Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
Just got in and saw my monitor. Entire position liquidated at my limit 12.74 in the after hours. Fortunately, I have been more right than wrong on this position which I managed in Ohh8'& 0hh9'. I still am a big believer in the mega trends rotation cafe standard tailwinds. I just need a little time off, I've got gray hairs from these guys. All in All good work Klausy Baby, enjoy this win, these guys are about as hard to love as the buffalo bills. This thing could pop in pre markets and tomorrow's action, but, I'm just happy to be off the mechanical bull for awhile. I am a looker if I can get back in at a 10-11p/e to 2011's.
BTW, Monsieur Oxen, boyish good looks are not a bad thing, most old turds would die for them. TOG... Illegitimi non carborundum
I am not good at putting links in my comments, but, on this topic for an interesting read I would lead people to google sunpower (SPWRA) and their us gov't projects most notably their award of a major contract to Luke AFB. Just to disclose I have been in/out of SPWRA for the last couple years, I have recently closed (bought back) a leap put sale position in these guys, I have no current exposure to SPWRA. Just if you like alt energy meets US military it's kind of cool
Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
I mostly agree, AA stock price is profoundly correlated to LME Alum. pricing. Just something as an untested hypothesis on the side is alcoa's dividend status. It is my belief that alcoa is a cheap short and a nice proxy vehicle for profiting in down markets, based upon it being a serial disappointer at earnings and its low low dividend which means the rent is cheap if you want to hang out here on the short side. I think there could be an outside chance that some kind of dividend increase could raise the rent and flush some weaker handed shorts. Eventually someone at that joint should figure out that instead issuing truckloads of BBB debt in the 7's they could raise the divvy a couple ticks and get it into the %2.5's and a torrent of cheap stock money would flow into the coffers to help cover Raz Azzour. I mostly agree with your entry and exit points, I am looking at these guys making a little over a buck in 2011 and normalized p/e trends over the last decade minus the last couple years puts these guys in a peak/trough 12.5-20p/e imho. Says to me give it a year and if the world doesn't blow up $12.50-20.00 in a year. I wouldn't be dancing a jig to get in at these prices, but, crushing downside is something I just don't see right now. Long AA at a much lower strike.
3 Reasons the Dollar Is About to Rally: A Contrarian Case for the Greenback [View article]
the two hundred year trend is not your friend on this one. The dollar fell off a cliff with the initial passing of the "bush" tax cuts, and the "boot on the neck" of the dollar will continue with the extension of them, looking to double down in precious metals on the news of tax cut extensions for all. Voracious economic populism will ensure the new crop of politicians won't take in a penny of tax revenues and we will keep the spending the same because old people vote for their benefits. Just one man's opinion.
"The Fed still has a lot of arrows in its quiver" to boost the economy, and needs to focus on managing expectations, Fed's Kroszner says. The Fed should "do enough to satisfy the market that (the economy's) not getting into a disinflation situation, but not do so much that inflation's going to explode," he told CNBC this morning. Some economists, including Nouriel Roubini, believe the Fed is out of bullets. [View news story]
President Obama is a "defender of free markets," Paul Volcker tells Fox Business, "not a wild-eyed leftist radical." It's not surprising that "people are a little cautious about investing," he says, given the depth of the recession, but Obama is right to point out excess in the financial world - "and it happens to be accurate." [View news story]
Volcker is the undisputed king of fiscal responsibility, without him I wonder if we would still have a AAA rating as a nation. We owe a great debt of gratitude to this man. He has street cred. The appointment of Volcker to a meaningful position gives our creditors a bold statement that we are committed to taking the path of honoring our debts. I would like to state that Volcker is a resource and if the current administration snubs him it will be a lost opportunity. The name calling, honestly, you people should grow up, you know who sinks to name calling, someone who has no case. Long everything but the dollar until I see the whites of Volcker's eyes. And if you want to blame someone, blame McCain. I have nothing, but, the utmost honor and respect for him. He is a true American hero, but, the minute he invited Phil Gramm onboard it was over before it started. I bet gold goes down 5% instantly if Volcker gets welcomed into the fold in a meaningful way. Just one man's opinion.
An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
Klarman's worried about the dollar too, and for good reason. Yesterday that dollar/chf chart looked like Paul Mccartney at an alimony hearing. It turns into a real sticky trade when homebase(cash) isn't so homey. I agree groupthink on the dollar demise vs gold trade seems scary to me too. I am not a paper money fan by any means, but, one has to wonder what happens when we finally dig a hole to china producing gold (or any other PM for that matter) you know it just stays in above ground inventory. One thing the fed actually has done from time to time is contract the money supply (try to refrain from laughing too hard). Do we ever really see the gold supply contract? It's not like the central banks of the world say 'gee, there's too much gold floating around we should probably dig a hole and bury some or launch it into space or something' Anyway, being long things that are not dollars continues to work, so I'll worry about it another day. Bottom line is we all need liquidity in order to navigate the streams and rivers that are financial markets, but, it appears huber cash is the path of pain. I guess if I had a few billion dollars laying around I would buy a railroad too.
I agree here for silver and continue to wait for the 'mom&pop' trade to kick in. This last week's strong move is very convincing and agree that it feels more like the beginning than the end. IMHO there is a solid portion of the US population that an ounce of gold might as well cost a million, they'll buy silver. This point got driven home literally for me as I watched a crappy youtube vid a year or so ago of some mad dude smashing stuff with a slugger, venting about Goldman, and thinking 40-1oz slips of the white stuff is going to get him through armageddon. They are going to be passing those things at tea parties like condoms at woodstock.
Oh yes, I wholly agree regarding a pittance of a return on short dated maturities in exchange for the liquidity freedom that comes with not encumbering oneself with longer dated issues. That is why I positioned myself this way, I was just bemoaning the fact that I don't think I have ever received a coupon as low as I do now. The slightly higher yield on longer dated issues imho is a fool's game. I am nearly to the point of initiating a TBT position. STL fed Bullard's paper last month is worth reading imho, the parts I gleaned were in the last 300+ years the BOE has never let the borrowing rate fall below 2%, but, has stimulated more instead of falling below that benchmark, we are now 0-0.25%. That is important to me, and good or bad MSM seems to focus on the ten year, shooting from the hip here below 2% on the ten year is my bogey for the world ending. I think we go the other way though, hence my propensity for short dated maturities so I can roll positively into a steeper curve going forward. A steeper curve that is built upon the back of a weaker dollar. (Warning!!! Bowmore Islay Scotch influence read at your own risk) Since I am shooting from the hip, I want to make a prediction that if politically we turn more decidedly fiscal republican conservative going forward Mr Bullard's paper last month was a way of throwing his hat into the ring for chairman. I base this on his young clean cut good looks (palatable) and affable manner vis a vis passive/aggressive hawk/dove combined with my opinion that he is a clean fit (appointable) as someone like a Hoenig is too "hawkish" , but, Bullard is "just right." If you will allow a star wars analogy: Hoenig "sith master" Bullard "sith apprentice." Fed governors have diarrhea of the mouth recently seldom have I seen so many independant opinions outside fomc publicized. Uncle Ben is still my man like him or hate'm he was our cap't in the rough waters, there will be armchair QB's heckling him for years. I continue to be wary of Greenspan's "conundrum" in the years ahead. The counterintuitive behavior of rates in response to rate changes at key inflection points to me is a bizarre clue that the savings "glut" and increased percentage of emerging market dollar holdings has a contrarian effect, vis a vis emerging's markets saving propensity outweighs developed markets spending (wasting) propensity. If this comes to pass then down is up and we are on our way to a deflationary "lost decade". I can't believe this, however, as we I believe are a more dynamic culture that embrace destruction as part of the creative process. Embracing destruction will be the continual unwinding of out of the money assets held by institutions in expectations of redeploying liquidity in more realistic ventures. This IMHO is why we are different and that for honor's sake we swallow our pride reprice and move forward instead of the death cling until mark to model maturity.
My currency positions are my sideline cash of the portfolio. They serve mainly as liquidity and "foxhole" hedge, I was purely USD in spring'09 from there developed 50/50 weight into CAD/USD by summer '09. Net selling of some stocks and "in the money" options in the last month or so has doubled my sideline, this recent addition has gone to CHF. My main reason for diversifying my liquid cash is that I am concerned about the strength of the dollar, I am not looking to do great on this, merely trying not to get creamed. I have been of the mind that our recovery of the last year and a half has been built upon the back of the dollar, much like our wars alongside tax cuts. I believe the world is watching, and especially since the EU has taken some tough medicine, lack of political will aka "economic populism" probably punishes dollar power which pops anything denominated in them (including stocks). I am still a bailout backer as it is my belief we would have gotten the royal deflationary flush(which flushes jerks and virtuous indiscriminately). Those bonuses though man they torqued me royal. IMHO this talk of the fed having no bullets is nonsense they have a monetary machine gun with unlimited ammo. I have been scared of CHF/USD chart reversing for some time now as it has been thoroughly trounced for the better part of 8 years now. I agree with Buffett in that I don't like cash except for liquidity/bargain hunting purposes. I like my TIPS to be looong dated otherwise I have moved my bond positions to the short duration to mitigate par deterioration in the coming years, so I am getting nearly no yield now to bet that medium-long term rates rise with expectations of "inflation", I'm not in the hyperinflation camp by any means (credit has been too pounded for that), but, I think there is a trend/up-trajectory and I am not interested in fighting it, imho the trend is painfully obvious especially if you are stuffing a mattress, biblical folks may want to re-read the parable of the talents when it comes to digging a hole and (literal/figurative) burying your money. Take a gander at USD/CAD and CHF/USD long term charts. Since initiating CHF in the last few weeks the dollar has sunk approx 4% against it, that and The Great Roubini has been pimping the CHF at lake como.
Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
BTW,
Monsieur Oxen, boyish good looks are not a bad thing, most old turds would die for them. TOG... Illegitimi non carborundum
Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
Risk On, Or Off? [View article]
3 Reasons the Dollar Is About to Rally: A Contrarian Case for the Greenback [View article]
"The Fed still has a lot of arrows in its quiver" to boost the economy, and needs to focus on managing expectations, Fed's Kroszner says. The Fed should "do enough to satisfy the market that (the economy's) not getting into a disinflation situation, but not do so much that inflation's going to explode," he told CNBC this morning. Some economists, including Nouriel Roubini, believe the Fed is out of bullets. [View news story]
President Obama is a "defender of free markets," Paul Volcker tells Fox Business, "not a wild-eyed leftist radical." It's not surprising that "people are a little cautious about investing," he says, given the depth of the recession, but Obama is right to point out excess in the financial world - "and it happens to be accurate." [View news story]
Obama's Economic Team: What Did We Expect? [View article]
An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
An Interview With Seth Klarman: Opportunities for Patient Investors [View article]
You can buy it on amazon for $1500 LOL.
cheers
Will Silver Now Take the Lead? [View article]
Stealth Stagflation? [View article]
Oh yes, I wholly agree regarding a pittance of a return on short dated maturities in exchange for the liquidity freedom that comes with not encumbering oneself with longer dated issues. That is why I positioned myself this way, I was just bemoaning the fact that I don't think I have ever received a coupon as low as I do now. The slightly higher yield on longer dated issues imho is a fool's game. I am nearly to the point of initiating a TBT position. STL fed Bullard's paper last month is worth reading imho, the parts I gleaned were in the last 300+ years the BOE has never let the borrowing rate fall below 2%, but, has stimulated more instead of falling below that benchmark, we are now 0-0.25%. That is important to me, and good or bad MSM seems to focus on the ten year, shooting from the hip here below 2% on the ten year is my bogey for the world ending. I think we go the other way though, hence my propensity for short dated maturities so I can roll positively into a steeper curve going forward. A steeper curve that is built upon the back of a weaker dollar. (Warning!!! Bowmore Islay Scotch influence read at your own risk) Since I am shooting from the hip, I want to make a prediction that if politically we turn more decidedly fiscal republican conservative going forward Mr Bullard's paper last month was a way of throwing his hat into the ring for chairman. I base this on his young clean cut good looks (palatable) and affable manner vis a vis passive/aggressive hawk/dove combined with my opinion that he is a clean fit (appointable) as someone like a Hoenig is too "hawkish" , but, Bullard is "just right." If you will allow a star wars analogy: Hoenig "sith master" Bullard "sith apprentice." Fed governors have diarrhea of the mouth recently seldom have I seen so many independant opinions outside fomc publicized. Uncle Ben is still my man like him or hate'm he was our cap't in the rough waters, there will be armchair QB's heckling him for years. I continue to be wary of Greenspan's "conundrum" in the years ahead. The counterintuitive behavior of rates in response to rate changes at key inflection points to me is a bizarre clue that the savings "glut" and increased percentage of emerging market dollar holdings has a contrarian effect, vis a vis emerging's markets saving propensity outweighs developed markets spending (wasting) propensity. If this comes to pass then down is up and we are on our way to a deflationary "lost decade". I can't believe this, however, as we I believe are a more dynamic culture that embrace destruction as part of the creative process. Embracing destruction will be the continual unwinding of out of the money assets held by institutions in expectations of redeploying liquidity in more realistic ventures. This IMHO is why we are different and that for honor's sake we swallow our pride reprice and move forward instead of the death cling until mark to model maturity.
Stealth Stagflation? [View article]