bobthenoob's Comments

Whose Notebook PC Business Is Most Valuable?

Fri, 06 Nov 2009 21:03:25 -0500

"Apple: $1,200 in 2009 to $699 by the end of the forecast period"

$699 Average laptop price from Apple? This must be your first time covering AAPL.

Everybody Loves Apple

Wed, 21 Oct 2009 11:15:25 -0400

Where were these analysts when AAPL was at $78 earlier this year? How high will AAPL go? Look at the stock chart from Oct 2005 low of $23 to present <finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=5y>. Too bad Cramer was the only one yelling that the stock would go over $200 a few months ago.

The Case for Shorting Apple

Mon, 19 Oct 2009 20:01:53 -0400

"Apple earnings set new record; shares explode in after-hours trading
...
Apple's shares exploded in after-hours trading. Having closed at $189.86, shares leaped more than 13 points in the next hour and 40 minutes to $202.87 — an all-time high."

brainstormtech.blogs.f.../

Hey shorties, maybe you'll get your shirts back tomorrow? or maybe loose more?

Apple Apps' Incredible Success Has Many Marketing Implications

Fri, 02 Oct 2009 10:09:34 -0400

"brewer:
All software should be distributed this way. When will Apple make an app store for their Macs?"

Thanks to highly efficient SDK, most iPhone/Touch apps are less than 1 mb in size so downloading takes only a few seconds. It would be nice to have a central place to look up computer apps though Adobe CS4 Design Premium came with 2 install DVDs, that would probably take several days to download.

Prepare for the Tablet Wars

Sun, 27 Sep 2009 12:57:41 -0400

Tablet wars? I seriously doubt Apple will be introducing one anytime soon. Costs, battery runtime and weight are probable reasons keeping Apple from releasing one and running Windows XP on the PC side is reason why it continues to be a product failure on the PC side.

I would expect an Apple tablet computer that has a battery runtime of 6-8 hrs, weighs less than 3 lbs, no more than 8x10x.5" thick and can run both regular OSX apps and iphone apps.

BTW, that rumored Courier tablet from MSFT looks heavy and with 2 screens, would need a bigger battery than a regular laptop.

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 10:53:16 -0400

"...including the ability to stream music over the Web to a PC. The Zune can also link to a television. Apple's Touch can do neither."

From Apple.com:
"Apple Component AV Cable
Connect an iPod to your television with the Apple Component AV Cable, gather up your friends, and watch videos or slideshows together on the big screen. You can also connect the Component AV Cable to your stereo or powered speakers for a room-filling audio experience."
store.apple.com/us/pro...

You can also stream music from iPod Touch or iPhone:
lifehacker.com/317787/...

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

Fri, 18 Sep 2009 09:30:20 -0400

"Derek Stivers: While MSFT can afford to lose the Zune completely, AAPL would be lost without their iPod."

At least Apple makes money on everything they sell, unlike MSFT which loses money on Xbox and Zune sales. I don't see anyone else gaining ground on the iPod, it so dominates the mP3 player market that Apple competes with itself when they introduce new models.

Apple iPhone 3GS vs. Palm Pre: Are Consumers Satisfied?

Thu, 10 Sep 2009 13:28:12 -0400

All the fuss about iPhone's lack of multitasking on third-party apps didn't even show up on the iPhone dislikes and proved to be a non-issue. I already know what the #1 thing the anti-AAPL and MSFT shills will say... all 30 million iPhone users must be drinking the kool-aid ;P

Microsoft Launches SDK to Help Developers Integrate Bing into the iPhone

Fri, 28 Aug 2009 04:01:32 -0400

whats so hard about typing or bookmarking bing.com instead of replacing the default search? techcrunch is nothing but a FUD machine and now probably funded my microshaft.

The Case for Shorting Apple

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 13:26:51 -0400

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 12:41 PM
This is the "PR" type of guy I have been talking about, all hype, makes the stock look good in every sentence.

Go to his bio, no information, no credentials, he either works for Apple, owns the stock and is plugging it, or works for a company that is long the stock and is plugging it.

Also Notice, no disclosure..."

So you short AAPL and post negative crap with no links to support it. And your point is?

Just look at AAPL quarter after quarter the past five years if you think they're hiding anything. Here's my disclosure if you failed to see it based on my posts... I'm AAPL long.

You're just bitter because you bet on the wrong stock LOL

The Case for Shorting Apple

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 13:12:14 -0400

TechTrader is full of BS...

AAPL
167.67 at 9:47 <-- you short AAPL

167.01 at 10:16
167.02 at 10:18 <--you posted at SA below

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 10:18 AM:
Current position: Day Trader, short at around 9:47 AM, looking to get out, its around 10:16"

167:41 at 10:20
167.47 at 10:22
167.59 at 10:24
167.64 at 10:26
167.55 at 10:28
167.55 at 10:30
167.47 at 10:32
167.43 at 10:34 <-- this was the lowest price AAPL traded after you posted at 10:18 and have not dipped this low as of 12:27 when you posted that you got out.

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 12:27 PM:
Apple's price will sometimes spike first thing in the morning, and then has a quick sell off. As a "day trader", an hour is a long time for me. My average sell price was $167.69, I got out at and average 167.07. A total of a little over 5,000 shares"

167.48 at 10:36
167.70 at 10:38
167.94 at 10:40
167.90 at 10:42
167.92 at 10:44
167.92 at 10:46
167.88 at 10:48
167.90 at 10:50
168.11 at 10:52
168.45 at 10:54
168.55 at 10:56

I just don't see how you're able to average at 167.07.

The Case for Shorting Apple

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 10:54:03 -0400

To AAPL shorts, here's more for you to ponder...

"iPhone market share grew 375% in Q2
Sales of Nokia's (NOK) Symbian smartphones are drifting. Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is gaining on RIM's (RIMM) BlackBerry. Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Mobile is still sinking. And the launch of the Palm (PALM) Pre barely made a ripple in the gobal smartphone market.

Those were the headlines from the smartphone portion of Gartner's 2009 Q2 mobile phone report, which saw smartphone sales grow 27% even as overall mobile phone sales, feeling recessionary pressure, fell 6%.

In this context, Apple was the clear winner. Its iPhone sales, as Gartner counts them, grew more than 500% year to year, and its market share, as we figure it, grew 375%."
brainstormtech.blogs.f...

"Blackberry, iPhone sales up in down mobile market"
sanjose.bizjournals.co...

"Apple Inc (AAPL): Current Valuation Still Reasonable"
financial-alchemist.bl...
"Apple Inc. (nasd:AAPL) $162.83- Despite Apple shares rising more than 100% from its 2009 low of $78, the stock still appears to be attractively valued especially as a long-term holding. Using cash-flow and non-GAAP earnings, AAPL trades at less than 15x on a trailing 12-month basis. Since sales and cash flows were likely significantly depressed over that time period due to the sharp economic contraction, demand should improve considerably in the quarters ahead. Thus, forward multiples would be even lower given the anticipated rebound in sales and earnings growth.

The modest price multiple at which AAPL currently trades leads me to conclude that investors are: 1) Attributing the slowdown in Mac and iPod segments to a permanent secular decline, rather than temporary weakness consistent with economic contractions. 2) Ignoring/underapprecia... the growth potential of the iPhone and products yet to be introduced.

Non-GAAP Earnings & Cash Flow:
Apple has reported $5.72 GAAP EPS for the past 4 quarters combined (ttm). However, over the same period, Apple has earned $9.23 in non-GAAP EPS (ttm). The non-GAAP figures are a better representation of Apple's earnings power since iPhone revenues are recognized in the period sold and not deferred over a 24 month time frame as is the case with GAAP EPS. The GAAP EPS numbers grossly understate Apple's profitability and cash-flow generation.

Looking at the difference between GAAP revenue and non-GAAP revenue for the past 4 quarters, GAAP revenue would be $7.7B higher, or 22.3% if Apple were not required to account for iPhone sales using the subscription method. Reported EPS (ttm) would have been $3.51, or 61.4% higher as well. The most noticeable difference is the effect iPhone sales have on profit margins. Since the iPhone carries the highest margin for Apple hardware, there is a dramatic impact on gross and net margins when subscription accounting is reversed. Gross margin rises from 35.5% to 39.6%, and net margin increases from 15.0% to 19.7%.

From June 2008 to June 2009, Apple's cash holdings increased $10.35B, from $20.77B to $31.12B. On a per share basis, cash/share increased $11.38, or 50% from $22.85/share (June 2008) to $34.24/share (June 2009). Apple generated $10.26B in free cash flow over the last 4 quarters, or $11.28/share.

GAAP Revenue (ttm) has increased 10.9% compared to the prior trailing 4 quarters, yet non-GAAP sales increased 22.9%, more than double the rate of GAAP revenue growth. GAAP earnings growth (ttm) versus the prior 4 quarters was 10.5% ($5.72 vs. $5.12). However, non-GAAP EPS (ttm) increased 39.9% ($9.23 vs $5.55) compared to the same period for the prior year.

It is clearly evident that the reported GAAP figures widely understates Apple's true performance. Therefore, investors should focus on the non-GAAP numbers and cash flow when evaluating Apple."

The Case for Shorting Apple

Thu, 13 Aug 2009 09:58:04 -0400

"China Unicom to Put iPhones up for Sale Next Month
The telecom operator has procured as many as 5 million WCDMA network-based iPhones from Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for CNY 2,000 each or CNY 10 billion in total, said sources familiar with the matter."
www.tradingmarkets.com.../

"Rumor: NetDragon to Operate iPhone App Store
An unnamed source says Apple (Nasdaq:AAPL) has selected NetDragon (0777.HK) to operate its China application store, reports TechWeb.com.cn. Apple has contacted many local developers to provide applications, the source said."
www.jlmpacificepoch.co...

Business Week have reasons why Apple is more valuable than Google
www.businessweek.com/t...

Please short AAPL ;)

In a Retro Move, Major Labels Introduce Their Own Format

Tue, 11 Aug 2009 12:06:44 -0400

This is the product of years of oligopoly in the music industry, they are totally clueless.

Is the iPhone SDK 3.0 Really All That?

Tue, 04 Aug 2009 08:37:31 -0400

On Mar 23 07:36 AM Ara wrote:

> Didnt this guy say the stock would drop to $80 or less? whatever,
> not expecting him to admit he is wrong but its at $103 today.. hmmm
> nice.. my purchase at $84 is solid..

I hope you held long enough to double your money... APPL now at $166.43 just 5.5 months when it was at $84.

Hey Zack, where are you? I would love to see some fancy charts about how AAPL is going to tank :P

If Apple Does Correct, It Will Do So Soon

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:33:39 -0400

"Victor84: Comments (47)
Whenever anyone publishes anything remotely negative about this company, Apple fanboys/investors vehemently discredit the author and fall on him/her like a pack of rabid dogs. "

AAPL closed at $90.13 Jan 30, 2009. Since then it continues it's way up, now at $163.89.

Cash for Clunkers May Cost Up to $45,354 Per Vehicle

Sat, 01 Aug 2009 17:07:28 -0400

That's what my neighbor did, his car did not qualify for the rebate but ended up buying a car anyway. Though I'm not the type that would spend money needlessly (we have two cars, 2000 Mercury and 2004 Saturn all paid up), this rebate got me into thinking of maybe replacing the 2000 Mercury.

"KingGeithner:
... there are also reports of people who heard about the plan, brought their car in for the trade only to find out they did not qualify, but still bought a new car anyway. The clunker program has likely increased foot traffic into dealers even when people do not qualify for the deal."

How Apple Will Continue to Surprise Investors

Thu, 23 Apr 2009 12:28:20 -0400

How do incompetent analysts like Scott Moritz continue to hold their jobs? They continue to point at declining market shares in a market full of cheap, low margin net books?

Apple: iPhone Now Accounts for 50% of Mobile Web Traffic

Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:37:53 -0400

what do you think will happen after iPhone 3.0 release?

10 Green Energy Gambles for '09

Tue, 24 Feb 2009 01:26:32 -0500

Thanks for the article. I sold half of my EPG last year, though I still believe in this companyl.

Connecting the Dots in a Jobs-Less Apple

Sun, 08 Feb 2009 16:36:41 -0500

Nothing to read here, here's something more interesting...
What's behind "Mike Abramsky’s bad Apple advice"
apple20.blogs.fortune....

If Apple Does Correct, It Will Do So Soon

Thu, 29 Jan 2009 00:42:02 -0500

On Jan 28 01:53 PM zoooomer wrote:

> I still can't understand why Jobs health is an issue? does anyone
> beleive he has been actually running Apple for the last few years?
> If you recall Apple always had supply and demand problems, great
> product that they just couldnt get to consumers, then, Tim Cook was
> hired and BOOM he straightened that out and the everything turned
> around, including the $28 billion in reserves. That would be the
> same Tim Cook that is running Apple today.

I also think Cook is instrumental to Apple's success as much as Steve Jobs. Jobs was also CEO of Pixar until they were bought by Disney, how can he be CEO of two very successful companies at the same time without help?

Apple Supply Chain Checks Show New Cheaper iPhone, Shuffle, MacBook Coming

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:28:25 -0500

oops, "…$149 instead of $199" Well, not completely wrong, they are selling refurb $99 iPhones at ATT.

Apple Supply Chain Checks Show New Cheaper iPhone, Shuffle, MacBook Coming

Wed, 31 Dec 2008 10:23:33 -0500

Maybe a new Shuffle, the rest will not happen. Doesn't make sense to enter the netbook war with less margin while iPhone/iTouch able to do what pc netbooks can do.

Cheaper iPhone? Cheaper as in $49 instead of $99? You're not going to attract more buyers if the ATT service still cost the same. Anyway, the iPhone is a hit why compete with a cheaper version?

Cramer's Stop Trading! Apple Calls Wal-Mart (12/8/09)

Tue, 09 Dec 2008 10:38:10 -0500

While I do agree that baldheaded Cramer is an idiot, I don't think it's bad for AAPL to sell $99 iPhones since it's going to be subsidized by ATT like their $199 iPhone and most likely going to be the 4gb version not the 8gb.

Jim Cramer's Stop Trading! Is Steve Ballmer a Diabolical Genius? (11/19/08)

Thu, 20 Nov 2008 10:23:36 -0500

Nothing new... baldhead Cramer gayfully kneels in front of his buddy and service him any chance he gets. The only "Fast Money" anyone gets is Cramer cashing in on his minions of loser subscribers.

Who Will Win the Home Entertainment Battle?

Fri, 31 Oct 2008 16:36:49 -0400

Xbox360 and the Red Circle of Death <support.microsoft.com/...; ?? This sounds more like a hobby than AppleTV. I'd buy PS3 with blue ray before I consider xbox.

Is Apple More Undervalued Than Other Tech Sector Stocks?

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 10:35:38 -0400

Buybacks is not going to do much and is used by companies as a last resort.

Share Buybacks Make Apple Sweeter

Thu, 30 Oct 2008 10:21:09 -0400

Suckonaghi is always wrong with AAPL and stock buybacks as others already said around the net, is not the best thing to do with Apple's cash. Please don't write anymore about Suckonaghi's crap.

Cramer's Mad Money - The Apple Barometer (10/28/08)

Wed, 29 Oct 2008 13:02:21 -0400

This is not the first time he turned positive towards AAPL, I remember his crap about how iChat was so revolutionary to pump AAPL so be careful about Cramer's real motives, he is pals with Balmer and biased against MSFT competition. Cramer only spreads misinformation and is not the best source for AAPL news or for any stock.