dicki31785

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

It is true most German companies just produce normal mono or poly cells that they have been producing for years....and are just optimizing that process....Instead of creating technologies that seem to be better fit, and are breakthrough technologies (which could be the case for nanosolar for example but one hears way too little about them to believe them...but also FSLR)

But I would like to say that I am unsure if FSLR can command that pricing advantage (when taking into consideration the conversion efficency) if polysilicon prices continue to erode....because if we have spot poly prices at around $50 I could imagine FSLR's margins significantly squeezed....Though they are a company that one can just praise....

In solar we always talk about scale....but is that really the right way?FSLR has three different locations of production (Germany, USA and what is it Malaysia or the Philippines....I forgot)....maybe that is the right way to go about innovation...instead of centering everything around one major headquarter....where I suppose you would only have very similar thought processes....

In any case this quarter is going to be a tough one when looking at SPWR's numbers....I for one like the Chinese producers....And I swear on the fully intergrated model...because I think companies like SOL and LDK which more or less just cover a couple of steps in the supply chain are in deep trouble....Maybe LDK and Q-Cells will accomplish something together when pooling their expertise....but I consider companies such as STP and TSL as future winners...TSL is offering the cheapest module on the German market right now....The question is does that speak for their ability to cut production costs or is that done in order to lower inventory levels....I guess we will know when they present numbers...with kind regards CW

Long ABX, AUY, CSIQ, ESLR, TSL, SSL

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

@FredW

I don't think at any point of my post I lumped "Americans" together...The only point I wanted to make that Americans are not as educated about Solar in comparison with Germans. I Do not know what that has to with my country's history. (or was it the Iraq comment that got you upset, then I am sorry, but I think that point that the "second gulf war" was for resources is in my humble opinion undebatable).

And that "Americans" are not as knowledgeable in comparisons to Germans is not all too surprising considering we are the leader in PV installations around the world, don't mind Spain's one year of glory, so obviously one would have less understanding in general. Not to say their is not plenty of people out their that have a very fine understanding of the subject matter. But obviously in Germany a lot more people come to see the payoffs, and talk to other people who have already installed PV on their houses, factories, etc. So it was not meant as an insult, just an obvious deduction.

Once a wider range of understanding for the technology comes around PV will be supported much more (check out Gainesville for example with the first feed in tariff, in the US, though it is only 5MW or was it15MW but still....it is a step in the right direction). Especially when you consider the rapid fall in PV prices that we have experienced in the last 6 months. This crisis is, in effect, the biggest opportunity ever for Solar to finally claw itself out of there niche and go mainstream. Poly prices are falling rapidly and are continuing to do so. Bringing about the most rapid cost reductions Solar has ever seen.

PS You absolutely have no class. That was your only comment to the whole post I made, scared of me lumping together "Americans". Pointing to my countries history, instead of focusing on the discussion about solar.

Should I get started on the dictators that you "Americans" placed around S.A. throughout the 20th century (one prominent ex. would be Pinochet) the pain and suffering you "Americans" have caused their. Or should we talk about Vietnam and what crimes were committed their (napalm) or should we just talk about the abuses going on in Iraq NOW, not 60 years ago. I also really like pyramids of naked people mate, or just girls being raped and to cover it up the whole family being killed. Or the 500,000 Iraqis dead in a war for resources.

So please let it go, we are very much so conscious of what happened and are still confronted with the subject more or less every day.

It is comments like that, which only come only from a certain small crowd, why most people around the world can't stand you "Americans" anymore. Being the moral apostle but having "s***" to back it up. Nothing but hot air. You should have just discussed my post instead of worrying about things that have nothing, and absolutely nothing to do with the subject matter.

@Dave Marsch

Thank you, I enjoyed a few great years in the states which helped me learn the language. I am Actually thinking about buying a house again as a holiday destination. I love Florida:).

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

Corrections
1. Under point 1 after "still the technology is not ready" the second part of the bracket is missing
2. Under point 2 it reads "oil does".....it should read "oil does not".....(besides its obvious effects on commodities but did not want to get into too much detail because then the post would have been endless...)
3. Just the general reading flow....I guess it doesn't always flow well but I hope you all understand my main points:)...it is after all my 2nd language...

Solar Development and Strategic Shifts in Solar Stocks

Nice article mate...I do have to say though their is not one solar program out their that started without growing pains....lets exclude Spain from the conversation but even their program took some time to spin out of control...2.2 GW in 08 that was absurd...but it took a few years to get their...It is sort of like a huge stimulus package and the "reward" comes in a few years, in the case not proper mechanism are in place, when inflation spins out of control.

In any case my main point is that all programs have trouble getting started....The main issue lies of spreading the cost of solar power around OECD countries and a few others that can afford it, everybody has to chip in to get this technology rolling (which is certainly not the case but things are getting better)....And it shouldn't be too hard when one takes a closer look at the costs....

Everybody points at the cost of solar....But I would like to point to three things:


1. The potential of the technology (Now I can already hear the Americans scream but solar started in the 70's but still the technology is not ready...But the potential is huge....All those technologies that have come out just in the last year....Imagine five years from now....though the people that want to survive in the industry have to be ready in 3 yrs max (reach grid parity).

2. The subsidization of oil, coal, etc.l projects (I know oil does have much to do with the price of energy....but that is what people use as a reference and who am I to argue....). I am not even talking about the subsidies now, which are just way absurd to comprehend, but include past subsidies as well...only then do you get the true cost of electricity of today...

3. Future cost of electricity...Whoever thinks that $150 oil was a fluke is going to be surprised concerning the average oil price in the next few years....In the worst recession in a while the oil price is hovering around $50....that is sort of scary isn't it?!

4. Last but surely not least....The political costs of importing energy resources....Whether it being the EU which can't even cough without Russia (gas, oil, etc.) "agreeing", or the US which had to start a war for resources. The political costs are huge, just take a quick look at the US budget, not to mention future costs...(Iran etc.)

In conclusion when one considers all the costs solar is not that expensive....just a long term perspective is necessary....and in late 2009 or early 2010 I think a few companies can already produce at grid parity, even without considering these costs, FSLR and MAYBE a couple others....(Nanosolar?)

With Kind Regards from Germany,

CW