Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here. [View news story]
Barron's is sh*t always has been, I remember a couple years ago a cover they had "short these stocks" with a guy in his boxers. It was right in the middle of a rip your face off rally. Maybe he lost his shorts listening to them.
More from Goldman's oil call: With the Seaway pipeline ramping capacity by early 2013 to 400K b/d from the current 150K, Goldman expects the current $20+ spread between Brent and WTI crude to narrow to just $4 over the coming months. A chart of BNO vs. USO YTD. Is a reversal coming or is Goldman just stocking up on Brent? [View news story]
come on Ray don't you know their doing g-ds work;)
The yen is on the move (as much as a currency that mostly flatlines can be) on headlines from the Kyodo news service suggesting the government is set to craft a new stimulus plan. This one is sure to work. The dollar +0.4% vs. the yen and buying ¥79.95. FXY -0.3%. Japan shares ETF: EWJ +1.3%. [View news story]
if the yen can weaken meaningfully it will help the exporters, could be a turn in the tide of negative sentiment for the japan autos and heavy's
Managing Interest Rate Risk In An Income-Oriented Investment Portfolio (Part 1) [View article]
long GIM thanks for the article. The recent lowering of yield was imo a responsible move by the custodians entrusted with running this instrument. Instead of relying on fiction to maintain the yield by robbing peter (the underlying value) to pay paul (the distribution) this is a positive in my book that grown ups are running the fund. No one should fool themselves if China sneezes you are going to feel the breeze in this one. That being said the risk fits my profile.
Credit Suisse's Lack Of Capital Presents A Buying Opportunity [View article]
The SNB ought to give them a low cost loan instead of their buying euros if they are so worried. That aside, Q1 was a dud they won't do $2.66 this year. Dividend will reflect business performance and outcomes for the year. I would not get hyper revved up for a big dividend this year. Still I would expect them to pay something. This equity is screaming cheap here imo, that can be what an investor hangs their hat on this year as they muddle through. I don't know about you, but, I personally would be interested to see how much "hinterland" money they sop up from the hemorrhaging piigs banks. It would appear that the number one export from Italy to switzerland would be private wealth in the form of gold bars squirreled away in the nooks and crannies of cars crossing the border. Though you may see the property market cool off as it was a rough year for crazy dictators. Long CS with intention to add on further weakness long UBS 2014 leap calls. The action in UBS was real interesting, they went up right after their tongue lashing, bottom?
A slow-growing economy may be worrisome for stocks, says Martin Fridson, but it's great for junk bonds, as it provides enough for issuers to cover interest payments. Investors pulled $3B from high-yield mutual funds for the week ended May 23, the most in 9 months and a big change from the $36.6B poured into those same funds from January to April. [View news story]
There is a Martin Fridson who wrote a book 'financial statement analysis'. If this is the same person my hats off to you it was a great book.
Hedge funds and P-E firms have accumulated almost €60B to acquire loans from European banks that are looking to consolidate their ops, a PWC survey shows. Investors, most of whom are from the U.S., are particularly interested in loans backed by commercial real estate. [View news story]
imo good news for someone like a BX. See their purchasing (stealing) of eurohypo owned loans that are performing at good pricing a few weeks ago.
How To Get Monthly Income By Writing Covered Calls In Your IRA [View article]
As a value/growth hybrid investor, the only thing I can really offer for options strategies are 1. ignore the noise (whoops sorry 1. never lose money:) 2. don't forget either of the rule #1's 3. think deeply about how you view your world and where the puck is headed, options allow you to follow your more wild fantasies without risking the kind of capital grounded in reality. 4. 99% of the time options are overpriced just like stocks this generally benefits the margin seller, remember that. 5. selling a covered call against a good stock is generally a bad call. Your stock has a good day and instead of being a happy shareholder you get blown out if you are comfortable with that (I am) then o.k.
Another place where where you can use options effectively in IRA's that is not spoken of much is asset allocation. You have very constraining contribution allocations in IRA's $5-6000/year. You can use long dated options as stock specific "futures" allocations, kinda like: I want a position in stock ABC because it is cheap now but can't allocate cash to it this year. Get the leap option as a way to get ABC's price action this year with the option to buy with next years money.
To be true to rule #1 don't lose money, you need to be extremely adept at this options game which is definitely not most IRA investors. Options in IRA's are for what I call "Invaders" part INVestor part trADERS a rare breed. Something as an aside that most IRA people don't know is if you exercise an option or have an option exercised on you it most likely will generate a commission at most brokerage houses something to bear in mind if you float out a batch and they are getting exercised by people at different times.
JPM I initiated a position around thanksgiving time, check my stocktalks for proof. JPM is a heck of a bank, they do have many "good will" chips in their corner most notably Jamie Dimon, also the fact that going into the meltdown really it was mutually assured destruction no two ways about it. In that environment you have to ask yourself what makes one bank get a monster loan to buy another bank instead of joining them at the gallows. How do you disseminate this... I mean really. You want fundamentals here you go: PE<10 of last years earnings (pretty decent) price/sales at I believe 1.68 which for a bank under 2 is pretty reasonable really once we get back to an environment where banks actually conduct banking which is not a flashy 5. Still trades less than book I believe which it is still hard to judge book here imo the world is still pretty crazy for hard and fast asset values. Strong stock buyback strategy here is good at this valuation imo, dividend is only taking about 25% of earnings give or take, strong and sustainable imo. If you want some insurance my strategy has been buy the stock collect the nice dividend, then sell the 50$ leap call against your position. If your stock dips into mid/high 30's buy calls back keep stock pocket the option proceed and dividend, wait for it to come back to mid/low 40's sell the call again. If we get a european sh@tstorm and it get into the low 30's buy more stock. If it totally tanks being that it is a correlated proxy overall bend over and enjoy the ride:)
If you feel like you missed JPM when looking at a 9 month chart which is really how you should feel, then imo (NO CREDENTIALS WHATSOEVER!) look across the pond at BCS. You are going to find nearly the mirror image of JPM imo. Charismatic leader you got it in Bob(bestofbreed:) Diamond. Cheap fundamentals similar to JPM. Basically in the same businesses commercial banking, private client banking&investments, world presence aggressive opportunistic. From what a person can tell not as much rigor bloat on the balance sheet as their peers although I like JPM assets best. Just my 2 cents.
Also I think JPM is marketing to a very sharp customer demographic these days which I think is really smart. That customer I think is a mid 30's professional female wielding an ipad and looking at buying a new car that is one of these low priced with a high priced badge type. If you believe in the consumer retail barbell strategy as I do, then there is milk&honey at the bottom of that top barbell. Welcome to the new middle class my friends. Grab a slate, freedom, or ink card. Laugh at the dorky young male banker in their commercials making a fool of himself and realize the statement. Bankers are not scary they are dorky young males not as smart as us young females. Have a nice day.
There's a growing sense that "much more needs to be done" to restore confidence in Chesapeake (CHK -2%) than only letting the Founders Well Participation Program expire. Analysts say the board should separate the chairman and CEO positions or even fire the whole bunch, but "given the litany of historic indications and most recent indications, this board appears to be incapable of doing that." [View news story]
Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here. [View news story]
More from Goldman's oil call: With the Seaway pipeline ramping capacity by early 2013 to 400K b/d from the current 150K, Goldman expects the current $20+ spread between Brent and WTI crude to narrow to just $4 over the coming months. A chart of BNO vs. USO YTD. Is a reversal coming or is Goldman just stocking up on Brent? [View news story]
The yen is on the move (as much as a currency that mostly flatlines can be) on headlines from the Kyodo news service suggesting the government is set to craft a new stimulus plan. This one is sure to work. The dollar +0.4% vs. the yen and buying ¥79.95. FXY -0.3%. Japan shares ETF: EWJ +1.3%. [View news story]
long HMC
Managing Interest Rate Risk In An Income-Oriented Investment Portfolio (Part 1) [View article]
Will Pandora Become Netscape? [View article]
Credit Suisse's Lack Of Capital Presents A Buying Opportunity [View article]
Jun. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 74.1 vs. 77.5 expected and 79.3 prior. [View news story]
A slow-growing economy may be worrisome for stocks, says Martin Fridson, but it's great for junk bonds, as it provides enough for issuers to cover interest payments. Investors pulled $3B from high-yield mutual funds for the week ended May 23, the most in 9 months and a big change from the $36.6B poured into those same funds from January to April. [View news story]
Hedge funds and P-E firms have accumulated almost €60B to acquire loans from European banks that are looking to consolidate their ops, a PWC survey shows. Investors, most of whom are from the U.S., are particularly interested in loans backed by commercial real estate. [View news story]
JPMorgan Is Near A Buy Point [View article]
How To Get Monthly Income By Writing Covered Calls In Your IRA [View article]
JPMorgan Is Near A Buy Point [View article]
How To Get Monthly Income By Writing Covered Calls In Your IRA [View article]
Another place where where you can use options effectively in IRA's that is not spoken of much is asset allocation. You have very constraining contribution allocations in IRA's $5-6000/year. You can use long dated options as stock specific "futures" allocations, kinda like: I want a position in stock ABC because it is cheap now but can't allocate cash to it this year. Get the leap option as a way to get ABC's price action this year with the option to buy with next years money.
To be true to rule #1 don't lose money, you need to be extremely adept at this options game which is definitely not most IRA investors. Options in IRA's are for what I call "Invaders" part INVestor part trADERS a rare breed. Something as an aside that most IRA people don't know is if you exercise an option or have an option exercised on you it most likely will generate a commission at most brokerage houses something to bear in mind if you float out a batch and they are getting exercised by people at different times.
JPMorgan Is Near A Buy Point [View article]
If you feel like you missed JPM when looking at a 9 month chart which is really how you should feel, then imo (NO CREDENTIALS WHATSOEVER!) look across the pond at BCS. You are going to find nearly the mirror image of JPM imo. Charismatic leader you got it in Bob(bestofbreed:) Diamond. Cheap fundamentals similar to JPM. Basically in the same businesses commercial banking, private client banking&investments, world presence aggressive opportunistic. From what a person can tell not as much rigor bloat on the balance sheet as their peers although I like JPM assets best. Just my 2 cents.
Also I think JPM is marketing to a very sharp customer demographic these days which I think is really smart. That customer I think is a mid 30's professional female wielding an ipad and looking at buying a new car that is one of these low priced with a high priced badge type. If you believe in the consumer retail barbell strategy as I do, then there is milk&honey at the bottom of that top barbell. Welcome to the new middle class my friends. Grab a slate, freedom, or ink card. Laugh at the dorky young male banker in their commercials making a fool of himself and realize the statement. Bankers are not scary they are dorky young males not as smart as us young females. Have a nice day.
There's a growing sense that "much more needs to be done" to restore confidence in Chesapeake (CHK -2%) than only letting the Founders Well Participation Program expire. Analysts say the board should separate the chairman and CEO positions or even fire the whole bunch, but "given the litany of historic indications and most recent indications, this board appears to be incapable of doing that." [View news story]