dicki31785

Flummoxed by Solar Market Action?

I Actually have a preliminary version finished just with total MW installed in the EU (inc. Sui):

2007 1545.19 MW
2008 2190-2290 MW (41.0%-48.2% growth)
2009 2510-4000 MW (14.6%-82.6% growth)

2009 Their is certainly a lot of uncertainty as one can see by that huge low(2510) to high estimate(4000) difference of 1490 MW. The low number of 2510 is including the 300 MW scenario for Spain. And quiet the low Germany estimate of 1.3 GW of PV....And also very conservative estimates concerning France and Italy....Showing even with those estimates included their would still be growth in the EU zone of 14.6%...and then consider that worldwide subsidies will greatly expand and then you still have at a bare minimum growth rates of 20-25% and that is the worst case scenario....

So I feel pretty good about the sector at the moment actually...kept on buying CSIQ and TSL and diversified a little bit so I am pretty much strapped for cash in the short term...but I think solars may have found a bottom and if FSLR presents well after hours today....this could be a well deserved good week in the sector and maybe a start of a bull run if Spain announces something before their summer holiday....with kind regards CW

Flummoxed by Solar Market Action?

Dear Trader Mark,

Interesting view on California...but i wouldn't count on that yet....I am pretty cautious concerning your view considering in 2007 the US in total installed, depending on estimates, 150 MW....and to reach Germany, Cali would have to install 1,3 GW(2007 data).....Their is still huge steps to be done until 2011...But that California is ideal for solar power is undebatable...

Dear Jack...I Turned out to be pretty correct concerning Italy...I expect about 300 MW-400 MW out of them next year and 500-600 MW in 2010....Greece has a huge backlog for subsidies about 2 GW of PV projects applied for subsidies...So watch for that country in the next months...they need to just eliminate all those bureaucratic problems to get those things installed and you have another huge market with 300 MW annually....Though Greece's solar renewable targets are set quiet low as of now...but that will change as of next year...

It is quiet tough to see where we are going in 2009...But I have been working hard the last couple of days to get a good estimate for 2009(at least for Europe)...Still not through all the countries but it is looking nowhere as gloomy as expected...All this Spain hype is so grossly overdone IMO(As also the installed 1.1 GW for 2008...Maybe cumulative but certainly didn't install that much IMO but that is more of a guessing game at this point)...As I said I am not through but as of now I can imagine a growth rate of 20% just for EUROPE not the world...Ill let you know country by country what I expect in a couple of days if you are interested...With kind regards from Germany CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, SSL, TSL