW

First Solar Now in Its Third Leg Up

Andrew Ling- Just so everthing is clear I have a huge stake in CSIQ and a bit smaller stake in STP...so you know where this is coming from....and I am not going to come at you with PE's, revenue growth rates or anything else...all I am going to say is FSLR is worth 22 Billion dollars....and the leader in the world for solar panels(only traded in Germany) is Q Cells...with a pretty nice technology and in the backyard where the money is made...Guess what they are worth!?!5.5 Billion Euros about 8,7 billion dollars...

My point being the valuation is way too high for a industry that is not mature yet....what if a breakthrough technology is being developed from any given company...who will remember CIGS...and maybe you are right they won't miss expectations for a couple of Q's but you better be prepared that they will miss at some point and then you have your personal waterloo...The risk/reward profile is just not their what are they going to do in the next 52 wekks?Double and be worth 44 billion dollars you have got to be kidding me...or even just gain 50 percent and be worth 33 billion for an industry that is not mature....i smell trouble....i like smaller solar stocks with more room to grow...

Marc Anthony - Just wanted to say that telleraium article was great and pointed to just a few risks that go along with that stock...very well researched...two thumbs up!

With kind regards from Germany,
CW