svosavvy

Option Trader Friday Outlook: Is the Dollar Going UUP?

nice article about dollar relationships. I also wonder what happens when treasury yields are actually bid up in now "competitive" auctions. Maybe fixed instrument yields as a whole increase and become competitve and people hungry for yield will rebalance out of stocks to an extent.

Invest in Silver Over Gold

I was driving at your silver/gold relationship. I am actually bullish on silver, and have had and continue a long term position in it. As far as inflation goes to merely talk about monetary expansion is like getting the sports report but only getting one teams score and not the others. Fractional reserve banking and the "hot" (external inflows) money issue I agree are of extreme importance imho when considering prospects for inflation, however, I find it highly disconcerting that credit contraction is hardly brought up. Seems we only talk supply and not demand. How can we inflate when the consumer who is supposedly 70% of gdp has had their credit dry up. Sure the banks have been liquified via the gov't but the spenders are broke. I am a big believer in needs based inflation in time (couple of years'ish imho), I see food and energy inflating on demand, and consumer crap hitting the skids.

Invest in Silver Over Gold

or is gold 30% overvalued

Portugal and Greece Downgrades Offer Silver Lining for Yield

good article and good points. Right now I can barely stand the idea of bonds, there is just no yield, so I stay horrifically out of balance. I am afraid to pull the trigger on these historically low yields as am afraid I will be stuck with them if the par sinks in a potentially high rate environment which may be on our horizon. I bought some TIPS in the spring, but, that is about it. Almost bought some 10yr GE program notes for 5.5 yield. So yeah I am artificially overweight stocks and cash because nothing I see from the fixed market piques my interest. I also feel that investment in junk debt while giving higher yield also would suffer from the sinking par blues if rates take off in a couple years. I think the fed walking away from the treasury markets will allow bidders to take up the yield in the future.

Michael Mauboussin's Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Is Short but Sweet

We fight the battles of our childhood in adulthood.

Michael Mauboussin's Think Twice: Harnessing the Power of Counterintuition Is Short but Sweet

we always seek what we can't have

Nearly two-thirds of U.S. money managers are bullish on stocks through the middle of next year, Barron's fall survey finds. Money managers expect three sectors to outperform: tech energy and health care. They're bearish on financials and consumer cyclicals, and netural on oil. Top stock pick: Microsoft (MSFT).

So... does this mean the rally is 2/3 over? LOL

Despite Declining Value, Dollar's Status as World's Reserve Currency Is Safe...For Now

Thank you Ms Chu for your contribution, I always enjoy reading your thoughts. I am overweight the same ideas you speak of. Unlike everyone else I actually do hold out a small belief that people can change their behavior especially after a profound event that crushes previously self reinforced ideologies.

As a recovering dialectic junkie, I seek balance and "quality"

This has led me to only mostly believe in dollar demise. I wonder what happens if we see a radical shift in the behavior of the american consumer and consumers who behave like americans.

Here is my list of long shots. What if:

1. the american consumer radically changes their consumption behavior in regards to oil. My belief is a reduced demand for oil strengthens what it is denominated in. A major shift to domestic nat gas(power generation as well as vroom vroom) could be a major caveat as well imho.

2. The american savings rate goes up. From what I can see the contraction of credit will mitigate somewhat the potential of US consumers to get into trouble like they did before. I believe the savings rate has nowhere to go but up or flatline. The contraction of credit is huge imho. Without more plastic it will be more difficult for people to go on benders at walmart.

3. The need by banks for private capital once the federal backstop measures are reeled in. Hopefully, we will see a banking regulation structure that disallows insane leverage. This will require higher levels of reserve. If gov't money gets taken off the table, which it should once we move past crisis mode, this will create a need for private dollars. Bankers then would actually have to go out and compete for private money vis a vis interest rates. Fair returns for private money would attract them back to the system.

Like I said before I have positioned myself to gain from a weaker dollar. Anyway this is my list of longshots, nothing in life is ever a slam dunk. Life is not a one way street, anyone remember the 90's high taxes, a budget surplus? 5$ silver ringing any bells? I know it is laughable to bring up stuff like this when we are in the stew here.

Just the ramblings of a country bumpkin.

p.s. does anybody know a good way to invest in the Icelandic krona other than getting a boxfull mailed to your door?

Netflix Buying Back Shares with No Room for Error

Honestly, levering in a low rate environment may not be such a bad thing. Especially when you are on the cusp of a paradigm shift. That shift being that you request media instead of waiting for that media at a certain place, time, or channel. Just ramblings of a johnny too soon selling for a nice profit at 36.75, ouch.

Bond Expert: Tuesday Outlook

here here macro man, I agree and would also add that there has been a rush for the exits the last couple days in the TBT as well.

Portfolio Building with TIPS ETFs: Is Now the Time?

TIPS have existed in a period of high inflation, that would be the last 10 years minus last year.

Portfolio Building with TIPS ETFs: Is Now the Time?

I am going to forego tips etf's, I am long the long out tips with a defined coupon floor of $25 on the 1000 so nowhere to go but up or sideways. The day before yesterday they were selling at a 7% premium over what I paid for them in the spring, not bad for a gov't instrument. I wanted the 20 year tips, because I plan to sell well before they mature, probably in 5-10yrs they will have a nice time premium working for them as well as potential stagflation. Anyway that's my plan, sometimes you eat the bear sometimes the bear eats you.

E*Trade: Expect a Takeover Any Day Now

Imho, I am very satisfied with the etrade trading platform, always helpful and eager. Except if you are a small fish you still have to turn to cnbc for reaI time quotes and higher priced trades what's up with that. I got a prick on the bond desk a couple months ago, but, this platform is a turn key op for a newcomer. That is why I can believe they get bought by a retail broker to keep out new competition. I can really believe in their retail broker accounts. I am indirectly long through etfc leap puts sold at $3.90

Options Trader Tuesday Outlook: Gordon Brown's Booster Shot

It is uncanny how similar the free money guy and Bob Pisani look. Perhaps, it is his secret superhero identity.

Lessons from a Market 'En Fuego'

It's the classical vs romantics all over again. If you are a classical then you follow pure numbers and algorithms and they all come up way bearish here. If you are a romantic you follow sentiment and here you are high as a kite. Seems to me the really good investors are pragmatic offspring of the two. I like when Soros says in the alchemy of finance (paraphrased badly) a trend will continue until all those who fought it are laid low. It feels more toppy here because I have been seeing a few bears flip bullish these last few weeks. Once everybody finally gets drunk on the kool aid then I will be running for the exit.