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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • Amid Weak Expectations, AGCO Looks Like A Strong Buy [View article]
    Thank you for the info.
    Mar 27 09:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amid Weak Expectations, AGCO Looks Like A Strong Buy [View article]
    I would love to hear from a "credentialed bear" on where the warts are in this one. Honestly, I wonder if the shorts aren't just part of a pairs hedge in some big portfolio's somewhere?
    Mar 25 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amid Weak Expectations, AGCO Looks Like A Strong Buy [View article]
    I have been watching AGCO as of late. 11% short interest is a little disconcerting. It will be interesting to see if share buybacks can help the stock hang in there. From what I have read it would appear that they filed for authorization to buyback up to 10% of float.

    I feel like the Jens Weidmann comments this morning may signal "morning in Europe" The fact you have a prominent German stating outright that they should do a QE in the EU could represent a sea change that austerity is not working. Free money in Europe would be a big deal to these guys. Ukraine could be a long term net positive in a big way down the road in my opinion. Shooting from the hip, one of the most effectively crappy (besides invading) things the russian army can do is hangout on the border and basically menace and incite the easterners. Any of this will lead to logistic problems in the business that is Ukraine which is farming. Ukraine is ugly right now and buried in debt, their farmers live hand to mouth with little modern farming making them sell at their most inconvenient. They appear to me like renters of something they "own". Like trading one master for another they went from collectivist to something that resembles US sharecropping of 100 years ago. If money from the west can flow in after all this shakes out you might see them buy grain storage so they don't get creamed by the crummy prices of their buyers. More liquid market participation choice of sell or move to storage. The longer AGCO owns GSI the more intelligent that acquisition will look.

    Yeah Deere may sell a lot tractors in EU, but, so does AGCO. They are your down on the farm pure play. Deere sells a lot of things that aren't tractors. Deere sells a lot of tractors in Germany, but, so does Fendt.

    No position yet just looking. Would like to start a pos at $50 and buy it down. I would like to see a long dated option like a 2 year on the stock, but, they are all too short dated for me. The dividend is clownish, if you got it out to 40% of earnings it would make those shorted shares expensive to rent. Make someone think twice before shorting. It would appear that there has been a high short interest for years, the dividend idea would lead to alpha decay over the long period for the shorter. Right now they have cheap rent.
    Mar 25 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No Lack Of Opportunity In Ag Markets Says M6 Capital [View article]
    Hi,

    I guess I don't see where you are at on wheat. I see corn and beans opinion. Just curious about your thoughts on wheat.

    Thanks
    Mar 18 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Dividend Stocks To Buy Now And 2 To Wait For [View article]
    I think it is worth noting on ED that there is some volatility surrounding the much anticipated rate decision. It doesn't have the momo volatility of like a tsla or nflx but for a utility there is some there. My opinion is if things were hunky dory it should be about 10% higher. Long story short they (ED) asked for a rate increase earlier in the year to repair their damaged infrastructure from sandy. Long about summer people (analysts) thought they were going to get it. Then Gov Cuomo stepped in and said no rates are high enough and lambasted the whole idea of a rate increase. Gov Cuomo in case you are not a new yorker is extremely popular and crossing him imo if you are a politician is a bad idea and puc's or psc's as they are called now are quite political imo. Anyway the rate increase is still in limbo as far as I know, we should have heard by now. Anyway that is a bad news cloud around ED which is good to initiate a position, however, I would not add a full position. If they get rejected by the psc I imagine they will have another bad day on the market, look for a high volume flush out then get in. On the flip side if they get their increase or a favorable contract or both you could see it get back toward 60. You should also be careful with low growth utilities in this environment anyway. These guys are good for defensive positions, but, if we finally get some economic warmth from the economy getting some footing these guys will lag big time. Merry Holidays
    Dec 24 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where was this story 50% ago? Its cover showing a tombstone engraved "R.I.P. PC," Barron's says DELL and H-P (HPQ) will fade from view. Next up for trouble could be Microsoft (MSFT), seemingly cheap at 9X 2013 earnings, but which reported sales at its Windows unit off by a third Y/Y after backing out pre-sales for Windows 8. The world awaits the launch of Surface at midnight on Friday. More winners/losers here[View news story]
    Barron's is sh*t always has been, I remember a couple years ago a cover they had "short these stocks" with a guy in his boxers. It was right in the middle of a rip your face off rally. Maybe he lost his shorts listening to them.
    Oct 20 10:53 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More from Goldman's oil call: With the Seaway pipeline ramping capacity by early 2013 to 400K b/d from the current 150K, Goldman expects the current $20+ spread between Brent and WTI crude to narrow to just $4 over the coming months. A chart of BNO vs. USO YTD. Is a reversal coming or is Goldman just stocking up on Brent? [View news story]
    come on Ray don't you know their doing g-ds work;)
    Oct 18 09:58 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The yen is on the move (as much as a currency that mostly flatlines can be) on headlines from the Kyodo news service suggesting the government is set to craft a new stimulus plan. This one is sure to work. The dollar +0.4% vs. the yen and buying ¥79.95. FXY -0.3%. Japan shares ETF: EWJ +1.3%[View news story]
    if the yen can weaken meaningfully it will help the exporters, could be a turn in the tide of negative sentiment for the japan autos and heavy's

    long HMC
    Oct 16 11:49 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Managing Interest Rate Risk In An Income-Oriented Investment Portfolio (Part 1) [View article]
    long GIM thanks for the article. The recent lowering of yield was imo a responsible move by the custodians entrusted with running this instrument. Instead of relying on fiction to maintain the yield by robbing peter (the underlying value) to pay paul (the distribution) this is a positive in my book that grown ups are running the fund. No one should fool themselves if China sneezes you are going to feel the breeze in this one. That being said the risk fits my profile.
    Sep 24 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Pandora Become Netscape? [View article]
    aapl should just buy them. Good grief they have enough cash.
    Sep 11 11:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Credit Suisse's Lack Of Capital Presents A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    The SNB ought to give them a low cost loan instead of their buying euros if they are so worried. That aside, Q1 was a dud they won't do $2.66 this year. Dividend will reflect business performance and outcomes for the year. I would not get hyper revved up for a big dividend this year. Still I would expect them to pay something. This equity is screaming cheap here imo, that can be what an investor hangs their hat on this year as they muddle through. I don't know about you, but, I personally would be interested to see how much "hinterland" money they sop up from the hemorrhaging piigs banks. It would appear that the number one export from Italy to switzerland would be private wealth in the form of gold bars squirreled away in the nooks and crannies of cars crossing the border. Though you may see the property market cool off as it was a rough year for crazy dictators. Long CS with intention to add on further weakness long UBS 2014 leap calls. The action in UBS was real interesting, they went up right after their tongue lashing, bottom?
    Jun 17 11:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jun. Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment: 74.1 vs. 77.5 expected and 79.3 prior.  [View news story]
    no sh*t buckwheat, what do you think happens when you scare the hell out of people.
    Jun 15 10:08 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A slow-growing economy may be worrisome for stocks, says Martin Fridson, but it's great for junk bonds, as it provides enough for issuers to cover interest payments. Investors pulled $3B from high-yield mutual funds for the week ended May 23, the most in 9 months and a big change from the $36.6B poured into those same funds from January to April.  [View news story]
    There is a Martin Fridson who wrote a book 'financial statement analysis'. If this is the same person my hats off to you it was a great book.
    Jun 1 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedge funds and P-E firms have accumulated almost €60B to acquire loans from European banks that are looking to consolidate their ops, a PWC survey shows. Investors, most of whom are from the U.S., are particularly interested in loans backed by commercial real estate.  [View news story]
    imo good news for someone like a BX. See their purchasing (stealing) of eurohypo owned loans that are performing at good pricing a few weeks ago.
    May 21 01:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan Is Near A Buy Point [View article]
    get back on your meds zeus
    May 1 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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