Whitney Tilson confirms that he's giving up on his Netflix (NFLX) short position, citing a strong quarter that weakened his investment thesis, a survey that showed high customer satisfaction with Netflix's streaming service, and Reed Hastings' revealing letter which led Tilson to question his assumptions. Tilson had hinted at such a change of heart in a recent letter to investors. [View news story]
David White making small fortunes out of big ones LMAO. Whoops, time to watch now, gotta go. SVOSAVVY out.
Are Analysts Right About Berkshire's Valuation and the Possibility of a Dividend? [View article]
imo I agree with above poster about a dividend. Buffett believes in taking in dividends not paying them out. Given anyone else but Buffett I would disagree with that strategy. However, it is my take that Buffett is the ultimate bargain hunter, therefore, I would rest easy with Buffett holding my accretion were I a berk holder. That said it is my take that Buffett has made an "all in" bet on future inflation and should we see that future berk will be a big winner. Buffett has seen inflation before and knows how to handle it. I would evidence this through his recent behaviour which is: borrowing strong dollar today to buy undervalued railroad today, netting him big discounted future cash flows from said asset and paying that borrowed money back in the future with weakened dollars. A second example is his bond movements, from what I understand he is nearly "all in" short term maturities thus shielding him from extreme par buying power deterioration at rollover time. Public issues are getting very expensive here, Klarman is giving money back for lack of opportunities from what I understand. I would look for Buffett to hunt in the private market if he mimics past behavior when stocks get overheated. Just my uneducated opinion.
A Glance in the Rear View Mirror, and Peering Through the Windshield [View instapost]
OT,
Congratulations on a fine year. I am in the same camp as far as div reinvestment for now. Imho definitely time to start squirreling away a little dry powder. Long: ed pvx ge intc- - Ag chf cad TIPS. Bullish on fnfg but liquidated position for other opportunities.
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds to Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now. [View article]
Mr. Hastings,
Congratulations on building such a fine company. The service for the money is amazing. I am one of those evangelic customers. I thoroughly enjoyed reading Mr Tilson's thesis and your rebuttal. Mr Tilson issued an open invitation for dialogue and it was totally warranted in my opinion that you issue a response. Both of you ooze class and lead from the front in terms of corporate chivalry.
I am one of the cheapest cheapskates going. Seldom do I smile when money leaves my pocket, but, in this case it does because I feel satisfied. Honestly, I think your service is the smartest 10 bucks a month I spend. It's not smart on my part as a consumer to say this, but, I think you are in a fine position to raise your prices without severely impacting your churn. You raised from 8.99 to 9.99 and I don't think it will hurt you one bit. Honestly, I think you could get away with the 9.99 going to 12.99. Your "cigar butt" approach to obtaining streaming content is a winning formula in my opinion.
That said, I firmly believe the stock is richly valued here. No position on the stock just a happy customer. I am only an average joe and amateur hobbyist investor, but, generally when I short a stock I look for a lousy company delivering poor service that is poorly managed of which there is no shortage of on the open market. That is not Netflix.
Nice focus on the "junk". imo "junk" is a great versatile way to go. If eagles are your speed I have heard Blanchard & Co has pretty reasonable prices.
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
Your credentials and jargon are impressive and most definitely put me in my place. Obama aside, the consumer is a powerful force that guides the invisible hand. Cable "lite" packages coming out now, that is a 'tell' cable is worried imho.
"I would point out that I mentioned at least two possibilities for speed improvements in the comment just above yours.. One of them was a wireless system. Neither will likely occur within the next year." David White
This consumer shift that I speak of is a "years" story not a "year" story. I leave you now, bon soir et bon chance.
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
I read your reply carefully and thoughtfully as I do with most as it is my intent to learn and it is hard for me to learn when I am talking. It was my impression that you dismissed wireless as a triviality. I maintain that as in your last response it appears treated as such again. It would make me laugh heartily if this wireless buildout is what made John Chambers of CSCO so excited back in the late summer early fall if we will all recall. The response was tepid if I remember. Much the sentiment of 'what did they put in that guy's cornflakes?' Anyway, it is quite apparent to me that little knowledge or 'Alpha' is to be gained by the continuation of this, So, I thank you for the spirited debate. I know it made my grey matter less rigid. Disclosure: long humility, short exaltation. Nite Nite all.
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
Mr. White it is not my intent to provoke. However, I would like to defend my comments to you. It is my observation that you suffer from technical jargon bias for lack of a better term. I would describe this as a person of a "classical" bent to a fault totally ignoring "romantic" facets of the story. You have a sound argument based upon the variables you lay out, except that your seeming bivalent logic would have Stephen Hawking writing romance novels and Danielle Steele quantum physics. You close yourself to the idea of game changing variables also your perseverative inclination to fight trend. All of the masters state explicitly that a trend will continue until all of those who fought it are laid low. The most verbal representation of this is George Soros in The Alchemy of Finance. The cable company has fear mongered folks with the band width jam bugaboo for a couple years now. Bandwidth idea hasn't been this manipulated since Enron. I take this as the cable company is quaking in their boots, speaking of old low quality content, that is the cable MO for years. To me NFLX is the tip of the knife of a paradigm change that began a few years ago. I would know Reed Hastings spoke a couple years back about a few technologically forward consumers (me) who were hardwiring (pre cheap wifi) their televisions to their pc's. I was in this for the paradigm change which happens to be in the past the cable company dicates the place and time of broadcast even with a dvr(it is only a recording device). The future err... the present (now) is the consumer dictates place and time by accessing the data that is desired instead of sitting on a couch like a pile of turd and watching whatever is fed to you. Take a gander at why your local channels, the 2-13 ones were moved to digital signal and people were forced to give up their rabbit ears for dig boxes. That spectrum of the airwaves is going to be utilized for the most massive dedicated wireless buildout you have ever seen in your life. If you want to short someone, short the cable company. IMHO they will be relegated to an infrastructure play ie: wires in the ground as opposed to content. Take a look at the writer's strike a couple years ago digital content delivery the name of the game. Bottom line: in a liquid free market you will facilitate the needs of consumers or you will be buried (like cable). I admit you may be right there could be a kink or two on the way to the future of content delivery, and yes they may present decent shorting opportunities. I maintain that short of a near complete failure in NFLX this stock has owned you, period. Disclosure, I bought nflx stock a few years back then sold it a couple years ago in the upper-mid $30's for a nice profit at the time. Obviously at its current valuation this is a lost opportunity of a lifetime for me. It's like my unicorn, however, I enjoy watching it from afar. It is like a soap opera for me I have no current stake, however, she's a man eater that has feasted on a steady diet of your short (probably margined) capital.
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
"tunaman4u2: I actually have moved in and out" that's what she said ;)
Q:How do you make a small fortune? A:Take a large fortune and follow Mr. White's advice.
Mr. White's prolific stock talks are most annoying. I guess he has to keep in touch with his million-billion followers. Talk about manipulation.
Yes netflix is overvalued, so are lots of things. Could it be manipulated? Possibly, like many other possible things. You could be right, but, you have been so wrong what is your net result? You are comitting The Mortal Sin of trading which is not facing your losses. You reconcile your missed calls and make excuses by crying foul "manipulation" instead of owning up to it. You are your own worst enemy. I apologize for the scathing tone, I would only hope you recognize this and that it would help you be a better trader.
Cramer's Lightning Round - My Single Favorite Stock (11/12/10) [View article]
LOL. A few months ago he wanted these guys (AA) stricken from the dow. What a joke. Actually, if you want to use this as an indicator check out what he is saying about CSCO right now. Who knows maybe in a few months that will be his new favorite. He's a romantic in classic's clothing.
I would rather learn from NASA R&D than US military R&D, the human life cost is lower. A few really smart people burn up here and there or thousands of well meaning patriotic heroes die on foreign soil and are desecrated and taken for granted when brought home. Is all quiet on the western front?
Whitney Tilson confirms that he's giving up on his Netflix (NFLX) short position, citing a strong quarter that weakened his investment thesis, a survey that showed high customer satisfaction with Netflix's streaming service, and Reed Hastings' revealing letter which led Tilson to question his assumptions. Tilson had hinted at such a change of heart in a recent letter to investors. [View news story]
Are Analysts Right About Berkshire's Valuation and the Possibility of a Dividend? [View article]
A Glance in the Rear View Mirror, and Peering Through the Windshield [View instapost]
Congratulations on a fine year. I am in the same camp as far as div reinvestment for now. Imho definitely time to start squirreling away a little dry powder. Long: ed pvx ge intc- - Ag chf cad TIPS. Bullish on fnfg but liquidated position for other opportunities.
Tinsel Tuesday: Market Decorations Make Us Merry [View article]
Netflix CEO Reed Hastings Responds to Whitney Tilson: Cover Your Short Position. Now. [View article]
Congratulations on building such a fine company. The service for the money is amazing. I am one of those evangelic customers. I thoroughly enjoyed reading Mr Tilson's thesis and your rebuttal. Mr Tilson issued an open invitation for dialogue and it was totally warranted in my opinion that you issue a response. Both of you ooze class and lead from the front in terms of corporate chivalry.
I am one of the cheapest cheapskates going. Seldom do I smile when money leaves my pocket, but, in this case it does because I feel satisfied. Honestly, I think your service is the smartest 10 bucks a month I spend. It's not smart on my part as a consumer to say this, but, I think you are in a fine position to raise your prices without severely impacting your churn. You raised from 8.99 to 9.99 and I don't think it will hurt you one bit. Honestly, I think you could get away with the 9.99 going to 12.99. Your "cigar butt" approach to obtaining streaming content is a winning formula in my opinion.
That said, I firmly believe the stock is richly valued here. No position on the stock just a happy customer. I am only an average joe and amateur hobbyist investor, but, generally when I short a stock I look for a lousy company delivering poor service that is poorly managed of which there is no shortage of on the open market. That is not Netflix.
Best Regards,
Svosavvy
Today was the "worst day of the Obama presidency" - the tax deal unraveling, his political capital spent, upstaged by a former president and by the Senate's farthest-left Democrat. Joe Weisenthal says this may mark the day Obama "officially became a lame duck." [View news story]
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Investing in Silver in 2011 [View article]
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
"I would point out that I mentioned at least two possibilities for speed improvements in the comment just above yours.. One of them was a wireless system. Neither will likely occur within the next year." David White
This consumer shift that I speak of is a "years" story not a "year" story. I leave you now, bon soir et bon chance.
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
Q:How do you make a small fortune?
A:Take a large fortune and follow Mr. White's advice.
Mr. White's prolific stock talks are most annoying. I guess he has to keep in touch with his million-billion followers. Talk about manipulation.
Yes netflix is overvalued, so are lots of things. Could it be manipulated? Possibly, like many other possible things. You could be right, but, you have been so wrong what is your net result? You are comitting The Mortal Sin of trading which is not facing your losses. You reconcile your missed calls and make excuses by crying foul "manipulation" instead of owning up to it. You are your own worst enemy. I apologize for the scathing tone, I would only hope you recognize this and that it would help you be a better trader.
Cramer's Lightning Round - My Single Favorite Stock (11/12/10) [View article]
Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]