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svosavvy

svosavvy
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  • Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
    Mr. White it is not my intent to provoke. However, I would like to defend my comments to you. It is my observation that you suffer from technical jargon bias for lack of a better term. I would describe this as a person of a "classical" bent to a fault totally ignoring "romantic" facets of the story. You have a sound argument based upon the variables you lay out, except that your seeming bivalent logic would have Stephen Hawking writing romance novels and Danielle Steele quantum physics. You close yourself to the idea of game changing variables also your perseverative inclination to fight trend. All of the masters state explicitly that a trend will continue until all of those who fought it are laid low. The most verbal representation of this is George Soros in The Alchemy of Finance. The cable company has fear mongered folks with the band width jam bugaboo for a couple years now. Bandwidth idea hasn't been this manipulated since Enron. I take this as the cable company is quaking in their boots, speaking of old low quality content, that is the cable MO for years. To me NFLX is the tip of the knife of a paradigm change that began a few years ago. I would know Reed Hastings spoke a couple years back about a few technologically forward consumers (me) who were hardwiring (pre cheap wifi) their televisions to their pc's. I was in this for the paradigm change which happens to be in the past the cable company dicates the place and time of broadcast even with a dvr(it is only a recording device). The future err... the present (now) is the consumer dictates place and time by accessing the data that is desired instead of sitting on a couch like a pile of turd and watching whatever is fed to you. Take a gander at why your local channels, the 2-13 ones were moved to digital signal and people were forced to give up their rabbit ears for dig boxes. That spectrum of the airwaves is going to be utilized for the most massive dedicated wireless buildout you have ever seen in your life. If you want to short someone, short the cable company. IMHO they will be relegated to an infrastructure play ie: wires in the ground as opposed to content. Take a look at the writer's strike a couple years ago digital content delivery the name of the game. Bottom line: in a liquid free market you will facilitate the needs of consumers or you will be buried (like cable). I admit you may be right there could be a kink or two on the way to the future of content delivery, and yes they may present decent shorting opportunities. I maintain that short of a near complete failure in NFLX this stock has owned you, period. Disclosure, I bought nflx stock a few years back then sold it a couple years ago in the upper-mid $30's for a nice profit at the time. Obviously at its current valuation this is a lost opportunity of a lifetime for me. It's like my unicorn, however, I enjoy watching it from afar. It is like a soap opera for me I have no current stake, however, she's a man eater that has feasted on a steady diet of your short (probably margined) capital.
    Nov 23 10:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why It's a Good Time to Short Netflix [View article]
    "tunaman4u2: I actually have moved in and out" that's what she said ;)

    Q:How do you make a small fortune?
    A:Take a large fortune and follow Mr. White's advice.

    Mr. White's prolific stock talks are most annoying. I guess he has to keep in touch with his million-billion followers. Talk about manipulation.

    Yes netflix is overvalued, so are lots of things. Could it be manipulated? Possibly, like many other possible things. You could be right, but, you have been so wrong what is your net result? You are comitting The Mortal Sin of trading which is not facing your losses. You reconcile your missed calls and make excuses by crying foul "manipulation" instead of owning up to it. You are your own worst enemy. I apologize for the scathing tone, I would only hope you recognize this and that it would help you be a better trader.
    Nov 23 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cramer's Lightning Round - My Single Favorite Stock (11/12/10) [View article]
    LOL. A few months ago he wanted these guys (AA) stricken from the dow. What a joke. Actually, if you want to use this as an indicator check out what he is saying about CSCO right now. Who knows maybe in a few months that will be his new favorite. He's a romantic in classic's clothing.
    Nov 15 10:34 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
    This was a poor comment. I don't really feel this way. I apologize.
    Oct 20 09:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
    I would rather learn from NASA R&D than US military R&D, the human life cost is lower. A few really smart people burn up here and there or thousands of well meaning patriotic heroes die on foreign soil and are desecrated and taken for granted when brought home. Is all quiet on the western front?
    Oct 10 10:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
    Yes yes, very wise. The cobra battles the mongoose, what happens if you eliminate the cobra? I dunno ask W.
    Oct 10 09:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    Ha ha I missed out on the christmas GOOSE ala JPM. I'll believe 1.38 2011 eps when I see it of course that may be in bernanke dollars.
    Oct 8 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    Just got in and saw my monitor. Entire position liquidated at my limit 12.74 in the after hours. Fortunately, I have been more right than wrong on this position which I managed in Ohh8'& 0hh9'. I still am a big believer in the mega trends rotation cafe standard tailwinds. I just need a little time off, I've got gray hairs from these guys. All in All good work Klausy Baby, enjoy this win, these guys are about as hard to love as the buffalo bills. This thing could pop in pre markets and tomorrow's action, but, I'm just happy to be off the mechanical bull for awhile. I am a looker if I can get back in at a 10-11p/e to 2011's.

    BTW,
    Monsieur Oxen, boyish good looks are not a bad thing, most old turds would die for them. TOG... Illegitimi non carborundum
    Oct 7 11:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alternative Energy Goes to War [View article]
    I am not good at putting links in my comments, but, on this topic for an interesting read I would lead people to google sunpower (SPWRA) and their us gov't projects most notably their award of a major contract to Luke AFB. Just to disclose I have been in/out of SPWRA for the last couple years, I have recently closed (bought back) a leap put sale position in these guys, I have no current exposure to SPWRA. Just if you like alt energy meets US military it's kind of cool
    Oct 6 12:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Pre-Earnings Analysis: Alcoa Has a Lot Going for It [View article]
    I mostly agree, AA stock price is profoundly correlated to LME Alum. pricing. Just something as an untested hypothesis on the side is alcoa's dividend status. It is my belief that alcoa is a cheap short and a nice proxy vehicle for profiting in down markets, based upon it being a serial disappointer at earnings and its low low dividend which means the rent is cheap if you want to hang out here on the short side. I think there could be an outside chance that some kind of dividend increase could raise the rent and flush some weaker handed shorts. Eventually someone at that joint should figure out that instead issuing truckloads of BBB debt in the 7's they could raise the divvy a couple ticks and get it into the %2.5's and a torrent of cheap stock money would flow into the coffers to help cover Raz Azzour. I mostly agree with your entry and exit points, I am looking at these guys making a little over a buck in 2011 and normalized p/e trends over the last decade minus the last couple years puts these guys in a peak/trough 12.5-20p/e imho. Says to me give it a year and if the world doesn't blow up $12.50-20.00 in a year. I wouldn't be dancing a jig to get in at these prices, but, crushing downside is something I just don't see right now. Long AA at a much lower strike.
    Oct 5 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Risk On, Or Off? [View article]
    You've got credit suisse taking the other side of that deutsche bank downgrade on alcoa.
    Oct 5 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Reasons the Dollar Is About to Rally: A Contrarian Case for the Greenback [View article]
    the two hundred year trend is not your friend on this one. The dollar fell off a cliff with the initial passing of the "bush" tax cuts, and the "boot on the neck" of the dollar will continue with the extension of them, looking to double down in precious metals on the news of tax cut extensions for all. Voracious economic populism will ensure the new crop of politicians won't take in a penny of tax revenues and we will keep the spending the same because old people vote for their benefits. Just one man's opinion.
    Oct 4 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "The Fed still has a lot of arrows in its quiver" to boost the economy, and needs to focus on managing expectations, Fed's Kroszner says. The Fed should "do enough to satisfy the market that (the economy's) not getting into a disinflation situation, but not do so much that inflation's going to explode," he told CNBC this morning. Some economists, including Nouriel Roubini, believe the Fed is out of bullets.  [View news story]
    QE ad infinitum, unlimited supply
    Sep 28 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • President Obama is a "defender of free markets," Paul Volcker tells Fox Business, "not a wild-eyed leftist radical." It's not surprising that "people are a little cautious about investing," he says, given the depth of the recession, but Obama is right to point out excess in the financial world - "and it happens to be accurate."  [View news story]
    Volcker is the undisputed king of fiscal responsibility, without him I wonder if we would still have a AAA rating as a nation. We owe a great debt of gratitude to this man. He has street cred. The appointment of Volcker to a meaningful position gives our creditors a bold statement that we are committed to taking the path of honoring our debts. I would like to state that Volcker is a resource and if the current administration snubs him it will be a lost opportunity. The name calling, honestly, you people should grow up, you know who sinks to name calling, someone who has no case. Long everything but the dollar until I see the whites of Volcker's eyes. And if you want to blame someone, blame McCain. I have nothing, but, the utmost honor and respect for him. He is a true American hero, but, the minute he invited Phil Gramm onboard it was over before it started. I bet gold goes down 5% instantly if Volcker gets welcomed into the fold in a meaningful way. Just one man's opinion.
    Sep 22 10:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama's Economic Team: What Did We Expect? [View article]
    There is a decent little article on the Harvard debacle from vanity fair awhile back. "Rich Harvard, Poor Harvard" by Nina Munk August 2009 I believe.
    Sep 22 10:13 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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