dicki31785

As Solar Sector Flies, Pay Attention to Values

I wouldn't discount the risk and the capital, needed, involved becoming a vertical player....surely it is a nice idea and everybody in the space seems to be heading that way....Since you can save a "couple" basis points of margin at every step of the supply chain....but you gotta be good at what you are doing....You can't jsut become a vertically integrated player and thats the end of the story....it involves a bit more than that....

my favorites from China are STP, SOLF, TSL ( I am long TSL)...SOLF i liked because it showed the most resiliency in the downturn (rev % change Q3 08 to Q1 09)STP because of Pluto...once the get their costs under better control they should take off(not spending 80 million on office HQ and high executive compensation would be a good idea etc., etc.)...and Trina my absolute favorite...I just like everything about them....we will see if I am right in a couple hours...the run up leaves lots of room for disappointment...but I am fairly optimistic that they managed to steer through Q1 quiet well...guesstimate of $140-160 mil in rev and a small loss....

With Kind Regards From Germany

CW

Chinese Solar Stocks Present Compelling Value

I do agree with you their Rana the increased REV guidance was nice...the convert doesn't hurt too much since they did not "over do it"...but the margin does leave some room for concern...I expected it to actually be at the very minimum equal to the Q1 margin...And am sort of disappointed by that...Obviously the beat was nice....two times beating in a little more than a month...(since last Q numbers came out so late)Well we will have to wait for audited numbers/CC for more information concerning that...but certainly not bad news today....

@Jack I do agree with you that solely looking at federal tax incentives doesn't give you a clear picture...But still there are only a handful of states who provide incentives enough to get solar off the ground...I mean a considerable amount....Not the tiny amounts of today...and concerning Spain the incentive cut will be bigger than in Germany but that is no reason for concern....A problem would be a cap....But as I stated above i doubt a cap will come and if it does 750 MW is realistic, and not the 250 MW # that some analysts were throwing around...

And it's looking like my prediction from 6 months ago that Italy will be huge is slowly, but surely, coming true....especially in the South of Italy it can be used very well....Also Switzerland increased incentives this week and the package they proposed and implemented looks quiet decent(but it is a small country but every MW helps)....So i totally agree with you that incentives will increase rather than decrease globally but it is really time for y'all to step up to the plate...

It just cant be that the best idea, so far, is to drill in Alaska (if I understood correctly in a wildlife refuge)!!!!I mean that leaves me speechless....And makes me, to be honest, VERY angry...We all live on this planet together and y'all are doing your best to destroy it...First for years driving your huge SUV's, Air conditioning 24/7 everywhere, and your industry being quiet wasteful concerning fuels when they were cheap and that leads to the destruction of OUR planet...and then as if nothing was learned the best idea is to drill in Alaska....The point is that we have great opportunities and that is due to OUR incentives which got Solar, Wind,etc. off the ground...so please use the technologies that are only available because we subsidized them:)I guess i wasn't so speechless after all;)...With kind regards from Germany CW

PS and if we can "save" the planet and "all" earn a good amount of money while doing it lets go for it right!?!:)Sorry for the mix of politics, lifestyle, into a discussion about stocks but I do believe it is important to talk about these issues...and I am not looking to offend anyone as I lived in your country for a few years and quiet enjoyed my time their....But as I said these issues are important to talk about...though they don't really pertain when talking about stocks...

Chinese Solar Stocks Present Compelling Value

Dear Rana I have many friends at the EU commission for energy and I know a couple guys working for Wacker Chemie(one of the biggest, or the biggest I am not quiet sure, poly producers in the world) so please do not worry about my knowledge about poly contracts, but I do thank you very much for your concern:)

To Vitamin J indeed that comparison is a bit far fetched as I stated before...And I was having quiet the poor day and when i read your guys' comments...you know how it goes:)

@Eric Rulmat - I think you are absolutely right if you are looking for value(yes I said value in the same sentence as solar shares)/growth it is the right time to go for it...These companies trading at these ridiculous P/E ratios...

And they (analysts) say it is bad to invest in Solar because of Spain, and its potential introduction of a 250 MW cap....anyone making that assumption is clearly uninformed about Spain....If they do introduce a cap, which I doubt, it will be around 750 MW(Spains solar industry just simply won't let it happen and many other reasons for that matter)....what could happen is that they slash incentives by 20-30% which wouldn't hurt the Spanish market as much as one would expect(at least in Spain due to its perfect placing on the "solar map")....And the next boom market for solar is Italy which will be the next Spain....And Trina's positioning their is absolutely marvelous as you can see in the contracts signed in the past few weeks their...I think Trina and SPWR (due to the acquisition they made last year) have the best position in that rapidly expanding market....

I think it is quiet obvious...that companies that grow 100%(sometimes more, sometimes less) y-o-y need some money in order to finance their rapid expansion...Obviously they burn more money than they take in at the moment...How could you not with ramping of X amount of lines a year and investing in long-term poly contracts...expanding capacity in some cases three or four fold...(sometimes less but certainly not the point)...Alternative energies are there to stay....

The last advanced country that has to make the step is your guys' country(and your little/big brother the UK...depending how you look at it;))...And it is quiet shameful what is happening with renewables in the US....and I certainly love how everybody complains about Gas prices/Oil prices but nobody looks for solutions...the next "great" American plan is to drill in Alaska....that is the solution...is it really?Quiet impressive:)In any case we are not here to talk politics, otherwise I probably wouldn't stop typing in any case;)

To bring this long post to an end...As you stated the main point you were trying to make is that the companies in the solar industries are just hitting speed bumps...and that is certainly the case...Would I sell my shares because of that no way...Each day is another day shopping for solar shares at ridiculous valuations....The more the American public, and the world(besides the EU), gets involved and begins to grasp what Solar can do for us in the long term the greater will be our returns so enjoy because I do not know how many oppurtunities you will get buying shares at these prices(not saying it couldn't go down a bit more in this bear market but I think we are close to bottoming out)....Kind regards from Germany CW

PS @All....I do encourage you to read Jack Jetiv articles about the solar space I have been involved quiet some time...with plenty of different stocks...But both TSL and CSIQ were his picks(well he wrote some articles and I got more informed about them and tend to agree with him in most things)....With one working out quiet well the other one lagging...But IMO he has a great understanding for the industry....But also bigger companies besides the ones Jack mentioned are worth other looks....with SPWR(probably the best managed company in the whole solar space),LDK, STP...Please beware of FSLR everyone.....check out all the facts there are....Cheap doesn't mean good:)(certainly not meaning their valuation,but the cost of their inefficient panels when size of the area is constrained)

Long ABX, CSIQ, TSL (No shorts at the moment but if FSLR hits $300...)

Chinese Solar Stocks Present Compelling Value

If you guys havent already heard from the uninformed comments posted here...TSL has forward contracts in poly....which would lower their poly costs next year from 12-17%....what WFR will do no clue but that is not my point...

if you guys don't know what you are talking about concerning Trina's Poly positioning...I just wouldn't talk about it...So yeah Rana and Vitamin J do some research or just listen to the CC but thinking or doing some research before you talk is always a good idea:)kind regards from Germany CW

PS good article though some tough comparisons to make:)

Long ABX, CSIQ, TSL

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

These guys get paid mostly in shares.....you should also take that into account

Solar Stocks Show Signs of Life

first of all those are trailing PE's supershot and if you look at the growth rates of these firms you will realize that those numbers are absolutly irrelevant....and @Phily Jim....just because in america you rather subsidize oil and gas firms for some reason doesnt mean their is not a market out their(just that market is not in america, so far, rather than that in spain, germany, and soon italy will boom too so take a look at spwr which positioned itself very well in italy as well due to a takeover of an italian firm)....and maybe it is wiser to subsidze alternative energies rather than to start a war for energy resources in other countries....saves a lot of money and more importantly lives...with kind regards from Germany

Disclosure: Long SPWR, CSIQ, and STP