bobthenoob

iPhone Market Share: The Rest of the Story

Doing BOGO just to get better sales number is a sign of desperation. Does it matter who pays for the BOGO BB? The bottom line is, it still cuts into the profit margin. If Verizon is footing the bill then it's costing them more not to carry the iPhone because they have to sell more BB to make up for the BOGO deals. While Nokia and RIM plays catch up with the iPhone, AAPL has created yet another potential money maker in the iPad. It's crazy that AAPL with P/E of 19 and market cap of 177B is still at $195, the same price back in Dec 2008!

The iPad and the Rush to Early Conclusions

i agree that this is temporary and i'm used to initial reaction to any aapl release. @195, i think this is a great opportunity to make a killing in a short amount of time, give a week for it to get back to around 215

5 Reasons Why the Apple iSlate Will Be a Failure

If Apple introduces a tablet next year, they only need to add one thing... allow iPhone docking to enable the following features (I posted this on other blogs):

1. Cell phone calling using existing account and wifi features. No need to have two ATT accounts and no need for cel phone/wifi hardware.

2. iPhone and computer users don't have to buy new software because it will run iPhone apps using the iPhone CPU and also have a built-in Intel C2D CPU as co-processor with ATI or nVidia GPU to run full OSX apps (and also run Windows7 via Bootcamp or VMware). This combination will make the iSlate the fastest portable computer/cel phone.

3. Will use the iPhone camera as a second camera to the built-in one in the iSlate. It would be positioned opposite the other, the built-in one is for iChat/video MMS facing the user. A real video phone solution which is going to be the main reason to buy one.

Apple already offers a $599 computer in a 6.5 sq inch Mac MIni. It uses 2.5" HD and SODIMMs used by laptops, just add LCD and 8 hr batteries already used in laptops. <www.apple.com/macmini/...;

This docking feature will save a lot of money in manufacturing thus will allow Apple it's 35% margin and still sell for $600-$800.

Whose Notebook PC Business Is Most Valuable?

"Apple: $1,200 in 2009 to $699 by the end of the forecast period"

$699 Average laptop price from Apple? This must be your first time covering AAPL.

Everybody Loves Apple

Where were these analysts when AAPL was at $78 earlier this year? How high will AAPL go? Look at the stock chart from Oct 2005 low of $23 to present <finance.yahoo.com/echa...;range=5y>. Too bad Cramer was the only one yelling that the stock would go over $200 a few months ago.

The Case for Shorting Apple

"Apple earnings set new record; shares explode in after-hours trading
...
Apple's shares exploded in after-hours trading. Having closed at $189.86, shares leaped more than 13 points in the next hour and 40 minutes to $202.87 — an all-time high."

brainstormtech.blogs.f.../

Hey shorties, maybe you'll get your shirts back tomorrow? or maybe loose more?

Apple Apps' Incredible Success Has Many Marketing Implications

<i>"brewer:
All software should be distributed this way. When will Apple make an app store for their Macs?"</i>

Thanks to highly efficient SDK, most iPhone/Touch apps are less than 1 mb in size so downloading takes only a few seconds. It would be nice to have a central place to look up computer apps though Adobe CS4 Design Premium came with 2 install DVDs, that would probably take several days to download.

Prepare for the Tablet Wars

Tablet wars? I seriously doubt Apple will be introducing one anytime soon. Costs, battery runtime and weight are probable reasons keeping Apple from releasing one and running Windows XP on the PC side is reason why it continues to be a product failure on the PC side.

I would expect an Apple tablet computer that has a battery runtime of 6-8 hrs, weighs less than 3 lbs, no more than 8x10x.5" thick and can run both regular OSX apps and iphone apps.

BTW, that rumored Courier tablet from MSFT looks heavy and with 2 screens, would need a bigger battery than a regular laptop.

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

"...including the ability to stream music over the Web to a PC. The Zune can also link to a television. Apple's Touch can do neither."

From Apple.com:
"Apple Component AV Cable
Connect an iPod to your television with the Apple Component AV Cable, gather up your friends, and watch videos or slideshows together on the big screen. You can also connect the Component AV Cable to your stereo or powered speakers for a room-filling audio experience."
store.apple.com/us/pro...

You can also stream music from iPod Touch or iPhone:
lifehacker.com/317787/...

Sorry Zune, Apple's Won MP3 Market

"Derek Stivers: While MSFT can afford to lose the Zune completely, AAPL would be lost without their iPod."

At least Apple makes money on everything they sell, unlike MSFT which loses money on Xbox and Zune sales. I don't see anyone else gaining ground on the iPod, it so dominates the mP3 player market that Apple competes with itself when they introduce new models.

Apple iPhone 3GS vs. Palm Pre: Are Consumers Satisfied?

All the fuss about iPhone's lack of multitasking on third-party apps didn't even show up on the iPhone dislikes and proved to be a non-issue. I already know what the #1 thing the anti-AAPL and MSFT shills will say... all 30 million iPhone users must be drinking the kool-aid ;P

Microsoft Launches SDK to Help Developers Integrate Bing into the iPhone

whats so hard about typing or bookmarking bing.com instead of replacing the default search? techcrunch is nothing but a FUD machine and now probably funded my microshaft.

The Case for Shorting Apple

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 12:41 PM
This is the "PR" type of guy I have been talking about, all hype, makes the stock look good in every sentence.

Go to his bio, no information, no credentials, he either works for Apple, owns the stock and is plugging it, or works for a company that is long the stock and is plugging it.

Also Notice, no disclosure..."

So you short AAPL and post negative crap with no links to support it. And your point is?

Just look at AAPL quarter after quarter the past five years if you think they're hiding anything. Here's my disclosure if you failed to see it based on my posts... I'm AAPL long.

You're just bitter because you bet on the wrong stock LOL

The Case for Shorting Apple

TechTrader is full of BS...

AAPL
167.67 at 9:47 <-- you short AAPL

167.01 at 10:16
167.02 at 10:18 <--you posted at SA below

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 10:18 AM:
Current position: Day Trader, short at around 9:47 AM, looking to get out, its around 10:16"

167:41 at 10:20
167.47 at 10:22
167.59 at 10:24
167.64 at 10:26
167.55 at 10:28
167.55 at 10:30
167.47 at 10:32
167.43 at 10:34 <-- this was the lowest price AAPL traded after you posted at 10:18 and have not dipped this low as of 12:27 when you posted that you got out.

"Techtrader10 Aug 13 12:27 PM:
Apple's price will sometimes spike first thing in the morning, and then has a quick sell off. As a "day trader", an hour is a long time for me. My average sell price was $167.69, I got out at and average 167.07. A total of a little over 5,000 shares"

167.48 at 10:36
167.70 at 10:38
167.94 at 10:40
167.90 at 10:42
167.92 at 10:44
167.92 at 10:46
167.88 at 10:48
167.90 at 10:50
168.11 at 10:52
168.45 at 10:54
168.55 at 10:56

I just don't see how you're able to average at 167.07.

The Case for Shorting Apple

To AAPL shorts, here's more for you to ponder...

"iPhone market share grew 375% in Q2
Sales of Nokia's (NOK) Symbian smartphones are drifting. Apple's (AAPL) iPhone is gaining on RIM's (RIMM) BlackBerry. Microsoft's (MSFT) Windows Mobile is still sinking. And the launch of the Palm (PALM) Pre barely made a ripple in the gobal smartphone market.

Those were the headlines from the smartphone portion of Gartner's 2009 Q2 mobile phone report, which saw smartphone sales grow 27% even as overall mobile phone sales, feeling recessionary pressure, fell 6%.

In this context, Apple was the clear winner. Its iPhone sales, as Gartner counts them, grew more than 500% year to year, and its market share, as we figure it, grew 375%."
brainstormtech.blogs.f...

"Blackberry, iPhone sales up in down mobile market"
sanjose.bizjournals.co...

"Apple Inc (AAPL): Current Valuation Still Reasonable"
financial-alchemist.bl...
"Apple Inc. (nasd:AAPL) $162.83- Despite Apple shares rising more than 100% from its 2009 low of $78, the stock still appears to be attractively valued especially as a long-term holding. Using cash-flow and non-GAAP earnings, AAPL trades at less than 15x on a trailing 12-month basis. Since sales and cash flows were likely significantly depressed over that time period due to the sharp economic contraction, demand should improve considerably in the quarters ahead. Thus, forward multiples would be even lower given the anticipated rebound in sales and earnings growth.

The modest price multiple at which AAPL currently trades leads me to conclude that investors are: 1) Attributing the slowdown in Mac and iPod segments to a permanent secular decline, rather than temporary weakness consistent with economic contractions. 2) Ignoring/underapprecia... the growth potential of the iPhone and products yet to be introduced.

Non-GAAP Earnings & Cash Flow:
Apple has reported $5.72 GAAP EPS for the past 4 quarters combined (ttm). However, over the same period, Apple has earned $9.23 in non-GAAP EPS (ttm). The non-GAAP figures are a better representation of Apple's earnings power since iPhone revenues are recognized in the period sold and not deferred over a 24 month time frame as is the case with GAAP EPS. The GAAP EPS numbers grossly understate Apple's profitability and cash-flow generation.

Looking at the difference between GAAP revenue and non-GAAP revenue for the past 4 quarters, GAAP revenue would be $7.7B higher, or 22.3% if Apple were not required to account for iPhone sales using the subscription method. Reported EPS (ttm) would have been $3.51, or 61.4% higher as well. The most noticeable difference is the effect iPhone sales have on profit margins. Since the iPhone carries the highest margin for Apple hardware, there is a dramatic impact on gross and net margins when subscription accounting is reversed. Gross margin rises from 35.5% to 39.6%, and net margin increases from 15.0% to 19.7%.

From June 2008 to June 2009, Apple's cash holdings increased $10.35B, from $20.77B to $31.12B. On a per share basis, cash/share increased $11.38, or 50% from $22.85/share (June 2008) to $34.24/share (June 2009). Apple generated $10.26B in free cash flow over the last 4 quarters, or $11.28/share.

GAAP Revenue (ttm) has increased 10.9% compared to the prior trailing 4 quarters, yet non-GAAP sales increased 22.9%, more than double the rate of GAAP revenue growth. GAAP earnings growth (ttm) versus the prior 4 quarters was 10.5% ($5.72 vs. $5.12). However, non-GAAP EPS (ttm) increased 39.9% ($9.23 vs $5.55) compared to the same period for the prior year.

It is clearly evident that the reported GAAP figures widely understates Apple's true performance. Therefore, investors should focus on the non-GAAP numbers and cash flow when evaluating Apple."